How Bryce Hopkins' storybook matchup vs. Kentucky could backfire

Kentucky’s lowest-rated signee in the class of 2021 was the player garnering the most attention in the offseason leading up to the 2021-22 season. Whispers transitioning into all-out shouts regarding Bryce Hopkins‘ potential day-one production, albeit as a four-star, top-40 prospect.

“Bryce (Hopkins) has come in with a physicalness,” John Calipari said during the preseason. “He’s better than I thought.”

“He can really handle the ball, he can shoot the ball, he’s got a physical presence to him that you need to have with the positions he’ll be playing on the wing — playing some three, playing some four,” associate coach Orlando Antigua added. “He’s got a chance to be really, really good.”

“Bryce is incredibly versatile. He’s arguably one of the strongest guys on the team, just very physical,” guard Kellan Grady again stressed. “… He’s just a tough kid, he’s really going to battle. Bryce will have a big impact on our team.”

Kentucky’s missing piece at forward

It wasn’t just preseason fodder to build confidence for a player who needed a kickstart. Hopkins was hooping, fighting for not only a spot in the rotation, but starter minutes. He was everything the Wildcats hoped for when they pursued him out of Fenwick (Oak Park) High School, where he was named 2020-21 MaxPreps Illinois High School Basketball Player of the Year and Chicago Catholic League Player of the Year after averaging 24.4 points and 12.5 rebounds per contest.

The difference? Hopkins was the skilled, inside-out forward Calipari has simply never had at Kentucky. Signing the four-star prospect was a change in recruiting philosophy at the time, going away from length and athleticism to prioritize pure skill. Sure, he wasn’t a high-flyer with an insane wingspan and twitchy quickness, but the dude knew how to put the ball in the basket. Exactly the complementary piece the Wildcats needed, especially considering Keion Brooks Jr. and Jacob Toppin were better athletes than skilled forwards. Same with Daimion Collins. Oscar Tshiebwe and Lance Ware, they’re bruisers. Sahvir Wheeler, TyTy Washington, Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz and Dontaie Allen? All pure guards.

A season-altering setback

Hopkins brought something to the table no one else on the roster could as a hybrid forward. And then, a back strain, keeping him off the floor during crucial rotation-building weeks leading up to the season.

“He was probably the biggest surprise (before injury),” Calipari said at the time. “He’s got a strained back, so he hasn’t been as good. I’m anxious to see when he comes back.“

He missed UK Pro Day, but returned for the Blue-White Game, finishing with 18 points and nine rebounds. Then he played 17 minutes and scored four points in the first exhibition game vs. Kentucky Wesleyan, 11 minutes and four points in the second vs. Miles College.

Two minutes vs. Duke in the season-opener, then a string of four 10-plus minute efforts against no-name opponents — Calipari said “without (Hopkins) playing, we don’t win the game” vs. Ohio following his seven-point, seven-rebound effort in 16 minutes.

From December on, the four-star freshman hit the 10-minute mark just three times total. 12 minutes vs. High Point on Dec. 31, 15 minutes at Vanderbilt on Jan. 11 and 16 minutes vs. LSU on Feb. 23, his breakthrough performance. 13 points on 5-6 shooting and four rebounds, an effort that led Calipari to calling the 6-foot-7 forward a key to Kentucky’s postseason run.

“I think we’re gonna need Bryce on our NCAA Tournament run,” he said. “I’ve said it to you guys from day one. Some of it is he fought it. He fought it. He was behind some guys, they were playing well, and you had some opportunities you didn’t take advantage. But, he’s practiced, he’s being coached, he’s coming in the gym, he’s spending extra time. That was big.”

“I’m so proud of Bryce,” Oscar Tshiebwe added. “You don’t even know how proud we are of him. We are cheering for him. … I told him that this is your opportunity to show what you can do, and whatever you do, you’re forcing Coach to play you more. That is what it is all about.”

Hopkins would go on to play exactly seven minutes across six games the rest of the season. DNPs vs. Ole Miss, Tennessee (SEC Tournament) and Saint Peter’s (NCAA Tournament).

He would hit the transfer portal exactly three weeks later.

Falling short of conditioning expectations

The fact of the matter is that Hopkins simply never recovered in the rotation following his preseason back injury. All those whispers silenced in the tune of 6.4 minutes per game across 28 outings, tied for ninth on the team with Dontaie Allen. Lance Ware was the only scholarship player with fewer minutes (by .1) per game, and even he hit the 10-minute mark five times from December on.

Why? Calipari wasn’t shy regarding the reason for Hopkins’ limited playing time following the first-round loss to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s.

“He got behind some guys who were just better than him at this point and didn’t have the opportunities,” the Kentucky head coach said. “… You gotta come in knowing, lose some weight. Let’s try that one. Let’s get more consistent shooting the ball. You drive and your pull ups and your strength and your rebounding. Let’s get it to where you’re even more athletic than you are.”

And there it was. The body transformation — or lack thereof.

“When Bryce gets with a great strength and conditioning guy to get his body to an elite level, the sky is the limit for the kid. His skill set is where it needs to be,” the forward’s father, Clyde Hopkins, told KSR the day of his son’s commitment to Kentucky. “Once I get his body to an elite level, the sky is the limit for him. We’re up for the challenge.”

He came in as a freshman pushing 230 pounds, then worked it down to 222 in October, right before the regular season. But from there, it’s clear Calipari expected more. And more consistency, at minimum. Physically, he looked like the exact same player to close out the year as he was to open it.

