Jack Gohlke picks Troy to upset Kentucky (and the analytics suggest it's not crazy)

In the least shocking news you’ll hear tonight, all-time Kentucky villain Jack Gohlke is continuing his hating ways, picking the Wildcats to repeat last year’s NCAA Tournament performance with a first-round exit.

The former Oakland guard released his official bracket for the 2025 edition of March Madness with one glaring pick that separates itself from the rest: No. 14 seed Troy over No. 3 seed Kentucky.

Gohlke, who dropped a career-high 32 points on 10-20 shooting from three in the Golden Grizzlies’ 80-76 win over the Wildcats last March, has the Trojans recreating that magic in Milwaukee. In this scenario, Troy advances to take on No. 6 seed Illinois in the Round of 32, the Fighting Illini moving on to the Sweet 16 from there to take on No. 2 seed Tennessee. The Volunteers advance to take on No. 1 seed Houston with the Cougars making the move to San Antonio for the Final Four.

Houston joins No. 2 seed Michigan State, No. 1 seed Florida and No. 1 seed Duke in the Final Four with the Gators and Cougars advancing, the latter winning the whole thing. Chalky McChalkface really going out on a limb there — although that’s not saying much, considering I picked the exact same Final Four and national championship in our KSR picks earlier in the day.

Crazy, right? No chance Kentucky could ever fall to Troy out of the Sun Belt, the Wildcats penciling in a spot in the Round of 32, at minimum. Right? Please?

Analytics guru Evan Miyakawa says otherwise, unfortunately. In a new update released late Monday evening, the popular basketball statistician shared some numbers that Big Blue Nation will not love.

According to his analytics, there is a 42 percent chance a No. 14 seed upsets a No. 3 seed this season, meaning Iowa State, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and, yes, Kentucky, are all vulnerable going into their matchups vs. Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Montana and Troy, respectively.

Of that bunch, though, the Wildcats have the greatest chance to lose, unfortunately. Miyakawa gives the Trojans a 20 percent chance to pull off the upset in Milwaukee.

The reason? Health.

“This probability would be much lower if Kentucky had a fully healthy squad,” he wrote.

There is a 42% chance we have a 14 seed upset over a 3 seed this year.

The most likely culprit is Troy, with a 20% chance of beating Kentucky. This probability would be much lower if Kentucky had a fully healthy squad.

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 18, 2025

Time to prove both Jack Gohlke and the analytics wrong, apparently.