How Kentucky Beats Vanderbilt

The 24th-ranked Wildcats play host to Vanderbilt at noon on Saturday. The Commodores have dropped their last five SEC matchups by an average 29-point margin of defeat. In fact, the SEC’s last-place team has lost 26 consecutive conference games. This is a game that Kentucky should win, let’s be honest. But, Clark Lea’s team has been competitive in recent action and has shown vast offensive improvement. Additionally, the ‘Cats have failed to separate from Power 5 competition on the scoreboard so this one may get a little uncomfortable at times. Let’s take a deep dive into Saturday’s game. 

OFFENSE

As mentioned on most all media outlets, quarterback Will Levis is fighting a multitude of injuries which has left the star signal caller battling to produce yards and points. The UK offense is averaging just 23.6 points and 341.4 yards per outing. Both numbers are at or near the bottom of the SEC. 

There are many factors that have led to a unit’s ineffectiveness. First, is Will Levis’ health. The projected first-round selection hasn’t been the same since UK’s trip to the Swamp. Additionally, an inconsistent and personnel-changing offensive line has not lived up to the Big Blue Wall standard set by the great John Schlarman. Arguably the program’s best running back, Chris Rodriguez Jr., missed four games to begin the season. After a hot start, the ‘Cat receivers seemed to hit a lull. Regardless of the why, inconsistencies across the board have been far too common and prevented the Wildcats’ offense from taking off. 

However, Saturday could be the day that Kentucky gets right on offense. Vanderbilt is allowing 36.8 points per game. For comparative purposes, UK’s top-scoring performance came against Youngstown State when Rich Scangarello’s unit put up 31 on the Penguins. The Commodores are especially weak against the pass after giving up 314 yards per contest. 53 tackles for loss is Vandy’s defensive strength. By game 10, teams are who they are. 

Vanderbilt’s defense is led by Anfernee Orji. His 90 tackles are tops in the SEC. The Commodore defender has also recorded 6.5 tackles for loss. UK must account for the linebacker at all times. With that said, here are the Wildcats’ offensive goals against Vanderbilt. 

Explosive Scores

Kentucky has struggled to score. That’s well documented. In what should be a wild December in terms of transfers and NIL, Scangarello needs to get his young pass catchers involved early by taking calculated home run shots. Barion Brown and Dane Key combined for eight catches and two touchdowns against Missouri. Both should heavily factor in Saturday’s plan given Vandy’s inept pass defense’s major deficiency comes against the pass. Opponents are averaging 9.1-yards per attempt and the Commodores have given up 20-touchdown passes. Of course, protecting a limited Will Levis is key. UK is allowing a whopping 3.89 QB sacks per game. The Commodores are registering less than two sacks per contest. So, this game is also an opportunity to shore up protection with Georgia coming to town next week. 

Explosive plays in the run game are also in play. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is working his way to the top of the all-time rushing list in UK history. He’s been close to popping a few runs but hasn’t recorded a long scoring rush this season. It would be advantageous for the him and the ‘Cats to rush for a touchdown of 30 or more yards. 

Stay Hot in the Red Zone 

Kentucky went 3/3 in Red Zone against Mizzou which was an improvement. The ‘Cats are scoring touchdowns beyond the 20-yard line on 60% of their tries for the season. Vandy gives up TDs 62.8% in the Red Zone. 75% or higher is the goal for Saturday. 

Score Early 

First-series scoring drives were common in 2021. However, that’s not been the case this season. Early touchdown-producing drives would go a long way in easing the tensions that have built up on the offensive side of the football. The objective is 10 points in the first quarter.

DEFENSE

I’ll say it again, by Week 10, teams are who they are. Kentucky is a defense-driven team led by a hotshot coordinator. The Wildcats are allowing 19.6 points per game which is good enough to rank third in the SEC. Additionally, Brad White’s unit is surrendering 302.4 total yards per contest which ranks second to Georgia in the conference and 11^th nationally. More of the same will be required on Saturday. 

Vanderbilt is dealing with injuries and the flu. Projecting personnel for the visitors is a little dicey. Freshman signal caller AJ Swann will not play against the Wildcats. This means that Mike Wright likely gets the start. Wright has enjoyed success against UK, especially in the Q-run. Vandy is averaging 26.7 points and 353.6 yards per contest. VU’s most efficient statistical category is its 74% Red Zone touchdown ratio which is top-15 nationally. 

