How Kentucky Beats Miami (OH)

It’s here. The longest offseason in all of sports has run its course. Kentucky football opens the season as the nation’s 20th-ranked team. Preseason projections are sky-high before the Wildcats host Miami (Ohio) on Saturday night. Let’s get into this. 

Miami is a favorite to reach the MAC championship game. The RedHawks are extremely well-coached and will test Kentucky in all three phases. But, Saturday will be more about Kentucky than its opponent. Expectations are colossal for Stoops’ squad. Predictions are largely based on quarterback Will Levis. The senior has enjoyed a fruitful and meteoric offseason. Miami head coach Chuck Martin also has an upper-echelon quarterback. Brett Gabbert led the MAC in passing last season. He will present a challenge to the revamped Wildcat secondary. The following are team goals for the opener. 

OFFENSE

Offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello will call his first game in Lexington against Miami. There are expectations that the ‘Cats won’t experience a schematic drop-off from the Liam Coen season. Some even say that the new OC is more creative than his predecessor. But, that’s yet to be seen during in-game action. Will Levis will have new weapons at receiver.

However, that position grouping is largely unproven outside of Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson who has yet to see action on Kroger Field. Gone are receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali who combined for over 60% of all UK receptions in 2021. Their collective target ratio was much higher. Replacing Wan’Dale could be more difficult than expected. Highly discussed true freshmen Dane Key and Barion Brown will make their college football debuts. The tight end room is said to be full of future pros and a strength of the team. Again, most offensive analysis is based on projection more so than proven output. 

The Big Blue Wall is reconstructed after losing three players to the NFL. Sustaining that high-level OL play is a tough ask. The interior returns the most snaps and is expected to be the up-front strength. But, there are questions about the grouping. This especially applies to the tackles. Chris Rodriguez Jr. will likely sit out. A deep collection of rushers will get a chance to earn carries against a RedHawk defense that was gutted by outgoing transfers. Transfer Ramon Jefferson was an FCS All-American and could see the majority of rushing attempts.

Back to the goals. 

Conservatively Productive

Miami lost five of its top six tacklers from a defense that allowed 369 total yards per game in 2021. UK should surpass their 425-yard average from last season. Just how the ‘Cats produce yards piques my interest. My guess is that Scangarello will take early, situational shots downfield. He’ll also get the football to his youthful pass catchers in space before leaning on the run game to close out the opponent. Yards per play is the key number here. The ‘Cats averaged 6.4 in 2021. A number over seven would be a productive outing. Florida is next. No need to open the playbook in the opener. 

70%

Will Levis has stated that he wants to increase his completion percentage from 66 to over 70. He should get his chance on Saturday against a reconstructed Miami defense. UK has a significant personnel advantage which means that passing windows will be broader than those against SEC foes. Levis’ decision-making process is what I’m looking for here. That metric will be reflected by his completion percentage. Please note: I don’t count drops or throwaways in my stat line. 

Chips and Help

Offensive tackle is a concern going into Week 1. Jeremy Flax appears to have locked down the right side. David Wohlabaugh, Deondre Buford, and Kiyaunta Goodwin are in the mix at left. If the tackles struggle in pass protection, Scangarello will use TEs and RBs to chip edge defenders to help the OTs. The fewer chips the better on Saturday. This will mean that the unproven OTs are winning one-on-ones. Miami’s top pass rushers are playing elsewhere this season. A total of less than two quarterback sacks would suffice. 

DEFENSE 

Coordinator Brad White is in year four as a play caller. His defenses have finished in the Top 5 in the SEC each year. Some say that 2022 has 2018 defensive vibes. We’ll see. That unit was special. A preseason concern surrounded the defensive line. But, Anwar Stewart’s group is deep and has enjoyed a positive camp. Most camp talks surrounded Octavious Oxendine and true freshman Deone Walker.

Inside linebacker is a loaded position and can roll three-deep. Senior DeAndre Square is closing in on the 300-tackle club and Jacquez Jones has received preseason All-SEC accolades. JJ Weaver and Jordan Wright are team strengths on the outside and are backed up by a couple of rookies that are said to be developing nicely. The secondary will feature newcomers via the transfer portal, including former Ole Miss DB Keidron Smith. Also, Carrington Valentine is in year two as a starting cornerback. Safety is a veteran group led by super-senior Tyrell Ajian and Jalen Geiger.

Let’s get into the defensive goals for Saturday.

Defend Passes

Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert can flat-out play. The junior completed 60% of his passes for 2,648 yards and 26 touchdowns a year ago. He only threw six interceptions out of 299 passing attempts and averaged 265 yards per outing. The Kentucky pass defense will get tested. UK’s pass defense led the league in 2019 and 2020 but dropped to eighth in 2021. 

WR Mac Hippenhammer is a preseason All-MAC selection and returns after posting 48 catches for 786 yards and five scores last season. The RedHawks also feature transfers at the position. Miami led the MAC in passing offense in 2021. UK ranked 11^th in the SEC in passes defended a year ago. The ‘Cats will get their chances to get into passing lanes to break up throws and intercept the football. Action or defensive hands on the football will provide a gauge here. 

Bend but Don’t Break

This philosophy was tested last season. Kentucky ranked 2^nd in the league in Red Zone defense in 2020 but dropped to 12^th after allowing 25 touchdowns in 38 opponent trips inside the 20-yard line in 2021. Miami ranked 11^th out of 12 MAC programs in the Red Zone last season. This is likely a product of being a pass-happy offense. The ‘Cats need to improve in the Red Zone — Saturday will present an opportunity. Zero RZ touchdowns would be key. 

Two Defensive Lineman Sacks

JJ Weaver is Kentucky’s designated pass rusher. Brad White will also situationally mix in linebacker and defensive back blitzes. The organic three-down defensive linemen need to prove the collective can get after the quarterback following the departure of Josh Paschal. I’ll be very interested in this development. Two sacks from the NT, DT, and DE positions is a realistic goal. Likely candidates to contribute to this total are Tre’Vonn Rybka, Darrion Henry-Young, and Kahlil Saunders. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Align

Week 1 special teams can get interesting. The chaos of the first game’s operation can lead to alignment issues in the third phase. There will be plenty of coaches counting players on the sidelines to ensure 11 are on the field. 

What Does All This Mean? 

Kentucky is a near three-touchdown favorite. Miami is an upper-tier MAC program with an excellent head coach and a dynamic quarterback which could make things a little interesting. I’m more concerned with the “How” Kentucky wins more so than the “If” with the Florida Gators on deck. I’ll specifically be dialed into the offensive tackles. The less required pass-blocking help from the TEs and RB the better. Creative coordinators can scheme around OT issues so it’s not a deal breaker. 

Projection is a dangerous and exciting term when describing football teams in August. I expect Scangarello to dial up a creative game plan but I’ve not seen it yet. I also think the receivers are going to create space and be dynamic after the catch. But, we’ve yet to see it in a game condition. I believe the defensive line will be a deep and impactful group, but there are new faces in starting roles. With no Rodriguez, the running backs will have a chance to get carries. I have to say that I’ve not enjoyed games without No. 24 24 on the field. While the rankings and predictions are sky-high with this team, there are also numerous unknowns.

Mark Stoops’ 10th team in Lexington will be on full display on Saturday in what should be a dress rehearsal for a Week 2 trip to the Swamp. The head coach will tie Bear Bryant for most wins in program history with a victory. A packed Kroger Field awaits while many of us will be fighting the computer to watch the game while listening to Tom and Jeff. 

It’s here.