How Kentucky Beats Mississippi State

Kentucky’s back is against that ole familiar and proverbial wall. UK has frustratingly dropped two in a row, including its last loss that can be best described as an error induced meltdown against a so-so South Carolina team. No time to fret.  I’m moving passed the anger phase and have returned to my sunshine pumping normalcy leading up to Saturday night. Let’s get started, shall we? 

Mike Leach’s offense isn’t the Air Raid of old that was made famous by Hal Mumme and Leach in Lexington. The Pirate is running the football with power and his offensive scheme has evolved into a complete nightmare for opposing defenses. For example, the 2020 Mississippi State offense averaged just 43 rush yards per game for an average of 2.3 yards per carry. 2022 has seen much better results on the ground. MSU runs 107 per outing and 4 yards per attempt. Add in a plethora of pass catchers and a deadly accurate quarterback and you get an offense that’s averaging 461 yards and 39 points per contest. We’ll dig deeper in the offense later. 

The Cats have their hands full on Saturday night. This Miss State team is good, very good to be completely honest. For Kentucky to pull off the home upset, here are some objectives that must be met. 

OFFENSE

Some buy into the theory that a healthy Kentucky offense was ready to soar in week-six against South Carolina. Two injuries derailed that notion. Star quarterback Will Levis and starting right tackle Jeremy Flax were no-go’s and so was the Wildcat offense. 

For the second consecutive week Kentucky remains 13th in the SEC in total offense by averaging just 356 yards per game. The Cats stayed in the league’s basement in rushing with a 93 yards per game average. UK’s 2.6 yards per carry is also 14th in the league. The influence of QB sacks negative yardage and a high number of tackles for loss must be factored into those numbers. Regardless, Rich Scangarello’s offense has yet to take off and will face a tough and veteran 3-3-5 defense that has traditionally given the Cats fits. 

Miss State Will LB Jett Johnson is 4th in the SEC with 57 tackles including 2.5 for loss. He’s active and forceful against the run. Sam LB Tyrus Wheat seems to be playing in his 9th season in Starkville and has been productive after posting 25 stops, 2.5 TFL, and 2.5 QB sacks. Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes is playing that position as good as any defender in the nation. He’s picked off four passes and has registered six pass breakups to go along with 17 tackles. 

Here are some goals for the Cats. 

Run the Darn Ball 

Chris Rodriguez Jr. was brilliant in the first half against South Carolina. The senior RB recorded 16 carries for 97 yards. He finished the unacceptable loss with 22 rushes for 126. A bunch of 24 may be what the Wildcats need. MSU is ranked 7th in the SEC after giving up 139 yards on the ground this season. Opposing runners are going for a 4.5 yard per carry clip. 

The lazy take on this game is that Mississippi State is going to tell you that MSU operates at warp speed compared to UK’s methodical, huddling offensive operation. That’s simply not true. The Bulldogs are averaging 32:51 Time of Possession compared to 27:09 for their opponents. Remember, Leach’s Air Raid has evolved for SEC play. Kentucky will need to run the football effectively to keep Will Rogers and that potent offense off the field by rushing for 150+yards. 

PROTECT WILL LEVIS! 

Was the all-caps emphatic enough for you? Kentucky is ranked 129th in the nation after giving up 25 quarterback sacks. Protecting the recovering Levis has to be priority number one. Keeping the QB on his feet and clean in the pocket has not exactly been a team strength. 

Somehow, someway, that has to happen on Saturday night. I’m going with three or fewer sacks and that’s a big hope in this category. The left side of the offensive line played well against South Carolina and is settling in. The right side, not so much but it has gone through the most turnover. The five on the field have to be in unison to have a chance to win. 

DEFENSE

Let’s be honest again. The defense has carried this team through five and a half games. Brad White’s unit was uncharacteristic in the third and fourth quarters against South Carolina by missing a bunch of tackles and being out of position in pursuit angles. Listen, as good as that defense has been and is today, it was due a bad half. Very few defenses can sustain that level of play for 12 games. Regardless, UK is a Top-5 defense in the SEC in most all categories. Unfortunately, it’s gotten very little help from the offense and special teams. 

This Mississippi State offense is scary good. This especially applies to the Red Zone where the Bulldogs have scored 19 touchdowns out of 21 trips inside the twenty. As mentioned before, the running backs are special and game changers. Dillon Johnson and Jo’Quavious Marks have combined for 647 rush yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. Together, they’ve caught 50 passes for 339 yards. Leach’s deployment of the two RB’s is timely, accurate, and can be deadly for the other team.  

Quarterback Will Rogers is very, very good at the football game. He’s smart, protects the football, and distributes the rock to multiple skill players that can run after the catch. The Dogs are throwing for 355 yards per outing and averaging 7 yards per pass attempt. Rogers is completing 72% of his passes. Tackling pass catchers and those two bruising running backs will be vital if the Cats are to win the game. Here are some defensive goals for Saturday. 

Tackle

Leach will use a bunch of receivers that have caught a ton of passes to spread the field in order to find an advantage either in the box or in the secondary. When UK defeated Mississippi State in 2020, tackling in space was excellent as was keeping pass catchers in front of the zone defense. Both will need to be superb to get the W. I can’t emphasize enough that running backs Johnson and Marks are game changers and construct a great deal of the Pirate’s offensive plans. Got to get them to the ground. 

Will Rogers is going to get his. He’s too good of a quarterback and that system is too potent to ask for a shutout. But, a 4-yard catch can’t turn into a 16-yard run. A run in a pass look can’t leak into a 20-yard explosive. Tackle, tackle, tackle. 

Generate a Smart Pass Rush

Mississippi State has only allowed nine quarterback sacks. Rogers gets the football out of his hands quickly and is ultra-aware of pressures and blitzes. Kentucky has not been good at sacking the opposing quarterback. UK has recorded nine on the season. The Cats starting DT and DE positions have zero sacks and no tackles for loss for the season. Most, if not all pressures have come from linebackers and or defensive backs. The organic three defensive linemen, not named Deone Walker, must generate more production and havoc. Walker, a true freshman, is the top defensive line tackler on the team with 16 including 1.5 for loss. 

A smart rush can be described as staying in assigned lanes to the quarterback which prevents leakage by the signal caller that can extend drives. Miss State also hits draws and screens if it catches defenses out of position. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Oh boy. Where to start. Sorry, had to pause first. Mississippi State has scored 19 touchdowns in 21 Red Zone trips. Missing field goals and or PAT’s won’t cut it this week. It just won’t. UK has to score when it can score.  Also, punting has to improve from that 36-yard average from last week because giving Leach short fields on a consistent basis could spell doom. The goal is simple this week. Don’t have special teams’ errors that lead to catastrophic events. That’s not too much to ask. 

What Does All This Mean? 

Ole Miss was a disappointing loss. South Carolina was an infuriating defeat. The old mountain adage says that bad things come in threes. UK will need to play its best game of the season to not drop its third consecutive on Saturday night. I normally write more here, but that’s all I got to say.