Offensively, you can mostly work around it. He had the strength to be a power finisher, scoring almost exclusively as a one- or two-dribble slasher. He was able to knock down pull-up mid-range jumpers and the occasional catch-and-shoot 3-pointer — he hit five threes all year — but only glimpses. Defensively, though, you can’t be hidden. If you can’t stay in front of high-level athletes in the SEC, well, you won’t play.

And he didn’t, with lateral quickness and explosiveness limiting his production from taking off and keeping him off the floor.

A fresh start at Providence

Then there’s Hopkins’ side of the story. The 6-foot-7 forward transferred to Providence — the runner-up in his original recruitment — where he went on to average 16.1 points on 45.7% shooting and 37.8% from three to go with 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 34.8 minutes per game. He scored 18 points in his Friar debut, the first of 28 total double-figure outings — the same number of total games played at Kentucky. That includes nine 20-point games — one more than his 10-plus-minute outings in Lexington — and two career-high efforts of 29 points.

You get the picture. He’s been good as hell under head coach Ed Cooley, emerging as a grab-and-go forward comfortable bringing the ball up the floor and initiating the offense. Back to the basket or face-up, drive and finish or jump shot, he’s clearly comfortable in his own skin as a basketball player in the Big East. And to Cooley’s credit, he’s unlocked a lot of that.

“Obviously, the team is different, but he’s gotten better,” Calipari said during his call-in radio show Monday evening. “Physically, they’re playing him as a four, more like a big guy. They’re putting him in pick-and-rolls and isolations, pick-and-pops, screen for him a little bit, duck him in near the baseline. They’re doing good stuff with him, they really are. … (Ed) is a great guy, terrific coach. And he’s done a great job with Bryce. He really has.”

Hopkins was a first-team All-Big East selection, finishing with 10 double-doubles as Providence’s leading scorer. The player Kentucky saw glimpses of and whispered about last preseason became the college star the staff hoped he’d become — albeit for a different team in another conference, under a new coach.

Hitting “rock bottom” in Lexington

The same coach the Oak Park native admitted he wished he signed on to play for from the jump, one that’s allowed him to play with freedom. For a program that doesn’t make him feel he’s “under a microscope” or play “like a robot.”

“Doesn’t sound like a lot, but it means a lot, because you’re not having to look over your shoulder when you make a mistake,” Hopkins told Brian Hamilton of The Athletic back in February. “I feel like last year when I got out there, I was under a microscope. (Calipari) only wanted me to do certain things, and it was like I was playing like a robot. Now when I get on the court, it’s like Coach Cooley is allowing me to do whatever I want, but under his system. I just can’t thank him enough for that.”

The former four-star recruit used the same platform to express he was feeling “the highest of the highs” when he first arrived on campus, Calipari telling him he was “one of the best players on the team” and “was making a big name for myself going into the season.” Then after the back injury, he was left at the end of the bench, falling out of the rotation completely by year’s end. He played a combined 40 minutes from Jan. 15 on, one game with over five minutes — his breakthrough effort vs. LSU.

Then “the rock bottom of my career,” he says, watching his team lose to the Peacocks in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, not playing a single second.

“I was coming here, honestly,” Hopkins told The Athletic. “And then I had people in my ear telling me that I should go to Kentucky, just to see what I can do there. People were saying I could do it at that level, and I still feel I could do it at that level, but it just didn’t work out. But I don’t really know. I feel like the right decision would’ve been to come here first and then just go from there.

“As soon as I got here, Coach Cooley gave me my confidence back and made me believe that I’m the player I believe I am. And that’s big for me. … ​​I feel like I’m wanted and needed here, so that makes me feel like I’m at home.”

A pressure-filled matchup

Now, here we are. No. 6 seed Kentucky vs. No. 11 seed Providence, Friday night at 7:10 p.m. ET in Greensboro. A chance for Hopkins to take on his former team, one he feels didn’t give him the opportunities he deserved. And he’ll be matched up with senior forward Jacob Toppin, the player who took his minutes alongside Keion Brooks. Athlete vs. skill, the early-season excitement regarding Hopkins’ value on the Wildcats last year put to the test against the Wildcats this time around.

In a win-or-go-home scenario for both teams.

“J.T.-Bryce matchup? TOUGH!”

Jacob Toppin is ready to face Bryce Hopkins in the NCAA Tournament pic.twitter.com/PKDLY5hbE8

— Jack Pilgrim (@JackPilgrimKSR) March 13, 2023

“God works in mysterious ways,” Hopkins said after the NCAA Tournament draw was announced.

That’s a lot of pressure for a kid playing with something to prove against his former team. A chance to knock Kentucky out in the opening round after the same staff felt he couldn’t contribute in arguably the worst loss in program history, same round and all? As the opposing team’s star player, one expected to know the ins and outs of his former team, all the potential weaknesses and mismatch opportunities?

“It’s going to be a lot going through his head,” Ed Cooley said Sunday.

Including the ongoing speculation regarding his own head coach’s interest in the Georgetown job, which continues to ramp up by the hour. No denial of interest as of yet, three days away from the matchup. Certainly doesn’t help.

And then factor in Providence’s late-season struggles in general, losing eight of its final 15 games, including four of the last five and three straight to close out the year. Senior Day loss to Seton Hall, an 82-58 blowout at home. The Friars sit at No. 16 overall in adjusted offense and No. 108 in adjusted defense on the year, but just No. 25 and No. 158 in those categories since Jan. 14 — the start of the team’s end-of-year skid. 75.0 points allowed per game in that span.

A storybook matchup, sure, but certainly not a guaranteed fairytale finish for the 6-foot-7 forward who sought greener pastures last offseason. He may have found what he was looking for personally, but Kentucky has its own team goals to achieve, too.

Even if that means playing villain to make it happen.