Illinois's up-tempo style of play will be very familiar to Kentucky

Kentucky ranks 4th in the nation in points per game at 85 bigguns per game. On Sunday in the second round of the NCAA tournament, they will face an Illinois team that ranks 6th in the nation in points per game at 83.9 per game. Kentucky has had mixed results against teams that have this up-tempo style of play.

The ‘Cats have played eight games against the top-10 scoring teams in the NCAA, not including themselves, obviously. That stat alone is crazy in and of itself, but in those games, Kentucky is 4-4. Their wins came against Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, and Missouri while the losses came against Auburn and three against Alabama.

Sure, there are a million other factors that go into how Kentucky will match up against Illinois other than points scored per game, but if we just focus on tempo, there are a couple of different ways to look at this.

Kentucky has mixed results against high-scoring teams

The bourbon-half-full viewpoint is that Kentucky has played great against teams other than Alabama and Auburn (the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament) who have a similar style of play as they do.

However, the drank-all-my-bourbon-and-now-my-glass-is-fully-empty viewpoint might argue Kentucky won most of those games several months ago when they were much, much healthier. With no Jaxson Robinson, a less-than-100-percent Lamont Butler, and now a new back ailment afflicting Amari Williams, Kentucky has averaged just 77 points per game in its three postseason contests.

This pessimistic mindset might also point out that Kentucky is at its best when playing against teams that struggle to score. See its wins against Tennessee and several other teams who rank lower than 100 in points per game, for example.

Illinois gives up a lot of points too

Okay, the Fighting Illini score a ton, but the good news is that they also give up a ton of points, too. Illinois ranks 234th in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up an average of 74.6. It isn’t like they have had a ton of high-scoring competition either. Maryland and Wisconsin are the only Big 10 Illinois opponents that rank in the top 50 nationally in scoring.

Compare this to Kentucky’s allowance of 77.3 points per game, which ranks 306th in the nation. Of course, as previously laid out, Kentucky’s SEC opponents are much more prolific scorers.

Analytics nerds would argue the more poignant number to evaluate is defensive efficiency, but that doesn’t bode well for ‘Cats. Illinois ranks 85th in the country in this category while Kentucky comes in ranked 182nd.

The conclusion? Kentucky is going to have to outscore a very potent offense on Sunday, something they have done with varying success this season. Can they do it again? Absolutely.