How Kentucky Beats Iowa in the Music City Bowl

The Wildcats and Hawkeyes will run it back on Saturday in the Music City Bowl. The two teams faced off a year ago in the Citrus Bowl where UK beat Iowa 20-17. Kentucky is looking for consecutive wins over their Big Ten opponent and fifth straight bowl game victory. They’ll be doing so without the services of quarterback Will Levis and running back Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Iowa will not have its top two quarterbacks, but will have two defensive players with All-American honors. In other words, things could get very interesting and methodical. Let’s take a deeper dive. 

OFFENSE

Who will be the Wildcats’ QB1? We’ll see. Most likely it will be true freshman Destin Wade who takes snaps with the ones. Wade is from the Nashville area and was a high school superstar in the region. He was rumored to play against South Carolina when Levis was out due to injury, but Kaiya Sheron took snaps against the Gamecocks. Regardless of which QB is under center, the Wildcats are facing a Top-5 national defense in terms of total and scoring results. 

All-American and Butkus Award-winning linebacker Jack Campbell leads the Hawkeyes. Campbell is a highly experienced and effective defender that will influence the decision-making of UK’s unproven quarterbacks. Cornerback Riley Moss was an All-American a year ago and is a future professional. Defensive end Lukus Van Ness is a future pro off the edge and is a chaos-inducing player that the ‘Cats will have to account for at all times. 

In all, Iowa is the best defense that Kentucky will have faced in 2022. Iowa’s defense is a disciplined, well-coached unit that has given opponents fits this season. How can the ‘Cats attack this defense and win the Music City Bowl? 

Protect the Football 

Iowa sports a +4 turnover margin compared to -1 for Kentucky. It’s no secret that every inch of grass will be contested against this Iowa defense. The ‘Cats cannot pitch in help to the Hawkeyes by giving the opponent a short field or points due to turnover. UK has to win the turnover margin to have a chance to win. Zero offensive turnovers is the goal here. 

Strategic Explosives 

Kentucky appears to be the faster team on tape. Yes, Iowa’s defense is elite, but Kentucky will have strategic opportunities for explosive plays. These chances won’t happen often, but when presented with the opportunity, the ‘Cats have to pounce if given a window. For example, if Barion Brown or Dane Key gets behind the defense, Kentucky has to complete the downfield pass. Long scrimmage plays won’t be frequent. But, if JuTahn McClain pops a run, he needs to finish in the end zone. See the pattern here? One extraordinary or explosive TD could be the difference in the game’s outcome. 

A Punt is OK 

Opponents are converting 32% on third down against Iowa. UK’s 37% rate on third down has been an issue in 2022. The Wildcats will need to get and stay ahead of the chains. But, risky third-down play calls may play into the opponents’ hands. For a first-time starting quarterback, a punt can’t be the enemy. There’s no shame in kicking the football and giving the defense a chance to make something happen. Third downs will be critical in this one. 

DEFENSE

Iowa has a Top-5 defense. Kentucky’s defense ranks in the Top-20 in total (320 yards per game) and scoring (19 points) defense. This game has a defensive flare. The ‘Cats will be without linebacker DeAndre Square, DE Kahlil Saunders, and CB Carrington Valentine. While those three players are critically important, defensive coordinator Brad White’s unit has shown a knack for developing depth players into starter-level performers. I expect the same on Saturday. 

Iowa’s offense is not good, at all. Add in starting a third team and first-time starter at quarterback (Joe Labas), and one could project UK to have a significant advantage. The Hawkeyes are scoring 17 points per contest. That number ranks 123rd in the nation. The numbers get worse. Iowa averages 255 yards per outing. That number ranks 130 out of 131 teams. TE Sam LaPorta is an All-American and will be the focal point of the offensive game plan. 

Again, Iowa’s offense has not been good. There’s no candid way to paint a picture of an effectual unit for UK’s opponent. Let’s dive in, shall we? 

Defend LaPorta on Third Down

The Iowa tight end has over 50 catches and 600 yards. The Hawkeyes are converting on fewer than 30% of third downs and that was with its top two quarterbacks. Tight ends can be safety blankets for a first-time starting QB. I’d expect nothing less on Saturday. LaPorta is a future pro and one of the few Iowa offensive players that can hurt the Cats. UK has to find and defend LaPorta on the money downs. 

Don’t Give Up a Cheap Touchdown

Two offenses that have struggled will be playing with first-time starting quarterbacks in this one. Add in a 70% chance of rain and you may get a low-scoring slugfest. Kentucky can’t afford to give up a cheap score. This could come in the form of a trick play or missed tackles in a routine play that turns explosive. 

Can’t Help Iowa Be Bad

This is an odd category, but it’s fitting. Iowa is not a good offensive football team. Matter of fact, they’ve been really bad in 2022. Kentucky can’t assist Iowa in being bad. Stick with me on this one. For example, jumping offside on a 3^rd and 4 would move the sticks. Dropping an interception would also fit in this one. If the Hawkeyes are going to make mistakes, UK has to capitalize. The Wildcats’ defense has been disciplined through 12 games. That must stand true in Nashville. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Iowa has been super in the third phase out of necessity. With an offense that has been mainly inept, the Hawkeyes have made up for that deficiency by being tremendous in special teams. Field goal kicker Drew Evans is 16/18 for the season. Punter Tory Taylor is averaging 45 yards per boot. Winning ugly has been a theme in Iowa City. Let’s dive deeper. 

No Unforced Errors

This is a broad category. UK has been average at best in the third phase. Makeable field goals need to be made. Snaps must be accurate. The ‘Cats have suffered from missed and blocked kicks and untimely errant snaps in 2022. That operation has to be accurate and fruitful in order to win. With these two defenses and offenses, the outcome of the game could come from the team that has the highest percentage in the field goal/PAT category. 

Win Field Position

I’d expect a plethora of punts on Saturday. The ‘Cats can’t leak field position by a series of short, inaccurate punting or allow an explosive return. The punt team is one of the most important groups in this one.

What Does All This Mean? 

Kentucky will feature several youthful contributors in the Music City Bowl. I’m excited to see players get a chance on the big stage. Quarterback play could be an adventure. I also see it as an opportunity. Kentucky’s offensive play calling will be a joint venture amongst the offensive staff. I’m also fascinated to see how the unit’s operation adjusts in terms of eliminating the long play calls in the huddle and slow play. Simple could be better here. 

There are far too many indicators that suggest that this game could be ugly. Whichever team embraces the ugliness may be the game’s winner. Bowl games are unpredictable due to roster turnover. This one promises to be defensive in nature. In all, I’m excited to watch the young ‘Cats perform. A win will be a bonus added to the experience that players will gain in the weeks leading up to the Music City Bowl. 

There’s been quite a bit of positivity that has surrounded the Wildcat football program in recent weeks. A better-than-expected Signing Day and the potential return of Liam Coen have the BBN excited for the 2023 season. Mark Stoops gets one more chance to add to the 2022 win total in a trophy game on Saturday.