How Kentucky Beats South Carolina

The bottom line is that Kentucky could potentially be without the services of their superstar quarterback Will Levis and right tackle Jeremy Flax for the South Carolina game. Talking about bad timing; an already ailing offense may see more struggles without these two in the starting lineup. Kentucky is currently ranked 13^th in the SEC after averaging 368 total yards per game and going for 5.8 yards per snap. UK’s offense was ranked 11^th in the league in that category this time last year before taking off under first-year coordinator Liam Coen. 

Additionally, linebacker Jacquez Jones is a likely no-go. While inside linebacker is a deep and skilled position group, Jones has played at an All-SEC level and will be missed. 

KSR’s Matt Jones tweeted on Wednesday that quarterback Will Levis is battling an injury and is questionable for Saturday. There’s no way to put this nicely, but Levis’ absence is a game-changer for the home team. Starting right tackle Jeremy Flax’s status for this week’s game is also in question following an apparent injury at Ole Miss. Flax was playing his best football of the season when the incident occurred. His potential absence would limit a position that has seen more than its fair share of struggles so far in 2022. With so much unknown in the personnel arena, here’s my best evaluation of how Kentucky can beat South Carolina. 

OFFENSE

First, the good news is that the Gamecocks are giving up 185 rush yards per game. Opponents are averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Both numbers construct the SEC’s 13^th-ranked run defense. This could be an avenue for the Cats to win the football game if Kentucky can actually produce positive rushing results. Through five games, Kentucky is ranked last in the league after running for 87 yards per contest and a 2.5-per-carry clip. It is noteworthy that QB sacks are deducted from rush totals, but the picture is clear that Kentucky has not been overly efficient on the ground. Let’s dive into goals for this week. 

Run the Football

For purposes of this post, let’s assume that Levis and Flax are not playing. The passing game could be a bit wobbly until replacements at both positions gain confidence. Kentucky may go back to its recent yet old-school ways by running the football straight at the Gamecocks. By doing so, the Cats would manage the clock and rely on their stingy defense to win the game. UK’s 87-yards-per-game average won’t get it done in this one. The Wildcats must exceed 175 to win. In summation, feed No. 24 the football early and often. 

Block

This is not solely a Big Blue Wall objective. Mark Stoops and coordinator Rich Scangarello both emphasized that run and pass blocking is an eleven-man operation. South Carolina has produced just four QB sacks in 2022. That’s good, or bad enough to rank last in the SEC and 126^th in the country. Carolina’s weakness in getting home to the QB could be a break for the Cats. UK has surrendered 19 QB sacks in five games, which is last in the SEC. For Kentucky to take advantage of this perceived flaw, it must block a couple of former 5-stars in EDGE Jordan Burch and DT Zacch Pickens. Carolina will blitz, twist, stunt, and dial-up all kinds of exotic pressures if Kaiya Sheron is under center instead of Will Levis. 

Run-blocking will be equally as important. First and foremost, Wildcat quarterbacks must identify and recognize where Nickel Cam Smith is at all times. He’s a dynamic playmaker and really makes that defense go. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has one game under his belt and I’d expect him to be more productive and utilized on Saturday. See above for more analysis. 

Touchdowns in the Red Zone

Insert “Broken record” remarks here. It seems as if this topic is a weekly focus. The Cats have scored TDs on 55% of its trips into the Red Zone. This is not good enough and led to a defeat in Oxford.  IF Levis and Flax are out, scoring touchdowns inside the 20-yard line will be mandatory. South Carolina is ranked last in the SEC after opponents have scored touchdowns on 74% of their Red Zone trips. Last week was a horror show in the Red Zone at the game’s end. The Cats were poised to score but turned the football over in the contest’s last two possessions. That can’t happen in this one which may feature very few possessions by both teams. Gotta make it count. 

DEFENSE

The South Carolina offense is averaging 36 points per game. That number is somewhat inflated after the Gamecocks flattened recent opponents Charlotte and South Carolina State by an average score of 53-15. Former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler has yet to produce the results that were expected and predicted at SEC Media Days. His season can be best summarized by his 4/7 touchdown to interception ratio. Running back Marshawn Lloyd has already posted six touchdowns and is running for 65 yards per game. Lloyd is a load and a very good running back. 

