KenPom, BartTorvik predictions for Kentucky's next three games

With their first SEC win under the belt and baby steps of progress being made, the Kentucky Wildcats are about to enter a daunting three-game stretch. On Saturday, the Cats travel to Alabama for a 1 p.m. ET showdown with the No. 7 Crimson Tide. The following Tuesday, they’ll get a reprieve vs. a 7-7 South Carolina team at Rupp before going to Knoxville on Saturday to face the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers. We’ll have plenty to say about each opponent and matchup in the coming days, but what are the computer models predicting?

First, a look at where the Cats stand. Kentucky started the season No. 1 in the KenPom ratings but has since fallen to No. 16. Right now, the Cats are No. 35 in BartTorvik, another ratings system, and No. 36 in the NET Rankings, the NCAA’s ranking system/sorting tool.

• Record: 10-4 (1-1 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: RV/T25
• NET: 36
• KenPom: 16
• BartTorvik: 35

Now, let’s see what KenPom and BartTorvik are saying about the next three games.

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Alabama Crimson Tide

Sat., Jan. 7, 1:00 p.m. ET, Coleman Coliseum (Tuscaloosa, AL), ESPN

• Record: 12-2 (2-0 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: 7/7
• NET: 8
• KenPom: 8
• BartTorvik: 8

Alabama’s only losses this season are to teams currently in the top ten of the AP Poll: UConn and Gonzaga. The Crimson Tide lost to the then-No. 20 Huskies 82-67 in the Phil Knight Invitational on Nov. 25 and the then-No. 18 Bulldogs 100-90 in the CM Newton Classic in Birmingham on Dec. 17.

The Crimson Tide rank second in the SEC in scoring, at 83.3 points per game. Like most Nate Oats squads, this one loves to shoot threes. Alabama ranks in the top ten nationally in both three-pointers made (10.0) and three-pointers attempted (28.7) per game. However, unlike most Nate Oats squads, this one’s pretty good on the other side of the ball, ranking No. 12 in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Freshman Brandon Miller is their star, leading the SEC in scoring with 19.1 points per game. Containing him will be a priority for Kentucky, specifically, Jacob Toppin.

Kentucky made progress vs. LSU, but beating a top-ten Alabama team on the road will require another level of effort and consistency. Plus, the final five minutes Tuesday night don’t have me feeling great about this team’s ability to finish games if this one’s close. That said, a win would be absolutely huge for the resume and morale.

KenPom: Alabama 78, Kentucky 72 (30% chance of winning)

Torvik: Alabama 79, Kentucky 70 (21% chance of winning)

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South Carolina Gamecocks

Tues., Jan. 10, 7:00 p.m. ET, Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN/ESPN2

• Record: 7-7 (0-1 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: NR/NR
• NET: 255
• KenPom: 200
• BartTorvik: 263

A Tuesday night game vs. South Carolina could be exactly what the doctor ordered following Saturday’s game in Tuscaloosa. The Gamecocks are 7-7 in Lamont Paris’ first year as head coach. On Tuesday, they lost their SEC opener, falling to Vanderbilt 84-79 in overtime in Nashville. South Carolina’s most impressive win of the season is over Clemson back on Nov. 11. Since then, the only team in the KenPom Top 150 the Gamecocks have beaten is Western Kentucky, 65-58.

Five-star freshman GG Jackson leads the Gamecocks in scoring with 16.9 points per game on 41.9% shooting. He’s making 33.8% of his three-pointers, an average of 1.8 per game on 5.3 attempts. He’ll be looking to have his Rupp Arena moment but it shouldn’t be enough for the Gamecocks to pull off the upset.

KenPom: Kentucky 74, South Carolina 56 (94% chance of winning)

Torvik: Kentucky 73, South Carolina 55 (96% chance of winning)

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Tennessee Volunteers

Sat., Jan. 14, 12 p.m. ET, Thompson-Boling Arena (Knoxville, TN), ESPN

• Record: 12-2 (2-0 SEC)
• AP/Coaches Poll: 8/9
• NET: 2
• KenPom: 2
• BartTorvik: 2

Tennessee is ranked No. 8 and No. 9 in the polls and the computer models love the Vols even more. The NET, KenPom, and BartTorvik all have Tennessee at No. 2. The Vols rank first in defensive efficiency in both KenPom and BartTorvik and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, pulling down an average of 12.6 per game. They’re limiting teams to an average of 53.2 points per game, which ranks third in the country while scoring an average of 74.7.

Tennessee’s loss to Colorado on Nov. 13 in Nashville had some questioning the Vols, but since, they’ve looked legit, beating No. 3 Kansas by 14 in the Battle 4 Atlantis and No. 13 Maryland in the Basketball HOF Invitational. Their only other loss is to No. 9 Arizona in Tucson on Dec. 17. Two days ago, they wiped the floor with a decent Mississippi State squad, 87-53.

So, yeah, tough game in a place Kentucky typically does not play well.

KenPom: Tennessee 70, Kentucky 60 (19% of winning)

Torvik: Tennessee 69, Kentucky 57 (9% chance of winning)