How Kentucky Wins the Citrus Bowl

According to Iowa defensive back Riley Moss, Kentucky will be playing in its first bowl game in quite some time when the Cats take on Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. In fact, the Cats are playing in their six straight bowl game and will be seeking its fourth consecutive postseason win.

Iowa enters Saturday’s contest with a 10-3 record. The Hawkeyes averaged 5.6-points per game in its three losses to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Purdue. UK’s opponent has struggled offensively and won double-digit games with a turnover-producing machine of a defense and opportunistic special teams. Let’s take a look at what UK has to do in order to win the Citrus Bowl.

OFFENSE

The Wildcat’s offense has grown and significantly improved under first-year coordinator Liam Coen. His unit averaged 560.8-total yards and 46-points per game in November. UK’s offense runs through quarterback Will Levis. The signal-caller threw for 280-yards per outing and nine touchdowns during that four-game stretch. Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has also been playing his best football as of late. The junior has exceeded 100-yards in four consecutive games and is currently ranked second in the SEC after running for 106-yards per game. Coen will be without the services of senior receiver Josh Ali. His absence will likely force the Wildcats to focus on the play-action game that features receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and a group of tight ends. 

Iowa’s team strength lies within its defense. The Hawkeyes have produced an astounding thirty turnovers in 2021. That number includes 24 interceptions which ranks first in the nation. Iowa is a fundamentally sound, disciplined, and extremely well-coached defense. Its allowing just 19-points and 327-yards per game. Defensive end Zach VanValkenburg is the team’s top havoc producer after registering 12.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 quarterback sacks. Mike linebacker Jack Campbell’s 129 tackles rank second in the Big Ten. Cornerback Riley Moss is heading to the Senior Bowl after recording four interceptions. Dane Belton and Jermari Harris have combined for eight picks. Here’s what the Cat’s offense must do to get the win.

Protect the football

That’s it. That’s the key. UK and Iowa’s turnover margin couldn’t be much more different. The Hawkeyes are tied for second in the nation with a +14 ratio. The Cats enter Saturday at 127^th in the country with a -13. Will Levis has thrown 12 interceptions this season. Iowa has picked off 24. Iowa deploys a 4-2-5 scheme that relies on an umbrella-type pass coverage that puts defenders in position to enforce errant passes. Levis has to take care of the football. He will also need to be patient. Taking unwarranted shots against this team could spell doom.

Red zone touchdowns

Liam Coen’s impact on the 2021 season cannot be overstated. The Wildcats have drastically improved across the board. One substantial number lies within the Red Zone. UK scored 17 touchdowns inside the twenty last season. That number has jumped to 37 in 2021. Recent trends will need continuation if the Cats are to beat Iowa.

DEFENSE

Kentucky is allowing 337-total yards and 22-points per game. Both numbers are Top-5 in the Southeastern Conference. Iowa has been offensively challenged but boasts the best center in the country in Tyler Linderbaum and an All Big-Ten guard Kyler Schott. The Hawkeyes will be without the services of thousand-yard rusher Tyler Goodson. Even with Goodson in the lineup, Iowa is averaging a mere 120-yards on the ground. Its passing attack has lacked efficiency after throwing for 177-yards per outing. In all, the Hawkeyes rack up less than 300-total yards per contest. 

Quarterback Spencer Petras is completing 57% of his passes and has thrown for 1669-yards. He’s been intercepted on six occasions and passed for nine touchdowns. His favorite target is junior tight end Sam LaPorta who’s grabbed 46 passes in 2021. Let’s take a look at what Brad White’s defense has to do in order to win the football game. 

Be tough

The perception of Kentucky’s Big Ten opponent is that of a physical, downhill running team. While the Hawkeyes are strong up front, numbers don’t lie. Iowa’s 3.3-yards per carry doesn’t paint the picture of an effective run game. The Wildcats will need to counter Iowa’s physicality along the line of scrimmage. Nose tackle Marquan McCall’s matchup with the all-world center will be fun. UK gave up 17-points per game with McCall in the lineup compared to 32 when he was out due to injury. 

Guard the Middle 

Tight end Sam LaPorta is a legitimate threat. He’s recorded 46 receptions for 548-yards and scored two touchdowns. UK’s linebackers and safeties will be in a put into a difficult situation when matching up with the All-Big Ten tight end. Limiting LaPorta to below 50-receiving yards would greatly benefit the Cats.

Nothing Cheap 

Bowl games are random and can be quirky. TE Sam LaPorta is one of two players that put pressure on opposing secondaries on paper. The other is receiver Keagan Johnson who is averaging over 20 yards per reception. The Cats can’t afford to give up a cheap score on a trick play or have a busted coverage that leads to an explosive touchdown.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Iowa is all about defense and special teams. Both are excellent. The Hawkeyes have two special teamers that earned All-Big Ten honors. Kicker Caleb Shudack and kick/punt returner Charlie Jones have been stellar in 2021. Like all football games, the third phase will be critical. UK cannot afford a breakdown. 

Cover, cover, cover

Returner Charlie Jones is dangerous. The receiver is averaging over 26-yards per kickoff return. He’s also second in the Big-Ten after posting 8-yards per punt return.

Make kicks

UK is facing a Big Ten opponent. Field goals always seem to become significant when facing northern opponents. The Hawkeyes have a good one in kicker Caleb Shudack. Kentucky can’t swap threes with Iowa on Saturday. Matt Ruffolo will need to be accurate especially down the stretch. 

What does all this mean?

Kentucky and Iowa seem to be all-in on the Citrus Bowl. That’s rare by the way. Saturday could be a fun, legal brawl between the chalks. Both teams will be determined to be the toughest logo on the field. The Cats and Hawkeyes also boast Top-25 defenses. 

Turnovers are the key to this game. Iowa enters the contest ranked second in the nation with a +14 turnover margin and leading the country with 24 interceptions. On the other hand, Kentucky sports a -13 turnover margin and has thrown 12 picks. Simply stated, UK has to protect the football in order to have a chance. Non-negotiable.  

If you’re a fan of line of scrimmage play, then the Citrus Bowl will be in your wheelhouse. Kentucky features one of the top offensive lines in all of college football. It includes All-American tackle Darian Kinnard and All-SEC center Luke Fortner. Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum is an All-American and considered a Top-15 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. His matchup with nose tackle Marquan McCall should be fun to watch and be of some value to NFL scouts. 

Kentucky is the better football team. UK should win IF the Wildcats take care of the football. With a -13 turnover margin, that’s an enormous if. That said, I’m taking the Cats to win the Citrus Bowl.

Enjoy Orlando.