Running back Ray Davis has been terrific. The Temple transfer has registered 731 rushing yards and 142 receiving. He’s scored seven touchdowns and is the focal point of the Commodore’s attack. UK will have to account for Davis at all times. Here are the goals for Kentucky’s defense 

Contain Davis

See above. Ray Davis is a Dude. The Vanderbilt running back ranks sixth in the SEC with 731 yards per game. His 82 run yards per contest is the focus of the VU offense. He’s also dangerous in the passing game. Limiting the RB to 75 or fewer total yards would be winning football. 

Force Vandy to Throw

Mike Wright is an excellent running quarterback. He has hurt UK in past games. The Wildcats’ game plan will certainly be focused on making Wright one-dimensional by taking away the run and forcing the visitors into certain-passing scenarios. The way to do this is to be strong on first and second downs which leads to a heavy 3^rd and 7+ down and distances. This also plays into “Complementary Football” and ties into the UK offense scoring early. That should make the visitors uncomfortable. 

Vanderbilt has thrown 18 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in 2022. The visitors also average 205 passing yards per contest. The Commodores are led by WR Will Sheppard’s 47 catches, 620 yards, and eight touchdowns. Those numbers rank 8^th in the SEC. Much like last week when UK pass defenders limited Mizzou’s top pass catcher to zero receptions, the ‘Cats will focus a great deal of attention on slowing Sheppard. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Where to start? Botched snaps, struggles in the FG/PAT team, and third-phase penalties have plagued the ‘Cats in 2022. Mark Stoops has stayed positive about this side of the football, but uneasiness surrounds the fans when discussing special teams. Something has to give. Improvements are mandatory. VU punter Matthew Hayball is leading the conference with 46.2 yards per boot. The ‘Cats will be fielding a new punter following the injury to Colin Goodfellow. Wilson Berry will get the start. Here are the objectives for Saturday.  

Snap and Kick 

Simple. Snap, hold, kick. This applies to the field goal/PAT team. The ‘Cats missed a couple of FGs at Mizzou but made all three PAT attempts. Stoops has confidence in Matt Ruffolo. It would be good for the super-senior and the ‘Cats to have a successful outing vs. the Commodores. Punt snaps have been somewhat tricky as well and something to keep an eye on. 

Score 

Normally this would apply to the return teams. It actually does, but also includes the above-mentioned FG/PAT unit. Points in the third phase would be a positive and quiet some of the critics that have been overly vocal.

What Does All This Mean?  

Vanderbilt is 3-6. The Commodores have been more competitive in recent losses to South Carolina and Missouri, but this is a game that UK should win comfortably. However, this version of the Wildcats has not shown the propensity to separate in games against SEC competition. Signs and numbers point to a Wildcat victory, but Vandy is still a team that can cause concern if the home team is not ready to play. Complementary football has been a push button for the ‘Cats. A game with success in all three phases would serve as a confidence boost to close out the regular season. 

The noon kickoff against a 3-6 opponent in cold weather is a backdrop for a sleepy start. UK needs to come out swinging and put this one away so youthful contributors can get meaningful snaps. Will Levis also needs rest. A fast start and sustained success could give Mark Stoops the ability to get two-deep snaps with Georgia coming up next. 

Vandy head coach Clark Lea is in a tough spot. A loss to Kentucky would signal another bowl-less season. His team is also dealing with injuries and now the flu has led to players missing practice and potentially Saturday’s game. Like Mark Stoops says, “Nobody feels sorry for you in this league” is fitting for this weekend. VU needs a win to stay alive. A Kentucky victory would move the ‘Cats to 7-3 with the Dawgs coming to Lexington next Saturday. 

A number to be aware of for this game is one. DeAndre Square is one tackle shy of the 300-tackle club. He’d be the second Wildcat in the Stoops era to reach this milestone following the great Mike Edwards. 

A much-needed three-game home stretch starts this weekend. This gives Mark Stoops a chance to put a winning stamp on an up-and-down season. UK is the better team but still needs to prove that on Saturday.