Resume Building: Ranking Kentucky's Remaining Games Into Tiers

Believe it or not, we’re almost halfway through the 2023-24 college basketball season. Kentucky has 19 regular season games remaining — the entire SEC slate and the game vs. Gonzaga at Rupp Arena on Feb. 10. On this New Year’s Day, let’s take an early look at the Cats’ NCAA Tournament resume and what games mean the most as we head towards March.

This is the NCAA’s sixth year using the NET as the Selection Committee’s primary metric for sorting teams in the tournament. The first NET Rankings of the season dropped on Dec. 3, with Kentucky debuting at No. 45. Since then, the Cats have steadily climbed the rankings and now sit at No. 23. It’s best not to take the NET Rankings too seriously until mid-late January when the sample size includes some conference games, but at the very least, we can divide the rest of the schedule into tiers (games listed chronologically).

Tier 1: Resume “Makers”

• Jan. 13: at Texas A&M (NET 24)
• Feb. 3: vs. Tennessee (NET 6)
• Feb. 10: vs. Gonzaga (NET 56)
• Feb. 17: at Auburn (NET 13)
• Feb. 24: vs. Alabama (NET 5)
• March 9: at Tennessee (NET 6)

Currently, Kentucky has 10 Quad 1 games on its Team Sheet, including the loss to Kansas and the win over North Carolina. The reason I’m not simply listing the eight remaining Quad 1 games in Tier 1 is because there are still some oddities in the NET. For instance, Gonzaga is No. 56, which puts the game in Rupp in Quad 2; however, the Bulldogs are No. 28 in KenPom and No. 24 in the AP Poll. Gonzaga already has four losses (Purdue, Washington, UConn, San Diego State) but will probably pick up steam as it starts a very weak WCC schedule. So, in my tiers, a win over the Bulldogs still belongs near the top.

Similarly, the NET is super high on Alabama right now, ranking the Crimson Tide fifth in the country, yet Nate Oats’ squad is still at the bottom of the “Others Receiving Votes” group in the AP Poll. If this year’s game were in Tuscaloosa, it would mean much more in terms of resume, but I’ll keep it near the bottom of Tier 1 regardless.

Remember the rule of thumb with the NET: teams are rewarded the most for road wins against good teams and punished the most for home losses against bad ones. Therefore, wins at Tennessee, Auburn, and Texas A&M would look great on Kentucky’s resume, the game vs. the Vols especially. Speaking of home losses, if you’re curious, Kentucky’s loss to UNC Wilmington is currently in Quad 3. We need the Seahawks to be decent this rest of the season to keep that one out of Quad 4.

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Tier 2: Quality Wins

• Jan. 6: at Florida (NET 47)
• Jan. 23: at South Carolina (NET 44)
• Jan. 27: at Arkansas (NET 89)
• Feb. 27: at Mississippi State (NET 34)
• Feb. 13: vs. Ole Miss (NET 59)

Things I did not predict coming into this season: South Carolina only having one loss, Ole Miss being undefeated, and Arkansas being average. Lamont Paris’ squad, which went 11-21 last season and only won four SEC games, is rolling right now, with a NET ranking of 44. That puts the game in Columbia in Quad 1 for now, but I have a feeling once the Gamecocks start SEC play, reality will set in. The same goes for Chris Beard and Ole Miss, who are ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll and face their first real test on Saturday at Tennessee.

Kentucky’s trip to Fayetteville at the end of this month doesn’t look quite as glamorous as it did before the season began, but a win over the Razorbacks in Bud Walton still counts for something. After back-to-back bad losses to Georgia Tech and Southern, Mississippi State is on a five-game winning streak. The Bulldogs’ game vs. South Carolina on Jan. 6 will be a good measuring stick for both programs. On the same day, Kentucky has a chance to notch a quality win at Florida in what is currently a Quad 1 game.

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Tier 3: Hold Serve at Home

• Jan. 9: vs. Missouri (NET 102)
• Jan. 17: vs. Mississippi State (NET 34)
• Jan. 31: vs. Florida (NET 47)
• March 2: vs. Arkansas (NET 89)

None of these would be wins to write home about but lose and you give the Selection Committee opportunity for pause. I contemplated putting the Missouri game in the lowest tier, but I think the Tigers are better than their 8-5 record shows. They played Kansas pretty close at The Phog and Dennis Gates got the best of John Calipari and Kentucky last season in Columbia. That said, Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge, who combined for 45 vs. Kentucky last year, are gone and the Tigers have no answer for Kentucky’s size around the rim.

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Tier 4: Avoid SEC Road Clunkers

• Feb. 6: at Vanderbilt (NET 272)
• Feb. 21: at LSU (NET 138)

No matter the talent, Calipari’s teams typically drop one SEC game on the road, usually a mid-week, late tip against a very “meh” team. This year’s candidates for the annual SEC road clunker are Vanderbilt (Tuesday, Feb. 6) and LSU (Wednesday, Feb. 21). Neither team is good — LSU is No. 102 in KenPom, Vanderbilt No. 210 — but strange things can happen on the road with a young team. There are familiar faces on both opposing sidelines this year too, with Daimion Collins transferring to LSU and Brad Calipari now on Jerry Stackhouse’s staff.

Speaking of Stackhouse, don’t forget that he’s won the last two against Kentucky. Vandy’s struggling this season, but almost upset Memphis on the road last week. Kentucky hasn’t lost a game at Memorial Gym since 2016, a streak that needs to continue if the Cats want to avoid what would currently be considered a Quad 4 loss.

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Tier 5: You Better Not Lose These

• Jan. 20: vs. Georgia (NET 101)
• March 6: vs. Vanderbilt (NET 272)

Remember what I said about the NET punishing you for losing to bad teams at home? Vanderbilt and Georgia qualify as bad teams. The Bulldogs’ only KenPom Top 100 win is over Wake Forest in the second game of the season. Since then, they’ve stacked a bunch of wins over mostly terrible teams, the most impressive being at Florida State, which just lost to Lipscomb. A loss to Georgia or Vanderbilt in Rupp would be a resume buster, so let’s avoid it.

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