JT Toppin’s $4 Million Return to Texas Tech Shows Power of Pre-Settlement NIL Deals

We’re in a weird few months in a weird few years for college sports. All eyes are on California, where U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken is currently reviewing the House Settlement, which will bring a cap-based revenue-sharing model to name, image, and likeness and give the NCAA, schools, and power conferences more oversight. Until she approves it, programs are frantically trying to put NIL deals into place so they won’t be subject to the new rules. Today, we got a great example of that with the news that JT Toppin is returning to Texas Tech for another season.

Toppin’s return is the story of the day in college basketball. The Big 12 Player of the Year is one of the biggest stars in the sport, playing a key role in Texas Tech’s Elite Eight run. His return makes the Red Raiders a contender next season, which is why they were willing to ante up. According to Matt Norlander, Toppin is expected to be paid around $4 million in NIL earnings next season. While it’s wise not to put too much stock into NIL figures being thrown around on the internet, Toppin will be one of the top earners in college basketball next season, making way more than he probably would have had he decided to go pro.

Toppin was projected to be a second-round NBA Draft pick, going No. 45 in ESPN’s latest mock draft. Second-round salaries vary greatly, but on average, second-round picks typically make between $1 to $2.5 million per year. Houston guard Jamal Shead, who was selected No. 45 by the Toronto Raptors in 2024, signed a three-year, $6.1 million deal with the first two years guaranteed. Toppin is getting $4 million for just one season, during which he can develop further and potentially go even higher in the draft than he would this summer.

As Ross Dellenger, who has been on top of the NCAA/NIL beat for Yahoo Sports, put it, no wonder both sides wanted to get this deal done so quickly. Deals that are signed before Judge Wilken approves the settlement are not subject to the new enforcement as long as they are paid out by July 1. Deals signed after the judge approves the settlement will be subject to the new cap-based revenue-sharing model and enforcement clearinghouse for third-party deals worth $600 or more.

That’s why you’re seeing some crazy numbers out there, like $4 million for JT Toppin, or the $2.5 million South Carolina coach Lamont Paris said another SEC school offered Collin Murray-Boyles. That money won’t count against the school’s revenue-share pool cap (expected to be $20.5 million in year one) or be subject to the clearinghouse. Collectives, as we know them, only have so much time left to cook.

Some serious frontloading here as schools maneuver to spend cash before July 1, when compensation falls under the *new cap and enforcement entity.

*if the settlement is approvedhttps://t.co/spaaU98P3Q https://t.co/PLq7luxkTQ

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) April 9, 2025

What does this mean for Kentucky? First, I hope Otega Oweh has a deal in place to stay in Lexington because I’m sure he’s fielding lots of offers. On his final radio show of the season last week, Pope said that his staff is in a bit of a holding pattern until the settlement is approved, but they’ve already made plenty of moves. Kentucky has added four players from the portal so far: Tulane guard Kam Williams, Pitt guard Jaland Lowe, Alabama forward Mouhamed Dioubate, and Arizona State forward Jayden Quaintance.

“My understanding has been more of her deal to kind of at least take a few days, or maybe take a week, 10 days — there’s no definite timeline,” Pope said of when he expects Judge Wilken’s decision. “We’re just, in terms of that shift, we’re just in a wait-and-see mode, and then there’s all the complications of actually implementing the agreement and what that’s going to look like.”

Think of it this way: every day that goes by without a ruling from Judge Wilken is another day in the wild, wild west of NIL. What the future looks like once the dust has settled remains to be seen, but the next few days will be anything but boring.