John Calipari says grad transfers will determine new roster moves

Is the Kentucky basketball roster finalized for the upcoming 2023-24 season? Well, maybe. Probably? John Calipari isn’t quite sure. As things stand today, he expects the current 11-man group to be the one we see during Big Blue Madness introductions in October with no additions.

But considering the current landscape of college basketball, he wasn’t willing to make any promises regarding potential changes.

“Will we do anything else? I don’t believe so” Calipari said Friday. “But what if this happens and that happens? Maybe we would. It’s a little different environment.”

Clear as mud. And that’s to be expected when grad transfers are able to hit the portal at any given moment, all the way through the end of the summer semester in August. As Calipari puts it, players will be able to play for one school in a foreign event in the coming weeks, then decide to transfer once graduate status is confirmed.

He predicts there will be at least ten players who decide to make such moves to close out the summer, two full months left of speculation. Some moves will be NIL related, some will be playing time related or other reasons. Either way, a late shake-up is inevitable.

“Because everything has changed, you have a lot of teams — they need guys,” Calipari said. “I’m going to make a guess, and I’ve been wrong before, but I would say 10 more transfers will happen. Maybe in August. So a team that thinks they have guys, you’re not gonna have that guy. Why would that happen? How could that happen? Transfer because they graduated from the other school. They can do that August 28 and transfer, because they graduated. There’s no time limit, there’s no nothing.

“My guess is at least 10 that’ll happen to. You can make a foreign trip, the kid had graduated and comes back home and says he’s going somewhere else. May have something to do with NIL, but may not be. This is all different than we’ve ever dealt with in the past.”

He looks back to last summer where schools built contending rosters in August. Until the NCAA changes its graduate transfer rules and creates a portal deadline for those student-athletes, that will continue this summer and beyond.

“There was an Elite Eight or Sweet Sixteen team that signed four in August. They signed four guys in August,” he said. “There are teams right now that may change in August because this guy or that guy goes with them. Until the NCAA gets its act in order, this is what we’re dealing with.”

Could a can’t-miss option present itself in the portal that forces Calipari to pivot in late August? Maybe. Are other schools hoping that’s the case with Antonio Reeves, who enrolled in summer classes at Illinois State before ultimately deciding to return to Lexington? Coach Cal says the fifth-year senior “doesn’t look like the same guy,” playing without anxiety and talking more, “just playing” like returning Wildcats do at Kentucky. He’s expected back without any hiccups, but as the UK head coach made clear, “It’s a little different environment.”

Calipari expects the 11-man group you see in Lexington today to be the same in October with no additions or subtractions. But until the NCAA establishes a reasonable graduate transfer deadline, nothing can be confirmed until late August.