KenPom, Sagarin Predictions for Kentucky's next three games

Kentucky’s loss to No. 21 LSU last night dropped the Cats to 11-3 on the season, but it didn’t do much to hurt their position with the computer models. The Cats are only down one spot in the NET and KenPom rankings, to No. 16 and No. 9, respectively. They’re still No. 12 in the Sagarin ratings as well, an indication that a loss to a ranked team with a great defense on the road is not a resume buster. Imagine if the computers knew the Cats were without their starting backcourt for most of the game too.

Where do the Cats go from here? Obviously, Sahvir Wheeler‘s status looms large. John Calipari did not have an update on Wheeler’s condition after the game but may provide one on his radio show tonight. Until then, let’s look ahead to what KenPom and Sagarin say about Kentucky’s next three games. Here’s where Kentucky stands in the rankings and ratings so you can compare them to the competition.

• Record: 11-3, 1-1 SEC
• AP/Coaches Poll: T16/13
• NET: 16
• KenPom: 9
• Sagarin: 12

Georgia Bulldogs

Sat., Jan. 8, 6 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), SEC Network

• Record: 5-9, 0-1 SEC
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR
• NET: 238 (Quad 4)
• KenPom: 213
• Sagarin: 174

Georgia fell to Texas A&M 81-79 last night to open SEC play, the Bulldogs’ third-straight loss. Even though they have that weird 3-point win over then-No. 18 Memphis on the resume, the Fighting Tom Creans are not good; in fact, they’re the worst team left on Kentucky’s schedule according to all three computer models (NET, KenPom, Sagarin). Even if Sahvir Wheeler can’t play vs. his old team, the Cats shouldn’t have an issue taking care of business at Rupp on Saturday.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -20.5

KenPom: Kentucky 86, Georgia 63 (98% chance of winning)

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Vanderbilt Commodores

Tues., Jan. 11, 7 p.m., Memorial Gymnasium (Nashville, TN), ESPN/ESPN2

• Record: 9-4, 1-0 SEC
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR
• NET: 73 (Quad 1)
• KenPom: 68
• Sagarin: 75

Is it time to start giving the Commodores some respect? Last night, they knocked off Arkansas in Bud Walton Arena, no small feat. It was the ‘Dores fourth straight win and came on the heels of a 12-day break after a COVID cancellation vs. Stanford (on Stanford’s side). Prior to the break, Vanderbilt beat BYU in the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic, a Quad 1 victory. With Scotty Pippen Jr. still leading the charge, anything can happen in Memorial Gym, but the computer models show a six-point Kentucky win. As of today’s NET rankings, that would be a Quad 1 win, believe it or not.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -6.5

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Vanderbilt 66 (72% chance of winning)

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Tennessee Volunteers

Sat., Jan. 15, 1 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

• Record: 9-3, 0-1 SEC
• AP/Coaches Poll: 18/18
• NET: 9 (Quad 1)
• KenPom: 14
• Sagarin: 14

Tennessee beat then-No. 6 Arizona on Dec. 22 and a week later, lost to No. 19 Alabama by five in Tuscaloosa. The Vols were without their two best players, Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson (grr, Fulkie), vs. the Crimson Tide due to COVID-19 protocols. Both will be available tonight as the Vols host Ole Miss. Kentucky hasn’t beaten Tennessee at Rupp since February 2019. For now, the computer models are calling for that streak to break a week from Saturday.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -3

KenPom: Kentucky 73, Tennessee 69 (64% chance of winning)