Keeneland Weekender: Opening Weekend

Each Friday during the Keeneland spring meet I will preview some of the most noteworthy races of the weekend, offering handicapping insight and hopefully pointing out a few winners along the way.  Follow me on Twitter @chadlashbrook for more racing thoughts and analysis.

Nothing typifies the arrival of spring (current weather notwithstanding) in central Kentucky like the opening weekend of racing at Keeneland.  The picturesque track on Versailles Road just across from Bluegrass International Airport opens its 15 day 2017 spring race meet this afternoon with a 10 race card.  Saturday features 11 races, highlighted by 5 graded stakes races and anchored by important preps for the Kentucky Oaks and Derby in the Central Bank Ashland and the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes respectively.  A 9 race card including the Adena Springs Beaumont Stakes awaits race goers on Sunday.  Following are a few key thoughts on some of the more interesting races taking place over the next 3 days:

FRIDAY – 1:05pm EST First Post

One of my favorite things about the spring meet at Keeneland is that it signals the beginning of 2yo racing.  It is fun to visit the paddock and see some of the horses by stallions who have their very first crop of runners debuting and perhaps see some future stars that may return in the fall or in subsequent years to compete in stakes races.  Unique to Keeneland is the 4 1/2 furlong chute from which these juveniles will break for their first time in live racing action.  Keeneland racing secretary Ben Huffman wastes no time in getting the 2yos off the mark as a full field of 12 will go postward in the first race this afternoon.  The race features several interesting horses including Just Be Frank (#6) who blazed a half mile last week in :46 and 3/5 in his final breeze prior to this initial outing.  Baytown Lex (#3) is another with a strong work tab that includes two bullet works at the Thoroughbred Training Center prior to a solid half mile gate breeze over the Keeneland surface two weeks ago.  Jersey Town Cat (#2b) also put in a nice work over the track last Friday.  Fast works aside, all the attention from keen bettors will be placed on the two Scat Daddy fillies entered by trainer Wesley Ward.  Ward is simply a genius when it comes to these early season 2yo races, especially at Keeneland.  Last spring he won with 5 of 11 starters in 2yo races at Keeneland – a staggering 45% win percentage – and several of the 6 losses came in races where he had multiple runners and lost only to himself.  Hot jockey Jose Ortiz takes the mount on Kitty Kat Kate (#8), but I am more interested in Fairyland (#10).  She will have Julio Garcia in the irons, and the team of Garcia and Ward have combined to win at a 35% rate over the last year overall and 38% at Keeneland.  She faces a tough task breaking from the far outside post, but Fairyland should make your start to the 2017 racing season at Keeneland a winning one.

The perennial opening day feature is the Transylvania (race 9) which features 3yos racing a mile and a sixteenth on the grass.  While the Bluegrass on Satuday includes some of the most promising 3yo dirt horses, the Transylvania may actually have the most talented sophomore in the country, Oscar Performance (#4).  Following a lackluster debut last July, Oscar Performance uncorked three straight dynamic performances, winning by a combined 17+ lengths.  Most impressive was his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race in which he faced the severe disadvantage of having to break way outside in gate 13.  He assumed command while setting a solid half mile pace and won comfortably in good time over a field that included the best juvenile turf horses in America as well as some nice Europeans.  The Transylvania will be his first start of the year as trainer Brian Lynch gave him a 60 day break after his win at Santa Anita.  Cowboy Culture (#8) is another to keep an eye on for high percentage trainer Brad Cox.  He began his career with three straight wins before running poorly against Ticonderoga (#5) in the Palm Beach at Gulfstream.  Something seemed to be amiss with him that day as he was difficult to load in the gate, and he deserves his shot here.  Ticonderoga was very impressive winning the aforementioned Palm Beach and may well be the top threat to the expected favorite for trainer Chad Brown.  While that recent effort should give him a fitness edge over Oscar Performance, as a certified closer he will be at the mercy of the pace.  Pace makes the race, and Oscar Performance is expected to make all the pace as he is simply quicker than the rest of this field.  Unless another jock decides to take their mount out of their comfort zone and apply some early pressure on Oscar Performance, look for the son of Kitten’s Joy to take this field gate to wire.

