History Shows Underdog Cats Face Steep Climb at Ole Miss

Kentucky faces quite a tall task tomorrow in Oxford as 15-point underdogs to Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. Kentucky has been an underdog in plenty of games under Mark Stoops. But an underdog of more than two touchdowns has happened just 11 times in the last 9 seasons (first bowl team). Seven of those instances are against Georgia. Those 11 games:

UNDERDOG RESULTS

2024: Georgia (+21.5)
Result: Georgia 13, Kentucky 12 (Cover by 20.5 points)

2023: at Georgia (+14.5)
Result: Georgia 51, Kentucky 13 (Did Not Cover by 23.5 points)

2022: Georgia (+22.5)
Result: Georgia 16, Kentucky 6 (Cover by 10.5 points)

2021: at Georgia (+21.5)
Result: Georgia 30, Kentucky 13 (Cover by 4.5 points)

2020: at Florida (+24)
Result: Florida 34, Kentucky 10 (Push)

2020: at Alabama (+31.5)
Result: Alabama 63, Kentucky 3 (Did Not Cover by 28.5 points)

2020: Georgia (+17)
Result: Georgia 14, Kentucky 3 (Cover by 6 points)

2019: at Georgia (+23.5)
Result: Georgia 21, Kentucky 0 (Cover by 2.5 points)

2017: at Georgia (+23.5)
Result: Georgia 42, Kentucky 13 (Did Not Cover by 5.5 points)

2016: at Louisville (+28.5)
Result: Kentucky 41, Louisville 38 (Cover by 31.5 points)

2016: at Alabama (+37)
Result: Alabama 34, Kentucky 6 (Cover by 9 points)

First and foremost, that win over Louisville and Lamar Jackson in 2016 was amazing. I forgot Kentucky was THAT much of an underdog in that game. Beyond that though, Kentucky is 1-10 in these games overall. Obviously, you would not expect a team to win many games as a 2+ touchdown underdog. But break down the numbers a little more and you see:

HOME UNDERDOG: 0-3 overall, 3-0 against the spread (Average Score: Opponent 14, Kentucky 7)
ROAD UNDERDOG: 1-7 overall, 4-3-1 against the spread (Average Score: Opponent 39, Kentucky 12)

WHAT’S IT ALL MEAN?

In general, Kentucky does a pretty good job of competing on the road as a big underdog. The issue is when they don’t, it gets really ugly, really fast. A couple of notes:

1. They have been absolutely hammered 3 times and taking out the Louisville game, they are losing by an average of 31 points.
2. They have not scored more than 13 points in any of those games (sans Louisville).

My concern for tomorrow is that this offense has not really clicked yet. It just hasn’t. And historically, Mark Stoops doesn’t exactly open the offense up in these situations. He tends to lock it down. So all of those factors make me think unless the UK defense can put up an out-of-this-world performance, UK just won’t score enough to seriously threaten Ole Miss. Can Kentucky get to 20 points as an underdog tomorrow? All stats would say no.