KSR football analyst Adam Luckett made an excellent point in his South Carolina Scouting Report by writing that wide receiver Josh Vann (5-11, 192, Super) and swiss army knife tight end Jaheim Bell (6-3, 232, Jr.) entered the season as potential All-SEC performers but have only received a combined 20 targets through 20 quarters of football. That’s not ideal. The Carolina offense is an average-at-best unit. Here are the goals. 

Get the Gamecocks off the Field

South Carolina isn’t great on the money down after converting 36% on third down. The Cats struggled early in the Ole Miss game to get Kiffin’s offense off the field. In a matchup that could mimic an NFL game, the Wildcat defense must give the football to the offense at a high level. What does that mean? Hold the visitors to less than 40% on 3^rd down. 

Get After Rattler

Rattler was rated miles ahead of Will Levis in the preseason by more than a few experts. Carolina has given up ten sacks this season. Problem is that Kentucky has only mustered just six QB sacks in 2022. To get the win, the Wildcats have to turn pressures into sacks. A goal for two is attainable here. 

Win the Turnover Margin

The offense has to help in this category. But, Rattler has thrown seven picks and the Gamecock offense has put the football on the turf on eleven occasions which resulted in four lost fumbles. Brad White’s unit has to take advantage of all presented gifts on Saturday night. A +2 in this category will be winning football. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

ALERT, ALERT, ALERT. Here’s where South Carolina can get creative in order to beat Kentucky. Gamecock head coach Shane Beamer is the son of legendary Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer. The elder Beamer invented “Beamer Ball” in Blacksburg which describes an unpredictable third phase that can win football games. UK can expect fake punts, on-sides kickoffs, exotic field goals and PAT formations. You name it and it may happen. Shane has carried on that family tradition. 

South Carolina desperately needs to beat Kentucky to sustain any resemblance of relevancy in the SEC East. Desperate times call for desperate measures. This could surface on special teams. The Cats were a wreck in the kicking game last Saturday at Ole Miss. But, Kentucky is excellent in other phases. True freshman Barion Brown is leading the nation by averaging 47.7 yards per kick return.

Snap, Hold, and Kick the Football Through the Goal Posts

Do I really need to get into this category again? UK missed a field goal and failed on two PAT attempts against Ole Miss a week ago. To describe the Wildcats’ kicking game as wobbly would be a compliment. The Cats have to find a groove in this area and score points when given opportunities. 

Be Alert

See above. Expect the unexpected from Shane Beamer. 

What Does All This Mean? 

IF Levis and Flax are no-gos, this game scares me to death. That is not a shot at Kaiya Sheron or Deondre Buford. If those two are forced into the lineup, I’m excited to watch them work. “Next man up” is an appropriate adage, but quarterback and offensive tackle are just different. Being without one of the two would be precarious. Down both Levis and Flax could be too much to overcome. 

Scangarello’s offense has relied on Levis to produce explosive plays by passing the football to exciting pass catchers while under duress. Expecting that same level of play from Sheron is unrealistic based on inexperience. Levis has been projected as high as the first player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft and is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. He’s a difference maker and Scangarello’s offense has run through him for five games. 

Additionally, taking the Cats’ best offensive tackle out of the equation is equally as disturbing. Backups at that spot have mightily struggled. So, what has the UK offense done well that doesn’t heavily rely on Levis? Not a lot. 87 rush yards per game is disturbingly bad. IF, and that’s a big IF, both are out, then No. 24 will have to take over the football game. 

While Kentucky could again potentially struggle on offense, the Wildcat defense has been extremely dependable through five games and should have the advantage in this one. That formula has won four contests but at some point in the season the offense will need to pull more weight. I thought this Saturday would be the perfect opportunity. That changed with the Levis and Flax news. I fully expect the earliest arriving crowd of the season to watch and monitor pregame warmups with hopes of seeing No. 7 and No. 77 full-go before kickoff. We’ll see. This game scares me.