SATURDAY – 1:05pm EST First Post

Bluegrass day is the highlight of the meet with 5 graded stakes races.  NBC Sports will provide live television coverage of the key Kentucky Derby prep.  TVG provides excellent daily, expansive coverage of the entire Keeneland meet with their onsite team headed by Todd Schrupp, Paul Lo Duca, and Caton Bredar.

The 3rd race on Saturday features the return of two very intriguing 4yos in Maniacal (#2) and Malibu Sunset (#7).  Maniacal was last seen finishing second in the Amsterdam at Saratoga at the end of July.  The horse that beat him that day, Mind Your Biscuits, just won the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan on the Dubai World Cup card two weeks ago.  Malibu Sunset blew away 7 rivals by 10+ lengths last January at Fairgrounds.  He was subsequently transferred to the barn of Bob Baffert, assumingly in an attempt to qualify for the Derby.  The horse apparently did not fit so well in the Baffert barn, and he now returns under the tutelage of the very capable Wayne Catalano, his trainer for that impressive debut.  Maniacal figures to be involved in what looks like a wicked pace duel with Control Stake (#4) and perhaps Woodland Walk (#1) and Homespun Hero (#5) as well.  That could set things up for Malibu Sunset who figures to come from just off the pace while cutting back in distance.

Graded stakes action kicks off in the 6th race with the Commonwealth, a 7 furlong sprint for older horses.  A.P. Indian (#8) will likely go favored for Green Lantern Stables.  The seven year-old had an incredible 2016, reeling off 5 straight stakes victories including the Phoenix here at Keeneland.  He has been working well for a high percentage off-the-layoff trainer in Arnaud Delacour and should be forwardly placed in a field that does not include a ton of speed.  Limousine Liberal (#3) came within a nose of defeating A.P. Indian in the Phoenix and makes his 2017 debut for impressive young trainer Ben Colebrook.  Ami’s Flatter (#7) is 3 for 4 at the 7 furlong distance and is cutting back off a 2nd place effort in the mile and a sixteenth Challenger at Tampa.  He won this race last year by closing into an honest, but not blistering pace.  Redesdale (# 5) is an interesting long shot in this field.  He is undefeated in three starts for Brendan Walsh, has improving speed figures in each start, and appears the most likely pacesetter in a race largely devoid of confirmed frontrunners.

The Shakertown (race 7) is a turf sprint for 3yos and up.  Mongolian Saturday (#6) is 2 for 2 over the Keeneland turf course, including a win over Shakertown rival Green Mask (#3) in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.  He looks to rebound following two subpar efforts in south Florida to kick off the year.  Rainbow Heir (#2), Green Mask, and Hogy (# 7) will all take plenty of betting action as it is difficult to separate any of the 3.  Two longer shots worth considering are Partly Mocha (# 8), picking up talented young rider Jose Ortiz off two straight wins in Houston, and Justin Squared (# 4) making his first start for Wesley Ward.  The latter will most certainly lead the field into the stretch, and in a race bereft of much early pace may have just enough gas in the tank to get the measure of them all at this 5 1/2 furlong distance.

The Madison (race 8) drew a field of 9 fillies and mares for an identical 7 furlong trip to its male counterpart, the Commonwealth.  Constellation (# 4) and Paulassilverlining (# 6) should vie for the early lead as well as the overall victory.  Constellation won the Grade 1 La Brea at the 7 furlong distance two starts back, and Paulassilverlining won 2 of her last 3 with the lone defeat a close 3rd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.  She makes her first start here for new trainer Chad Brown.  Paid Up Subscriber (# 1) also makes her first start for Brown and cuts back in distance after racing almost exclusively around two turns last year.  High Ridge Road (# 5) should be given strong consideration as well for high percentage trainer Linda Rice.  She most recently won the Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park in her first attempt at the 7 furlong distance.

Eight 3yo fillies are signed on for race 9, the Ashland.  The race looks pretty wide open on paper as this particular group leaves a bit to be desired as far as grade 1 races go.  Pretty City Dancer (# 3) dead heated for a win in the grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga last September, but there is some concern over whether she wants to go two turns or not.  Elate (# 2) has not yet lived up to high expectations for Bill Mott and Claiborne Farm, but it’s a bit unclear whether she even needs to improve on her prior form to beat this group.  Daddys Lil Darling (# 6) finished a good 2nd in the Alcibiades over this same track and trip in October.  She returns to the dirt after a 6th place effort on grass in the Florida Oaks.  Summer Luck (# 5) appears to be gradually improving with each start and will likely benefit from the added ground in her first start around two turns.  Tapped (# 8) ships in from California for Jerry Hollendorfer and could very well be the one to beat in this spot.

