Kentucky, Arkansas still on the bubble in latest Bracketology

With one month left in the regular season, bracketologists are just getting started, bro. A fresh new batch of NCAA Tournament projections hit the internet this morning and Kentucky is still on the bubble, along with tonight’s foe, Arkansas.

After winning two “can’t-lose” games vs. Ole Miss and Florida last week, the Cats have inched up to the “Last Four Byes” in most projections. Kentucky’s average seed on Bracket Matrix is 10.23, with the Cats appearing in 92 of the 97 brackets on the interwebs. Kentucky is a 9-seed on TeamRankings and has a 76.3% chance of making the tournament, a 15.9% increase from last week. Bart Torvik sets Kentucky’s seed as 8.6, giving the Cats a 72.9% chance of making the cut.

Being on the bubble with one month until the postseason is not ideal; however, Kentucky has five Quad 1 games remaining, starting with tonight’s matchup vs. Arkansas (that figure was six yesterday, but Auburn slipped to No. 31 in this morning’s NET update, which moves that game to Quad 2. We need the Tigers to win more games).

Here’s a roundup of the latest projections, starting with your favorite, Joe Lunardi.

ESPN

In this morning’s Bracketology update, Lunardi still has Kentucky and Arkansas among the “Last Four Byes.” The Cats are a 10-seed in the South Region, facing 7-seed San Diego State in Sacramento. If you’ve been listening to the radio show, you know this is the “Zephyr scenario.” A potential rematch with UCLA waits in the second round.

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CBS Sports

Kentucky is Palm’s final 10-seed, Arkansas one of six 11-seeds. The Razorbacks are among Palm’s Last Four In, playing Clemson in the First Four in Dayton.

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Bracketville

Kentucky is also a 10-seed in Bracketville’s latest update, playing 7-seed Creighton in the first round in Des Moines. Arkansas is another of the “Last Four Byes.”

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The Athletic

In his weekly “Bubble Watch” column, The Athletic’s Eamonn Brennan categorizes each potential tournament team as “Lock,” “Should be in,” or “Work to do.” Kentucky and Arkansas are still listed under “Work to do” in the SEC, along with Texas A&M, Florida, and Mississippi State.

Kentucky (16-7, 7-3; NET: 31, SOS: 40): Kentucky beat Florida 72-67 in Rupp Arena Saturday night, in what felt like a placeholder game to keep people vaguely aware of college basketball until Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga could take the stage at 10:30 p.m. ET. Oscar Tshiebwe had one of his worst games of the season, a four-point, three-turnover, 2-of-14 shooting performance that highlighted part of the reason why Kentucky hasn’t been as good as they were last year: because Big Oscar hasn’t, either. He hasn’t been bad, far from it, and by any other offensive standards he’s been excellent. But basically all of his rate numbers are down year over year. (Free-throw rate is the only area where he’s improved; he’s drawing more fouls, barely.) Meanwhile, his defensive stats are also down, which dovetails with the general impression that he’s looked pretty lost on that end at times, too. Recriminations for why Kentucky finds itself on the bubble this year have been extensive and varied, and Tshiebwe isn’t in the top five on that list. But he hasn’t been as good as he was a year ago, either.

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USA Today

Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg, and Erick Smith released their first Bracketology of the season this morning. It’s the rosiest projection for Kentucky so far. The Cats are a 7-seed facing 10-seed Noth Carolina in the first round of the East Region. Talk about a storyline. Arkansas is also a 7-seed.

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The Sporting News

Bill Bender also hints at a Kentucky vs. North Carolina first-round matchup but has both the Tar Heels and the Wildcats as 8-seeds.

“If the committee could slide the Wildcats down a line and match them up with the Tar Heels in the first round, then it might.”

Arkansas is a 9-seed in Bender’s projections. He didn’t waste time slotting his projected field into an actual bracket.