Just How Daunting is Kentucky's Task at the Swamp?

The Kentucky-Florida match-up over the last 27 years.

This Saturday night, you and I will be joined by our old pal Brent Musburger as we watch the Cats take the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the mighty Florida Gators. Actually, I’m confident you and I will be there.  Brent’s availability depends largely on whether he can navigate through the next 48 hours without a Florida co-ed deciding that his creepy grandfather act has crossed the threshold from harmless old guy admiration to the middle of protective order town.  You’re looking LIVE at the Alachua County Justice Center… With or without Brent, the Cats, and their fans, are clearly excited about what is perceived to be a legitimate opportunity to erase an embarrassing few decades of futility against the Gators.  But with all of the positive momentum surrounding the Wildcat squad as they head into the Swamp, let’s take a moment to look at just how big of a challenge this game actually presents to the young Cats.

HISTORY:

The portion of the UK Football Media guide detailing the history of the UK-Florida series should come with a parental guidance warning.  It contains graphic images that may be disturbing to young viewers.  I can remember writing a post several years ago previewing this game in which I mentioned that if the losing streak to Florida was a person, it could drink legally.  (Which it probably would.) Now, based on statistics, that personified losing streak would have been married and divorced, live in a two bedroom apartment with a child support obligation and a prescription for antidepressants.  Twenty-seven losses in a row is a lot.  In fact, as you probably know by now, it is the longest active losing streak in FBS football for opponents that play on an annual basis.   What is even more discouraging is the nature of most of those losses, especially in the Swamp. In Kentucky’s last ten visits to Gainesville, the Cats have lost by an average score of 48 to 14.  Kentucky has given up at least 40 points in 7 of those games, at least 50 in 5, and has given up over 60 an embarrassing 3 times.  The Wildcat offense has not fared much better, having scored one touchdown or fewer in 6 of the 10 contests.  Even in the Muschamp era, in which Florida has been far more vulnerable, the Gators are 3-0, having outscored the Cats by a combined 110-17.

CURRENT ROSTERS:

So, in summary, the history argument does not bode well for the Cats.  But history is just that.  The previous 27 games are irrelevant when the game kicks off on Saturday night. How about the state of talent that will be on display on the field this season?  As Kentucky fans, our perception is that the talent gap between the rosters has shrunk significantly. In fact, I think this is the case.  Having said that, the talent gap remains sizable. It has simply shrunk from the size of the Grand Canyon to just a really good canyon.

Athlon magazine included an article in its annual football preview in which it attempted to rank college football teams solely on the basis of overall talent on their rosters.  Specifically, Athlon looked at each of the last 5 recruiting classes, and used average of finish to determine which schools had the most talent on campus.  Under this formula, the Gators tied with Florida State as having the second most talented roster in the country. (Soul-less football cyborg Nick Saban finished first, which is probably good, because as I understand it, he is programmed to destroy all of humanity if he finishes second.)  Florida has finished in the top 5 nationally in the final recruiting ranking in 3 of the last 5 years. For comparison’s sake, Athlon ranked Kentucky as having the 36th best roster, which was actually a little better than I would have predicted.

To take it a step further, I took a look at the depth chart of both teams to compare their respective talent pools.  In the Florida two-deep, the Gators feature an absurd seven 5 star players, more than the Cats can boast in the history of the program.  Beyond the super elite 5 star talent, Florida’s depth chart features twenty-five 4 star players.  That means that 32 of the 44 players listed on the depth chart are of at least 4 star caliber.  The Cats have had unprecedented recruiting success under Mark Stoops, and have unquestionably increased the talent level of the roster by an significant amount.  Still, the raw numbers simply do not compare to Florida’s.  Kentucky’s two-deep depth chart features zero 5 star players and eight 4 star players.  (Kentucky lists 12 starters on offense and defense due to their multiple formations.)  So while 73% of the guys who will play for Florida on Saturday are at least 4 star players, only 17% of Kentucky’s regulars will be.  

So what is the point of all of this?  Does this mean that Saturday night’s game will be another in a long-line of annihilations for the Cats at the Swamp?  Not necessarily.  I really wanted to provide the information above simply to underscore what an accomplishment it would be if the Cats pull off the upset.  And that is not beyond the realm of possibility.  High school talent ratings and history of match-ups are useful tools in predicting game outcomes, but they are not everything. I think it’s safe to say that Georgia Southern did not match up overly well on paper with the Gators going into their game at the Swamp last November, and we know how that one turned out.  Other factors can come into play.  For instance, when one of the teams is coached by a raving psychopath.

For the first time in several years, this Kentucky team feels good about itself. While Jojo Kemp’s words were not overly appreciated by Mark Stoops, I think they underscore this fact.  The Cats believe they can win, and they have just enough talent to compete if things break the right way.  That may or may not come to fruition Saturday night, but for the first time in a long time, I think we can expect to tune in Saturday night and know that number 28 in the streak is not a forgone conclusion.