Inefficient Run Game was the Root of Most Kentucky Football Problems in 2023

Ray Davis was the offensive MVP for Kentucky in 2023. After the Big Blue Wall struggled in 2023, they righted the ship for forging a path for Davis to rack up more than 1,000 yards on the ground. He scored 21 touchdowns from scrimmage, leading the SEC and setting a new UK single-season record.

The Kentucky run game of old returned, right? Wrong.

The raw numbers look great, but if you take a closer look, Kentucky had one of the most inefficient running games in all of college football. Explosive plays masked the rushing attack’s problems, yet the domino effects were far-reaching and can explain why Kentucky lost to Clemson.

Explaining Running Efficiency

Kentucky either made big plays on the ground or got stuffed at the line of scrimmage. It’s illustrated by a stat called success rate. Success rate measures efficiency within the context of the down and distance to gain. A play is considered successful if it meets the following parameters:

• It gains 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
• It gains 70% of the yards required to move the chains on second down
• It gains 100% of the yards required to move the chains on third and fourth down

Chris Rodriguez and Benny Snell were efficient, albeit not very explosive. It was the exact opposite with Ray Davis and Co. Kentucky averaged 4.9 yards per carry (4th in the SEC) because they tallied 12 runs of 30+ yards (2nd in the SEC). On a down-to-down basis the Kentucky rushing attack ranked 90th in success rate.

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Consequences of an Inefficient Run Game

Did it ever feel like Kentucky perpetually lived in third and long? You’re right. Entering the final week of the regular season Kentucky had the longest average distance to gain on third downs. The offense finished the season converting 37.9% of their third down attempts, ranking 75th in the FBS.

Unable to consistently create manageable third down situations with an efficient run game, Kentucky operated a boom or bust offense. It cost them two wins over each team from the Palmetto State.

The Cats needed one scoring drive in the third quarter to deliver a dagger to South Carolina. Instead of feeding Snell or C-Rod to grind away the game and leave with a win, Kentucky got two first downs and punted three times until Devin Leary fumbled the game away.

Kentucky had Clemson on the ropes in the third quarter Friday afternoon. Barion Brown‘s return touchdown gave the Cats all of the momentum. What followed was their longest drive of the day — it last 8 plays and only went 18 yards, thanks to a few critical penalties. Instead of a dagger, three turnovers followed.

This is Why Kentucky Ran So Few Plays

How many times did you hear someone around the Big Blue Nation complain about the amount of plays the offense ran this fall? There aren’t enough fingers and toes to count.

Kentucky averaged 55 plays per game. It ranked No. 131 out of 133 teams.

There are many factors to blame. Most will say Stoops is too conservative. Others blame Liam Coen’s pro-style scheme. The inefficient run game is the culprit no one is talking about.

Kentucky couldn’t efficiently run the football, so they got behind the chains and went three-and-out. The Wildcats lived and died by the explosive play.

In the Gator Bowl against Clemson only one drive lasted longer than six plays. Every Kentucky scoring drive was finished in four plays or less. Some might think that’s good offense. The problem is what it does to your defense. Brad White’s unit kept Kentucky in the game until they ran out of gas in the final two minutes. The Tigers ran 80 plays to 51 from Kentucky. Clemson started four fourth quarter drives inside the Kentucky 40-yard line. That’s asking too much from the defense.

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Fixing the Run Game is the Top Offseason Priority of the Kentucky Offense

Part of the winning formula Mark Stoops created at Kentucky included an efficient run game the complemented the defense and helped put teams away in the second half. As the Kentucky offense evolves, the winning formula changes. You’ll expect to hear exactly what and how that might look like throughout the offseason. No matter how much it evolves, the Cats have to be better at running the football on early downs.

“We’ve gotta run the ball better. That’s something we need to address immediately,” Liam Coen said after the loss in Jacksonville.

“I thought we had kind of gotten it addressed at certain points in the season, but it did not remain consistent throughout the year. I’m not pleased with that at all. Our ability to run the football on first and second down is not good enough. It’s not physical enough. It’s not good enough at all and that’s something that needs to get fixed.”

Is Chip Trayanum the answer? The Kentucky coaching staff is betting that he plays a significant role in the solution to a problem that hurt the entire team.