Keeneland: Trinity of Stakes Races Highlights Good Friday Card

Temperatures earlier this week hovered above 80 degrees here in central Kentucky, and the mercury will dip into the low 40’s with blustery conditions mostly prevailing over the next two days. Yes, springtime is most definitely upon us. While the weather will change spontaneously throughout the season, one constant that can always be counted on every April in Kentucky is the Keeneland spring meet. 

The most prominent race meeting in the country at this time includes precocious juveniles just starting their careers on the racetrack, as well as the most prominent sophomores in their respective divisions completing their last round of preparations for the upcoming Oaks and Derby, 70 miles west, in just four weeks’ time. Today is opening day at Keeneland, and the slate includes three high-profile stakes races, topped by the Grade 1 Ashland. It is the final prep for seven 3yo fillies hoping to earn their spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks.

RACE 7 – The Lafayette

Connections for the majority of these horses had hoped to find themselves in a Derby prep at this time, but fate dealt them a different hand. There’s certainly no shame in campaigning a fine sprinter, and several of these look to have bright futures around one turn. 

This looks like a tough spot for Gulfport to come back in his first trip to the post since a tiring, 3rd place finish in the Grade 1 Champagne last October. The rail draw certainly did him no favors with Hejazi and Corona Bolt both drawn in more ideal positions to his outside. The son of Uncle Mo will be under sustained pressure the entire way and might need an outing before he’s ready to meet that kind of challenge. 

Hejazi has plenty of early speed and should appreciate cutting back to one turn after an unsuccessful route attempt in the San Felipe. Speed figures suggest he could be the one to beat. Corona Bolt is undefeated sprinting. While he will face a much sterner test in this spot given the speed of Gulfport and Hejazi, Florent Geroux does have the benefit of being able to dictate terms from his post position outside those two rivals. 

If the top 3 burn each other out on the front end, both Lugan Knight and Determinedly appear capable of late runs to pick up the pieces. Neither should be dismissed given the likely pace scenario.  Lugan Knight owns a victory over the track, and Determinedly put in two very nice efforts at the distance last November.

RACE 8 – The Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes

Ample speed is signed on for this 3yo turf route, which you don’t often see in these races. Mi Hermano Ramon will most certainly break running as he exits two straight sprint races in southern California. Mo Stash, Candidate and Dude N Colorado all seem to prefer running from prominent positions early. 

While any one of those could certainly prove good enough to win, the overall pace scenario seems to favor a type that prefers coming from further back in the field. Nagirroc is clearly capable of such a run, having finished a strong 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over this course in November. This seems a lot to ask of him in his first start of the season. 

Carl Spackler and Wonderful Justice both have the look of promising young horses – it would not be a surprise to see either one of them reach the wire first. However, the search for value leads toward horses with a bit more experience.  Freedom Trail began his career with two wins on the lawn at this very distance, including a stakes victory in his second start. After a failed experiment on the main track, the son of Collected returned from a layoff with a rather flat effort at Tampa last month. He should be much sharper for this task, and he picks up one of the finest riders the world has ever seen in Frankie Dettori. 

Andthewinneris is 2 for 3 over the Keeneland weeds with a Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes triumph at the distance. He was beaten less than 4 lengths with a deceptively good run in the Breeder’s Cup. He endured a horrible trip in his latest effort at the Fair Grounds, which may give his backers a nice price in this spot. Expect this son of Oscar Performance to be rolling down the lane as they approach the wire.

RACE 9 – The Grade 1 Ashland Stakes

Pride of the Nile merits respect based on some solid runner-up finishes on the west coast. She had a nightmare of a trip in the Santa Ysabel, so that uncharacteristic effort can be forgiven. The Beyer numbers do suggest the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile would need to improve a fair bit to find the winner’s enclosure this afternoon. 

Punchbowl is perfect in two starts, showing a rather admirable measure of versatility in the process.  After enduring some trouble at the break in her maiden voyage, she passed every horse in the race over a muddy Oaklawn strip to beat two next out winners going away. She dictated terms in her next outing, drawing off to win by more than 4 in gate-to-wire fashion in her route debut. She owns the best speed figures of the bunch and appears to be a star in the making. 

Wonder Wheel is the likely favorite. Last year’s juvenile filly champion is 2 for 2 over track and trip, and has done very little wrong thus far in her career. While it may be disappointing to some that she could not get past Dreaming of Snow in the stretch of the Suncoast last time, the Tampa surface is not always the best to measure the greatness of an individual. The daughter of Into Mischief will be fully cranked and ready for her final Oaks prep, and it will certainly take a special filly to beat her.