Is this the year a Japanese horse finally breaks through in the Kentucky Derby?

The Land of the Rising Sun is a force to be reckoned with in international horse racing. Despite success in Dubai, the UAE, and the Breeders’ Cup, skeptics remain. They will not be silenced until one wins the Kentucky Derby. Could it be this year?

The success of Japanese horse racing starts with Sunday Silence, the 1989 winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He retired to stud in Japan and became the country’s leading sire for more than a decade. The success of his progeny paved a path to the Breeders’ Cup.

In 2021, two fillies from Japan won at Del Mar. Marche Lorraine was victorious in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Loves Only You won the Filly and Mare Turf. Their wins proved that Japanese thoroughbreds must be taken seriously.

Close calls for Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby

The perspective on the Japanese horses has changed drastically at Churchill Downs. There was skepticism surrounding their prolonged training style. When Lani arrived in 2016, the rambunctious colt became a punchline for getting aroused in the starting gate.

Derma Sotogake was the first serious Kentucky Derby contender who received plenty of positive pre-race publicity. He went off at 8-1 in 2023, but had a bad break out of the gate, ending his race before it started. Later that year, he proved he had the chops to compete in big races, running second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The baton was passed to Forever Young. The hype felt different last spring. He had the speed figures that convinced serious horse players that this horse was going to make history as the first Kentucky Derby winner from Japan. It went off to 8-1 and was a head-bob away from wearing the garland of roses.

Are these two good enough?

The ninth and tenth Japanese horses to start in the Kentucky Derby are Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona. The latter won the UAE Derby by a nose to secure a spot in the field. Luxor Cafe is a frontrunner that won by five lengths its last time out. Its sire is a horse you have heard of, American Pharoah. That will certainly draw interest from the casual bettor.

Traditional handicapping horses from abroad is difficult, which is why I trust the experts. Randy Moss is on the desk for NBC and is the mastermind behind the Beyer Speed Figures. That’s an expert to lean on. After studying Luxor Cafe’s previous races, he does not believe the horse is a legitimate contender this year, but that doesn’t mean one won’t eventually break through.

“I’ve been saying it for the last two years, and maybe even longer than that, it’s just a matter of time before the Japanese win the Kentucky Derby,” Moss said recently.

History is meant to be broken, but we might have to wait a little longer to see a Japanese horse in the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle.