KSR Staff Predictions: No. 12 Kentucky vs. Arkansas

It’s finally here — well, almost. John Calipari returns to Rupp Arena as Arkansas’ head coach Saturday night. The debate over how Kentucky fans should greet Cal has raged all week. What will happen in the actual game?

The No. 12 Cats are coming off Tuesday night’s massive upset of No. 8 Tennessee, while the Razorbacks have been on a midweek bye after a 1-6 start to SEC play. Calipari’s first Arkansas team has fallen well short of expectations and will be without star point guard Boogie Fland for the rest of the season due to thumb surgery. Will they rally around Calipari and get a potentially season-changing win over Kentucky in Rupp or will Mark Pope’s Cats take care of business?

The KSR crew is ready to weigh in, after a message from Friends of Coal.

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Tyler Thompson

The scenarios of how this game could unfold have been running through my head for months. Arkansas has been BAD this season, but how Calipari would it be to turn things around with a very unexpected win at Rupp Arena? As much as that thought has haunted me (especially before Kentucky’s win over Tennessee), I don’t think it will be the case.

The win over Tennessee served a few purposes. First, it was a huge jolt of momentum after back-to-back losses. It was also a reminder that Mark Pope is one heck of a basketball coach. Without Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr (who played 89 seconds), Pope put together a game plan to pull off one of the best wins of the season. Ahead of one of the most regular-season anticipated games in program history, I’m sure Pope has been logging extra hours to make sure his group will be as ready — on paper — as possible.

Emotions could play a factor, especially early on. It’s a good thing that, save Travis Perry and maybe Trent Noah, no one on Kentucky’s roster will be affected by Calipari’s homecoming. On the other side, DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero, and Zvonimir Ivisic are three of Arkansas’ core players. Saturday will be weird for them, and to a lesser extent, the three former Kentucky signees who followed Cal to Arkansas. All of that emotion will lead to some Razorback runs (Thiero will throw down at least one massive dunk), but ultimately, I think Pope’s Cats will feed off the energy in Rupp to deliver a win, and hopefully, some closure.

SCORE: Kentucky 83, Arkansas 74

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Drew Franklin

It’s almost here. Saturday night, Rupp Arena will host its biggest game since Rick Pitino was in a similar spot in 2001, returning to Rupp as a former coach turned opponent. Now it’s John Calipari’s turn to make the awkward walk with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the most-anticipated game of Mark Pope’s first season.

The lead-up to the game has mostly been about the reception Calipari will receive in his awkward return as the bad guy. Boo? Cheer? The conversation has been exhausting, so let’s focus on the end of the game, which will hopefully be a Kentucky win. The program needs it to keep winning the split.

The massive point spread suggests Kentucky will run Arkansas out of Lexington with a beatdown. However, John Calipari tends to prove everyone wrong when he’s counted out. With his back against the wall, Calipari will rally his struggling team to keep it tight in Lexington, only to fall short on the final scoreboard. Big Z will make a big impact because he is the most likely not to be affected by the crowd. The fun-loving Croatian, who Kentucky fans freed a year ago, may even embrace his return.

Led by Z, Arkansas will cover the spread but lose the game. The home crowd, Kentucky’s style of play, and in-game coaching will ultimately be the deciding factor. The Cats win, and everyone moves on to the rest of the season without a thought about the former coach and his new operation in Fayetteville.

SCORE: Kentucky 81, Arkansas 73

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Nick Roush

How many times did you hear John Calipari say, “We’re everybody’s Super Bowl” ahead of a sold-out SEC road trip? How many of those times did those John Calipari teams walk into that hornet’s nest and leave the crowd silenced?

“You’re gonna hate me, ’cause I come to your town and we beat your team.”

The roles have been reversed. Kentucky fans have turned this into our own personal Super Bowl. Even though it will be unlike any other game we’ve seen at Rupp Arena, this is familiar territory for Calipari. In fact, it’s when he’s at his best. He’s back into a corner and nobody believes his team can win. Well, not everybody.