The Bluegrass (race 10) features 4 of the top 3yos in the country in McCraken (# 2), J Boys Echo (# 3), Tapwrit (# 4), and Practical Joke (# 7).  McCraken rates as the one to beat as he has done nothing wrong in four starts while improving his speed figures with each effort.  He has been training beautifully at Keeneland for the last 3 weeks and sits atop the 3yo totem pole until someone knocks him off.  J Boys Echo ran a big race when winning the Gotham at Aqueduct in his last start, and the 102 Beyer speed figure he earned in that effort tops this field.  Tapwrit was very impressive in his Tampa Bay Derby victory and Todd Pletcher, with his bevvy of Derby contenders, seems calmly confident with this colt in particular.  Practical Joke is the lone grade 1 winner in this field, having captured both the Hopeful and Champagne as a juvenile.  He must prove his ability to stretch out and finish strongly around two turns in this spot in order to continue on to Churchill Downs.  Who wins this race is anyone’s guess as the top 4 appear very evenly matched at this stage in the game.

SUNDAY – 1:05pm EST First Post

A short field of six lines up for the Sunday opener, but there may be some value to be had despite only having a half dozen starters.  Dial Me (# 6) figures to be a square price for hall of famer Wayne Lukas, and if you simply draw a line through her two turn races, her form in sprints is quite competitive with the rest of this group.  She ran a very solid 3rd here in the fall behind Lovely Bernadette, who went on to win the Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs in her next start.  She also owns the best one turn Beyer speed figure of any in this group with the 71 she earned two starts back going three quarters at Oaklawn.  In a small field where anyone could win, I’ll take what figures to be one of the longer prices on the board.

As mentioned near the top, 2yo races at Keeneland start and end with Wesley Ward.  Best of luck to anyone trying to beat Paris Cruise (# 10) and Happy Like a Fool (# 11) in race 2.  For the value shoppers out there, consider Our Girl Abby (# 6), who should be fit enough to compete off a steady series of half mile drills up the road at Turfway Park for Mike Maker.

A competitive field of six takes to the track in the 3rd on Sunday.  Lavender Chrissie (# 6) must be well thought of in the Dale Romans barn because she has not raced since November of 2015.  As a stakes winning earner of over $275k herself and a half sister to a grade 1 placed stake winner and a grade 3 winner, she could have fetched a very nice sum at auction for the West Point partners, but instead she makes her 5yo debut in this spot.  While she may need an out or two to get race fit, she did win her debut by over 5 lengths sprinting at Churchill.  The board should tell the tale of whether she is ready to fire fresh.  Lady Fog Horn (# 4) won 4 of her last 5 to close out 2016, including a victory in the grade 2 Falls City Handicap in Louisville.  She may be a slight favorite in what looks like an evenly matched field.

Race 7 is one of those stakes quality allowance treats that Keeneland seems to somehow serve up several times each meet.  Any one of the 10 entered could win this mile and a sixteenth affair for older horses on the lawn.  Take the Stand (#10) will control the tempo from the outset and is extremely dangerous if left unchallenged in front.  Divisidero (# 6) feels like the best in here.  He gets a rider change to Julien Leparoux who should fit this horse perfectly.  Flatlined (# 8) should not be ignored as he is cutting back to a much preferred shorter distance and will be highly competitive if he can repeat his effort in the grade 2 Fort Lauderdale over an identical route of ground.  Projected (# 2) is another interesting challenger making his 2nd stateside start for the powerful team of Juddmonte Farm and Chad Brown.

The featured Beaumont Stakes is the penultimate race on Sunday’s card.  Primary attention should be paid to Sweet Loretta (# 3) and Dancing Rags (# 5).  Both are returning off tough trips and poor finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last November, but both were grade 1 winners prior.  It’s difficult to separate the two at this juncture.  Dancing Rags won her grade 1 in the Alcibiades over the Keeneland surface while Sweet Loretta won hers (in a dead heat with Pretty City Dancer who races in Saturday’s Ashland) in the Spinaway at Saratoga at the same 7 furlong distance of the Beaumont.  Any winner other than those two is difficult to pinpoint and should pay quite well.

Best of luck and have fun at the races!