KenPom, Sagarin predictions for UCLA, Louisville games

We’ve discussed Kentucky’s 1-4 start ad nauseam. There were some glimmers of hope in the second half vs. Notre Dame, but the road gets much tougher for the Cats the next two weeks. On Saturday, the Cats travel to Cleveland to play UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic, and a week after that, they’ll head to Louisville to face the Cards. Right now, the KenPom and Sagarin ratings predict Kentucky will lose both games. The sample size is small and this is a weird year, but let’s look at the numbers.

Kentucky is No. 41 in the KenPom ratings. UCLA is No. 26 and Louisville No. 22. KenPom’s projections have Kentucky losing by a bucket in Cleveland and five in Louisville.

Right now, KenPom projects the Cats will finish with a 12-14 record, although that includes a 10-8 finish in the SEC.

Kentucky is No. 77 in the Sagarin Ratings, UCLA No. 30 and Louisville No. 14. For comparison, Morehead State is No. 302, Richmond No. 55, Kansas No. 16, Georgia Tech No. 60, and Notre Dame No. 82. Using the Sagarin Predictor numbers, the Bruins should be favored by 4.5 points and the Cardinals by 8.5 points.

Like I said earlier, it’s hard to put numbers on this season so far, especially when it comes to Kentucky; however, if the Cats are going to beat UCLA and/or Louisville, it’s going to take an even better effort than what we saw in the second half on Saturday.