Unlike Tennessee, Arkansas will not take every three the Cats give them. They will muddy up the game by relentlessly attacking the rim. Adou Thiero will use his mismatch to play the best game of his career, as DJ Wagner nets four three-pointers, more than he’s made in a game all season. It will coincide with a cold shooting night for the shorthanded Cats and Arkansas will get the win it desperately needs to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

Score: Arkansas 72, Kentucky 68

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Zack Geoghegan

This game will not be fun to watch. Not from a basketball perspective, but from a “my nerves can’t handle this” type of view. Kentucky is the better team by far. Arkansas is without its best ball handler in Boogie Fland. Adou Thiero will pose some problems, but the Razorbacks just don’t have the players to make this an upset.

But it will be a game, if only due to the pageantry of it all. Calipari will find a way to keep this one close — he almost has to. It would not shock me to see Arkansas lead at halftime. This is a group that does not want to get into a shootout though. The Razorbacks rarely shoot threes and make them at an inefficient clip. Defense (35th in the country) is what will keep Calipari’s team alive. They can block shots and keep games low-scoring. A poor shooting start for Kentucky would make this interesting.

But again, Kentucky is simply the better and deeper team. I am not worried about Pope pulling this one out if it’s close down the stretch. Whether or not Butler/Carr play will be a factor, but not one that changes how I predict the outcome. Kentucky runs away with this one late.

Score: Kentucky 80, Arkansas 71

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Jack Pilgrim

I woke up Friday morning feeling like a nervous wreck. It’s been easy to take one game at a time and truly enjoy this ride under Mark Pope, soaking in the highs and lows — with plenty more of the former than the latter. For whatever reason, though, reality hit today that the game we’ve all had circled on our calendars from day one is finally here. The guy we saw take this program to four Final Fours in five years and put 50 players in the NBA is coming back wearing the wrong color on the opposite bench. It’s weird and unbelievable, something out of the Twilight Zone. But it’s the new reality and it’s here.

Unfortunately for Coach Cal, a guy I love and thank for all of the good times, his Razorbacks stink out loud. They’ve got plenty of familiar faces and names I also love — they can never make me hate you, Big Z — but for whatever reason, this group just isn’t coming together at all, now sitting at 1-6 in the SEC and 12-8 on the year.

Similar to the Louisville matchup, though, you have no choice but to factor in the emotion and nerves, probably more than talent or season results. It’s a clean slate for both sides in a game that is bigger than a win or loss out of 31 tries in the regular season. This one matters, and it’s why I’m not loving the 11.5-point spread. I think the Cats will win, but it’ll be too tight for our liking until Pope’s group comes up big late to close out an ugly, low-scoring victory.

Remember: Jaxson Robinson made it clear this is the game he wanted more than any other when he got to Lexington, even with the old coaching staff that did him wrong out of the picture. It’ll be the name and logo that gets him fired up en route to another 20-point effort to lead the Cats.

Score: Kentucky 75, Arkansas 67

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Adam Luckett

The game everyone circled on the schedule in the offseason has finally arrived. It’s Cats vs. Hogs in Rupp Arena for John Calipari’s homecoming. However, both teams enter this matchup short-handed.

Arkansas does not have Boogie Fland and Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo is not 100 percent. Kentucky could be without Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr again. Meanwhile, Jaxson Robinson and Otega Oweh were both banged-up in the Tennessee win. That creates an intriguing matchup.

Kentucky has not covered as a favorite against an unranked foe and that continues on Saturday night, but Arkansas simply does not have the offensive firepower without Fland to keep up with Kentucky’s pace and space offense that will put Calipari’s man defense in a ton of tough situations. Fouls will be something to watch on both sides since roster depth is being stretched thin on both sidelines.

The Hogs keep it close, but the three-point battle goes Kentucky’s way and that will ultimately be the difference in the game. Mark Pope’s team can still score short-handed.

Score: Kentucky 82, Arkansas 72

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Kentucky vs. Arkansas: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Alyssa Lang)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 84
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.