John Calipari's early warning signs become reality for regressing Kentucky

“We’re not where we need to be right now,” said John Calipari. “… What we have to do to win at the highest level is going to take us a little time.”

That was on November 1, a bizarre warning from Kentucky‘s head coach leading up to the season. The timing was odd and the statement itself felt a bit coachspeaky. Six returning scholarship pieces — one being college basketball’s reigning national player of the year — to go with two five-star McDonald’s All-Americans and one of the top guards the transfer portal had to offer. On paper, the size, strength, speed, athleticism, skill and depth was all there, and it was seemingly confirmed in the Bahamas when the Wildcats steamrolled the competition with an average margin of victory of 50 points across four wins.

Then a complete preseason with no setbacks until Oscar Tshiebwe‘s knee procedure following the team’s Pro Day in early October. Sahvir Wheeler got hurt during exhibition play, but like Tshiebwe, the injury was expected to be minor.

Then came Calipari’s plead for patience immediately after. OK, gotcha, slow start with two key pieces out a week or two. Whatever, no big deal. That got flipped into a positive with more time for Cason Wallace at the one and Ugonna Onyenso at the five. Early struggles now, but greater rewards down the road when the games actually matter.

Then Michigan State happened, followed immediately by Gonzaga. You get a solid neutral-site win over Michigan in London — fool’s gold looking at where the Wolverines are now (7-4, No. 80 in the NET) — but follow it up with a mind-numbing offensive display vs. UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic leading to a 10-point loss.

Then came the SEC opener at Missouri, a chance to make a statement against a Quad 1 opponent to open conference play. The Tigers’ schedule was among the worst in college basketball with only one Power Five win (22-point victory over No. 16 Illinois) and a blowout loss vs. No. 4 Kansas. Their early success felt fluky, beating up on weak competition and getting hot with tough makes — that would certainly balance out during conference play, right?

Against quality competition in the SEC, maybe. That remains to be seen. Right now, though, Kentucky isn’t anywhere close to fitting that category. As things stand, the Wildcats aren’t just “not where we need to be.” They’re worse, and actively regressing.

Kentucky casually strolled into Mizzou Arena and got absolutely dog-walked by Missouri, losing 89-75 in a game that was never close. UK led once — up 3-2 less than two minutes into the game — and trailed for 38:51 by as many as 21 points. The closest it got in the second half was nine points on a 15-6 run, which was followed by an 8-0 run for the Tigers to push it back to 17. Every minor push made by Kentucky was met with a haymaker response, with Missouri ultimately pulling away to hand the program its fourth loss of the season.

Shooting? Terrible. You’re not gonna win games going 26-56 from the field, 8-23 from three and 15-24 at the line. Defense? Worse. Allowing 49.1/40.0/82.1 splits for Missouri simply won’t cut it. How about only 13 bench points for the Wildcats compared to 33 for the Tigers? Or only forcing eight turnovers and scoring eight points off those turnovers? Both pretty, pretty bad.

Maybe the worst of all? Team chemistry and body language, inexplicably poor. Oscar Tshiebwe admitted things aren’t where they need to be in those regards at this point. “I think we’ve got a lot of work we need to do,” he told KSR after the loss.

You’ve got players giving side-eyes to coaches on the bench while providing little to no energy on the floor, let alone production. The sulking is constant. Meanwhile, the Missouri bench is giggling at the ass-whooping its side is putting forth.

Adou Thiero fought when his opportunity finally came in the second half. Cason Wallace was assertive offensively and made shots, compensating for a few defensive lapses. The fight was there. Tshiebwe and Lance Ware, they fought despite falling short in other areas. You can work with that. The lackadaisical play elsewhere, though, is inexcusable and deeply concerning moving forward. How are you at Kentucky and don’t care (or come across that way, at least)? How can you have this spotlight, this platform and opportunity, but go through the motions here? Who half-asses Kentucky?

Somehow, those are questions we must ask about this roster. Do the players even like each other? Maybe they do, but it sure doesn’t come across that way for 40 minutes on game days. That’s an issue. If they don’t, fake it. At least give off the impression to opposing teams so they don’t see blood in the water from the opening tip. The Tigers sure did.

John Calipari has spent recent weeks tinkering with the lineup and rotation in hopes of finding the physicality and toughness his team is missing on the floor. It’s resulted in wacky lineups and the rotation both expanding and tightening from top to bottom. He’s turning guards into forwards and forwards into guards, going big and going small in hopes of finding something that sticks. There’s got to be a combination code somewhere in there to unlock this team’s potential.

The problem? We’re now 12 games into the season, over a third of the way through. You can’t kick that can down the road much further because the pavement is running out. It’s easy to be patient when you see the vision and continued growth, but that’s not the case with this team. As a unit, Kentucky is regressing by the game, specifically against name-brand competition.

How long can you blame the team’s struggles on missing open shots when the bricks continue to pile up? At what point is this just not a good shooting team? How long can you blame Tshiebwe’s missed layups and lack of feel on the “minor” knee surgery initially deemed a clean-up procedure? What about the turnovers that come as a result of being swarmed on every touch and his passing struggles out of double and triple teams? Will his production be Calipari’s safety net and his struggles become his crutch all season?

Maybe the breakthrough moments aren’t coming for the team’s potential-driven individuals, no matter how crucial their offseason jumps seemed going into the season?

What if there isn’t a combination that provides the necessary physicality and toughness to win games?

Will Kentucky’s identity crisis at the three and four eventually resolve itself? Or will the cream fail to rise to the top, which appears to be the case now?

Sometimes a magic wand doesn’t exist and a team simply is what it is. Playing for March is always the goal, building together as a unit in hopes of firing on all cylinders at year’s end to make a run. Key words there: building together. Thing is, nothing about this group indicates it is building toward anything together as a unit — there’s nothing cohesive about it. It’s a collection of individuals thrown onto the floor, a glorified pick-up team that coincidentally wears Kentucky across its chest.

Two months later, it’s clear Calipari stressing patience to open the season wasn’t coachspeak, nor was it random. He was getting a head start on the brutal reality that while the individual talent is there — “I love the pieces, I love the teammates” — this team simply wasn’t meshing. And at this rate, it’s not crazy to question if it ever will.