Kentucky baseball has favorable odds to make the College World Series

ZGeogheganKSR

kentucky-baseball-favorable-odds-make-college-world-series — Photo by Morgan Simmons | UK Athletics

For the first time since 2017, Kentucky baseball is hosting a regional in Lexington. Even better, the ‘Bat Cats, which picked up the No. 12 national seed, have a favorable path to making its first-ever College World Series.

According to @statsowar on Twitter, Nick Mingione’s squad has a 30.0 percent chance of making the CWS — the sixth-best odds from the 64-team field. That percentage is based on 10,000 simulations of the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The same account also gives Kentucky a 58.1 percent chance to make it out of the Lexington Regional, which consists of West Virginia (2), Indiana (3), and Ball State (4).

Wake Forest (44.7%), Vanderbilt (35.6%), Florida (35.1%), LSU (32.3%), and Virginia (30.4%) are the only teams with a higher percent chance than Kentucky of making the College World Series. A full bracket for the entire tournament field can be found here.

Probability of Making the CWS, 10000 Sims

Wake Forest 44.7%
Vanderbilt 35.6%
Florida 35.1%
LSU 32.3%
Virginia 30.4%
Kentucky 30.0%
South Carolina 29.5%
Tennessee 28.9%
Alabama 26.9%
Miami 26.8%
Stanford 25.0%
Clemson 24.1%
Coastal 22.9%
Duke 22.5%
Arkansas 22.2%
Auburn 19.0%
— parker, arguably educated (@statsowar) May 29, 2023

Additionally, DraftKings has Kentucky at +3000 odds to win the College World Series. UK is the only Southeastern Conference program to never make the CWS.

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10 SEC schools made the 2023 NCAA Tournament this year, with a record-breaking eight of them earning the right to host one of the 16 Regional sites. Florida (No. 2), Arkansas (No. 3), LSU (No. 5), Vanderbilt (No. 6), South Carolina (No. 15), Auburn (No. 13), and Alabama (No. 16) are also hosting Regionals. Vanderbilt is participating in its 17th consecutive NCAA Tournament (the longest active streak) while Florida extends its streak to 15 straight.

Kentucky will take on Ball State in its opening matchup of the double-elimination format, which is scheduled for Friday, June 2 at Kentucky Proud Park. First pitch is set for noon EST on the SEC Network.