Julius Randle or Noah Vonleh?

Back in November, the top three spots in the NBA Draft seemed to be certain. Everyone thought it was a done deal that Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Julius Randle would go 1, 2, 3 in some order. Then people found out that another Kansas freshman happened to possess freak of nature ability, and quickly Randle was replaced by the mysterious Joel Embiid. Now, Randle appears to be battling for a spot in the top 5 alongside Australian point guard Dante Exum, Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart, Indiana forward Noah Vonleh and Arizona forward Aaron Gordon.

Lately, though, there has become a battle within that battle between Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh. Some think it’s foolish for a team to draft Vonleh over the proven stud Randle. Some think it’s a no-brainer that Vonleh has a much higher ceiling and that it’s an easy choice to take him over Randle. Who’s right? Is there a right answer? Let’s take a closer look:

College Production: Julius Randle averaged 15 points and 10.4 rebounds per game for a team that made the national championship game, while Vonleh 11.3 points and 9 rebounds per game for a team that turned down an invitation to the CBI. Both players received massive attention from opposing defenses and even though Randle appeared to be a bit of a blackhole for most of the season, he progressed mightily by the end of the year in sharing the basketball. This one ain’t close. Advantage: Randle

Measurements: Randle measured at 6’9” with shoes on with a 7-foot wingspan which pales in comparison to Vonleh’s measurements of 6’9.5” with a 7’4” wingspan. Both players put up decent vert numbers with Vonleh’s max vert at 37 inches and Randle’s at 35.5 inches. The two also ran identical sprint and agility drills. Those numbers can raise some questions about Randle’s NBA future because one of the biggest knocks on him was his ability to finish well over length and in the NBA all you’re going to see are long frontlines. Advantage: Vonleh

Potential: Most scouts agree that both of these players are going to be very good in the NBA and that neither have scratched the surface of their potential. Randle could use some work on his jump shot, and that is a very doable task because he has pretty solid form on his jumper. Randle has decent back-to-the-basket game but where he can make a living in the NBA is with his face-up game. Adding a jump shot would make Randle’s offensive repetoire ridiculous and would make him a probable 20-per game scorer. Similarly to Randle, Vonleh also needs to become more consistent with his jumper (although not too the extent that Randle does). Vonleh’s jumper at this stage is much farther along than Randle’s, but Vonleh has the potential to stretch his jump shot all the way out to the three point arc whereas Randle’s is probably more limited. Advantage: Slightly Vonleh

Intangibles: This is an area where Randle excels. Julius possesses an extremely rare motor that allows to not only score effectively in transition, but it’s what drives him to be the incredible rebounder that he is. He is relentless in his approach and has that killer instinct and competitiveness that makes him a coaching dream. Vonleh, on the other hand, has had issues becoming “the man.” Often times last season he would hide and let Yogi Ferrell do everything for a team that was clearly struggling. When his back was against the wall, Randle put the team on his back, led a furious comeback, and went for 27 and 13 against a very good Michigan State team. That is something that Vonleh needs to work on massively at the next level. Advantage: Randle

Conclusion: You couldn’t go wrong by drafting either of these guys, but if I’m drafting a team I would still take Randle over Vonleh. Both players have high ceilings, but Randle is the much safer pick and you know he’s going to be a 17-point, 9-rebound per game player at some point in his career. Vonleh is more of a project and more than likely needs to be drafted into the right franchise in order to succeed.

@BWardKSR