Jay Bilas shares his key to a Kentucky upset at Alabama

ESPN’s Jay Bilas has the blueprint for a Kentucky upset.

The last time the Wildcats took on Alabama, the two teams combined to score 199 points and make 24 three-pointers in a high-scoring contest. Unfortunately, it didn’t end well for Kentucky, which came up short 102-97 on Jan. 18 in Rupp Arena. With round two in Tuscaloosa and Mark Pope missing a couple of key guards, it isn’t a shock to see Alabama favored by double-digits.

But Pope has pulled out these types of unexpected wins a handful of times already this season. How can Kentucky make it happen again tonight in Coleman Coliseum? Bilas has the formula.

“Kentucky is headed to Alabama. The key for Kentucky to win on the road is to keep the Tide out of the paint,” Bilas said Saturday morning on College Gameday. “Alabama shot 34 free throws in Lexington. They also made 13 threes, but it’s about how they get their threes — dribble penetration and getting a piece of the paint. Alabama has allowed 102 points per game their last two games on average, they’ve got to guard.”

In the first matchup, Kentucky fouled Alabama 25 times which led to a 29-34 mark from the free throw line for the Tide. Grant Nelson, who had a season-high 25 points in round one, and Mark Sears combined to shoot 17-19 from the stripe. UK actually finished with more points in the paint than Alabama (44-34), but the Tide were more aggressive at getting into the paint which led to endless foul shots and kick-out three-pointers.

Unfortunately for the ‘Cats, keeping Alabama’s guards out of the paint will be a tougher challenge than the last matchup. Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson won’t play tonight. That’s going to put plenty of pressure on the backup guards to defend on the perimeter and even more on the likes of Amari Williams, Andrew Carr, and Brandon Garrison to stop the penetration at the rim. Despite dropping its last two games, Alabama has still averaged 39 points in the paint.

But as Bilas mentioned, Alabama has to guard the ‘Cats. Even without Butler/Robinson, Kentucky has remained efficient (48.7 FG% over the last two games) but actually hasn’t scored more than 84 points since that loss to the Tide. Oddly enough, it’s been the UK defense picking up the slack as of late. Kentucky will have its work cut out for them on that side of the floor tonight though against an Alabama team in desperate need of a win.

Tipoff between No. 4 Alabama and No. 17 Kentucky is set for 6:00 p.m. EST on ESPN in Tuscaloosa, AL.