KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Alabama, SEC Tournament Quarterfinals

Kentucky needed a game-winner to hold off Oklahoma in its first game of the SEC Tournament last night. Will the No. 6 seed Cats be able to upset No. 3 seed Alabama in the quarterfinals, likely without Lamont Butler, who reinjured his left shoulder last night? They do say it’s hard to beat a team three times.

Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in on the Cats vs. the Crimson Tide, Round Three.

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Tyler Thompson

To repurpose a line from Mark Pope, it feels unfair that Kentucky has to play Alabama tonight after last night’s dramatic win over Oklahoma. Obviously, advancing is the goal, but I would love to be able to linger in the joy of Otega Oweh‘s game-winner a little longer before worrying about the Crimson Tide. It’s a memory so good and so needed that I think it actually outshines what happens tonight.

Kentucky hasn’t been beaten by a team three times in one season since Florida did it in 2014. Without Lamont Butler, it’s going to be very hard to continue that streak. Butler played a big part in Kentucky’s five-point loss to the Crimson Tide in Rupp, scoring 17 points and dishing eight assists. He didn’t play in the rematch in Tuscaloosa and the Cats struggled as a result. Mark Sears scored 30 points in that one, while Otega Oweh had his worst performance of the season, going 1-9 from the floor for just two points.

It’s hard to make this call without a final verdict on Butler. I’m going to assume he’s out. If that’s the case, the Cats will need a Herculean effort — from the players to the coaches, to the fans — to pull off the upset. Don’t forget that Alabama’s still fighting for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I’m going with the head over the heart in this one, but even if Kentucky loses, I can still look back on Thursday night and smile.

Score: Alabama 91, Kentucky 86

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky players will have, what — maybe 20 hours in between last night’s game and tonight’s quarterfinal matchup with Alabama? And will likely be without Lamont Butler beside them? That’s a tough situation no matter the opponent. For it to be a team that’s already beaten Kentucky twice this season doesn’t feel fair. But thus is life in this year’s edition of the SEC Tournament…

There’s an old saying used in all levels of basketball: it’s hard to beat the same time three times in the same season. But sometimes, the team that won twice already is simply better. Kentucky will have more than a puncher’s chance to win this; they performed well (for most of the game, at least) during the matchup in Tuscaloosa last month, which was also sans-Butler. But Alabama is coming into this game fresher and healthier. It will take a special effort from the ‘Cats to win this one. I’m not ruling it out, but I’m also not going to plan for it.

Score: Alabama 88, Kentucky 82

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Jack Pilgrim

I am KSR’s resident homer who comfortably picked Kentucky to win the SEC Tournament going into the trip to Nashville. That was before Lamont Butler re-aggravated his shoulder injury, likely leaving the Wildcats shorthanded for the umpteenth time this season with yet another by-committee point guard situation. The last matchup in Tuscaloosa feels like an unfortunate preview of what’s to come in Nashville, Kentucky throwing some early punches to make things interesting before running out of gas down the stretch as Alabama comes in waves.

At full strength — well, this version of full strength without Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa, anyway — I was picking the Cats to win tonight and the rest of the way in the Music City. Now, you’re left with no choice but to adjust expectations and pray for some magic as Butler hopefully gets healthy-ish in the NCAA Tournament.

Andrew Carr and Koby Brea lead the way for Kentucky, but it’s not enough as Alabama pulls it out late.

Score: Alabama 85, Kentucky 80

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Nick Roush

Two days ago, I was ready to pick a Kentucky upset over Alabama. After all, it’s hard to beat the same team three times. It’s not as hard if that team doesn’t have its top two guards. 

In order to beat Alabama, you need a lot of offensive firepower. Kentucky isn’t losing a ton of that without Lamont Butler, but he finishes at the rim and in the paint better than any of the guys tasked to replace him tonight. 

Most importantly, Kentucky just needs bodies. Mark Sears hunts fouls like James Harden. That guy is getting to the free throw line. I fear Kentucky’s backcourt, specifically Otega Oweh, will not be able to avoid foul trouble, putting the Cats even further behind the 8-ball. Kentucky will get up and down and have some moments, but asking for another win in Nashville is just too much. 

Score: Alabama 95, Kentucky 85

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Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky is shorthanded. That’s nothing new. However, this time Lamont Butler is gonna be unavailable and that isn’t ideal for stopping Mark Sears.

Alabama has guards who are great at getting downhill and scoring at the rim. It’ll be even easier for them to hit their stride without Butler. I’m expecting Otega Oweh to have a better game than the last performance against Alabama, but I’m still not sure that will be enough.

Alabama has so much firepower and seems to be playing some of their best basketball right now. They’re also getting healthy now with Derrion Reid potentially returning on Friday. Kentucky has proven me wrong before, but looking at this matchup on paper, it’s hard not to give the Tide the edge.

Score: Alabama 92, Kentucky 85

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Adam Luckett

Alabama will attempt to become the first team since Florida in 2014 to beat Kentucky three times. A raucous Big Blue Nation crowd will be in the building at Bridgestone Arena to prevent this from happening. This was a tough matchup for the Cats even before the Lamont Butler news.

Nate Oats has seen his team score a combined 198 points in the first two meetings against Kentucky. Alabama has had better shot creation in the two matchups, and that has led to the Tide winning the three-point battle in each game. Kentucky has to find a way to win that battle tonight to pull off the upset.

No. 6 seed Florida knocked off No. 3 seed Alabama in this game in the SEC Tournament last year. The Gators needed to scored 90-plus points to get the win. Can Kentucky get there? I just don’t know. Shot creation will likely be a problem.

The short-handed Cats will be up for the fight but Alabama will have the answers. This one comes down to the final segment with the Tide finding a way to get it done.

Score: Alabama 93, Kentucky 87

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Drew Franklin

I convinced myself that Kentucky would win at least two games in Mark Pope’s first SEC Tournament, including Friday’s game against Alabama. However, that belief in the Wildcats came before the 9:35 mark in the first half of Thursday’s game, when Lamont Butler exited Kentucky’s game against Oklahoma early and never returned. Without Butler, I’m afraid Alabama’s guards, namely Mark Sears, will get too much penetration against Kentucky’s defense. The high-scoring Crimson Tide lead the nation in scoring at 91.2 points per game, and they’re likely to hit that mark in their first game of the SEC Tournament on Friday night. Kentucky will hang around for most of the game but Butler’s absence will be too much to overcome.

Score: Alabama 92, Kentucky 82

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Kentucky vs. Alabama: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Television: SEC Network (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Molly McGrath)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.