A Trinity of Stakes on Easter Saturday at Keeneland

It looks like the nastiest weather is finally behind us. Hopefully the rest of the meet will be filled with blue skies and sunshine. We were able to uncover the winners of the Appalachian and Blue Grass Stakes last weekend as well as the big upset winner of the Commonwealth. Here’s our best effort to find three more on the second Saturday of the meet.

Race 8: The Giant’s Causeway

In a turf sprint without a plethora of heat on the front end, it’s hard not to like the speed of the speed. That looks like Elle Z in this case. She’ll be looking to hit the front early from her outside draw. A speedy daughter of City Zip, she’s won half of her 18 starts, having defeated multiple challengers she faces again today. There doesn’t appear to be anyone capable of matching her turn of foot from the gate, so the biggest question becomes whether she’ll be able to handle the likely give in the ground from overnight rains. History suggests that question is more than fair. 

Change of Control and Campanelle are both proven over softer surfaces. Campanelle figures to take more public money, at 5/2 on the morning line and hailing from the barn of turf sprint wizard Wesley Ward with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. The Kodiac filly is all class and certainly capable of finding the line ahead of the rest, but the value in this spot lies with Change of Control. Her two wins at Keeneland in four attempts came over ground labeled soft and yielding. She’s the defending champion of this particular race, yet she’s likely to be under-valued by the public. 

Several intriguing long shots include: Jouster, with a two-turn victory over the Keeneland lawn shortening up for Todd Pletcher, Headline Hunter, who seems to be improving rapidly for Jose D’Angelo, winning at a 31% clip this year, and Goin’ Good who ran a career best in her 4-year old debut for Brad Cox.

Race 9: The Grade 3 Lexington

Sophomore colts making a last-ditch effort to accumulate enough Derby qualifying points to enter the 20-horse field at Churchill in three weeks’ time fill the headlines in the Lexington field. Morning-line favorite Tawny Port has been more effective on synthetic surfaces. While it certainly makes sense for the connections to give this a shot following his runner-up effort in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway, this Pioneer of the Nile colt looks destined for the lawn sooner rather than later. Paco Lopez will undoubtedly look to control the tempo from the outset aboard In Due Time. 

The Not This Time colt has been given ample time to recover from his admirable runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth, and he just might get brave enough on the front-end to take this thing wire-to-wire. Ethereal Road looked like a real contender when losing the Rebel by just half a length. While he certainly didn’t have the best of trips in the Blue Grass last week, running right back in this spot at least partially feels like a desperate attempt from the Lukas barn to get into the Derby starting gate after thinking just a few short weeks ago that they would certainly be there.  That said, the son of Quality Road is every bit as accomplished as most in this field, and it would be no major shock to see the class relief do the trick. Midnight Chrome is definitely worth a play at his 20-1 morning line price. The son of 2014 Derby winner California Chrome ran 3^rd in the Remsen last fall at Aqueduct behind last week’s Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal and Blue Grass winner Zandon. Four of his 6 starts have come on the green despite a pedigree that suggests dirt might be his best option. Major improvement in just his third lifetime effort on the main track is a logical possibility. 

Call Me Midnight won the Lecomte over Epicenter, who will compete for favoritism in Louisville, but he was very disappointing in the Louisiana Derby when 6^th beaten more than 8 lengths. He looks like he is pace dependent, and the expected tepid pace in this contest should not be to his liking. Major General stumbled at the start of the Tampa Derby, then never lifted a hoof when trailing the field by 25 lengths. He wouldn’t be the first horse to despise the surface at Tampa but run generally well elsewhere. If you’re willing to forgive that non-effort, the two-year old form and connections become impossible to ignore.

Race 10: The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley

On paper, at first glance this appears to be a two-horse race with only one barn in the mix. The feeling here is that Shantisara is going to be awfully tough to beat in this spot. The three straight victories she strung together to complete her sophomore campaign were increasingly impressive, culminating in her tour-de force rampage over a yielding Keeneland lawn in the Queen Elizabeth. Few are better at getting horses ready to fire off extended layoffs than Chad Brown, particularly when it comes to fillies on the turf. It may be wise not to spend much time, effort or capital trying to beat the grade 1 winner from the Emerald Isle. 

Her stable mate Regal Glory is certainly no slouch, but the hunch is that the filly still has more upside to come while the mare might be a touch past her peak. Despite the considerable exploits of the top two choices, one must never forget that pace makes the race. Luis Saez looks to have it all his own way aboard Lady Speightspeare. While this is certainly a big jump in class for the daughter of Speightstown, she has the most dangerous weapon in the game at her disposal. Charles Fipke, Roger Attfield, and Luis Saez won the grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile yesterday with a son of Speightstown at 9/1. That same team will look to repeat the feat in the grade 1 Jenny Wiley over the same course, with a daughter of the same great sire and champion sprinter this afternoon.

Enjoy the nicer weather, best of luck at the windows and Happy Easter!