Kentucky's History Against the SEC's Worst Offense

Obviously, still a long way to go in this college football season but if Week 1 is any indication, it appears that South Carolina could have the SEC’s worst offense this season. The Gamecocks were largely stymied by Old Dominion and can’t come into Kroger Field tomorrow with much confidence. Rec Specs McGee and the offense will largely lean on their rushing attack to try and beat Kentucky tomorrow, although that appears to play into UK’s strengths as well.

Since Mark Stoops arrived, a total of 9 of his 11 teams have played the SEC’s worst offense, by points per game, during the season. In 2018, Kentucky did not play Arkansas and in 2022, we were the worst offense in the league. But in those other 9 years, the Cats got a shot at the worst offensive SEC team:

THE RESULTS

2013: Florida (18.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 24 (LOSS)

2014: Vanderbilt (17.2 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 7 (WIN)

2015: Missouri (13.6 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 13 (WIN)

2016: South Carolina (20.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 10 (WIN)

2017: Tennessee (19.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 26 (WIN)

2019: Vanderbilt (16.5 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 14 (WIN)

2020: Vanderbilt (14.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 35 (WIN)

2021: Vanderbilt (15.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 17 (WIN)

2023: Mississippi State (21.8 ppg)
Against Kentucky: 3 (WIN)

THE TAKEAWAYS

Kentucky has largely handled its business against teams like South Carolina. Teams that have been defensive-minded tend to fare worse against the Cats while those with a dynamic offense perform better. UK is 8-1 overall against the league’s worst offense and has held those teams UNDER their season average points on five of those nine occasions. Only once has UK performed more than a touchdown worse than the season average, in 2020 against Vanderbilt. And the Cats still won that game.

I think tomorrow’s game will largely be the kind of game that Mark Stoops wants. The spread-it-out and try-to-outscore-teams type of games do not interest him. This game where every yard matters and getting to 20 first might be enough interests him.

I like Kentucky’s chances tomorrow to win comfortably. I think you have a matchup that works for the Cats, early in the season when they play better traditionally, in a Mark Stoops type of game, with a team already looking shaky. And in a season where I think logic when figuring out this team will be important, all the logic says Kentucky could roll.