By the Numbers: Kentucky Basketball's Offensive Woes

You don’t need me to tell you Kentucky’s offense stinks right now. On Saturday vs. UCLA, the Cats mustered only 53 points on 32.8% shooting, both season lows. Ten games into the regular season, it seems Kentucky is moving backward on offense, an ominous sign as conference play approaches.

Amazingly, the Cats remain in the Top 20 of the AP Poll, coming in at No. 19 in today’s update, likely a testament to the program’s name brand and parity in the sport thus far this season. But, where do the Cats stand when you look at the actual numbers? I dipped my toe into the stats and analytics to see just how offensive the offense is.

KenPom: 28th in Offensive Efficiency

Kentucky is still in the top ten of the KenPom overall rankings; however, until late January, those numbers are still influenced by preseason data, so, stuff that happened last season. Kentucky began the 2022-23 season No. 1 in KenPom and has steadily fallen since then. Kentucky’s offensive efficiency dropped from No. 19 to No. 28 based on the UCLA game alone. Right now, KenPom predicts Kentucky will finish the regular season 22-9, 13-5 in SEC play.

BartTorvik: 52nd in Offensive Efficiency

BartTorvik is another analytics website. It also factors in preseason data and phases it out after 15-16 games. Currently, Kentucky is No. 18 in BartTorvik‘s overall rankings, thanks mostly to defense. The Cats rank 17th in adjusted efficiency in defense and 52nd in adjusted efficiency on offense. Right now, BartTorvik predicts Kentucky will finish the regular season 21-10, 11-7 in SEC play. The Cats’ projected NCAA Tournament seed is 5.6, so leaning towards a six-seed.

NET: No. 32

Kentucky is No. 32 in the latest NET rankings, with a 0-2 record in its Quad 1 games (losses to Gonzaga and UCLA). For now, the loss to Michigan State in the Champions Classic is in Quad 2. Based on the current NET rankings, Kentucky has nine more Quad 1 games remaining, starting with the game at Missouri on Dec. 28.

Quad 1 Games (As of Dec. 19)

NET Rank	Date	Opponent	Result
4	01/14/2023	at Tennessee
4	02/18/2023	Tennessee
5	12/17/2022	UCLA (CBS Sports Classic, NYC)	L 53-63
6	01/28/2023	Kansas
7	01/07/2023	at Alabama
13	11/20/2022	at Gonzaga	L 72-88
15	02/15/2023	at Mississippi St.
17	03/04/2023	at Arkansas
17	02/07/2023	Arkansas
51	02/22/2023	at Florida
64	12/28/2022	at Missouri

Points Per Possession in losses: < 1.0

This seems obvious, but the common denominator in Kentucky’s three losses is lousy offense. The Cats haven’t had issues beating up on bad teams, but when it comes to the good or even decent teams, they struggle. As Matt Norlander noted, Kentucky has only scored better than 1.0 points per possession in one of its four games vs. high-major teams, the win vs. Michigan. On Saturday vs. UCLA, Kentucky’s points per possession was 0.79. Not good.

Free-Throw Shooting: 66.3% (306th nationally)

When you look at Kentucky’s offensive stats, one stands out below the rest: free-throw shooting. Kentucky is 306th in the country from the charity stripe, making a dismal 66.3% of its attempts. That weakness was on full display vs. UCLA, in which Kentucky went 5-13 from the free-throw line. Last year, Kentucky made 72.6% of its free throws.

Three-Point Attempts per game: 21.0 (203rd nationally)

Kentucky’s three-point percentage isn’t terrible, 38.1% (38th nationally), but by digging a little further, you see the real story. Right now, Kentucky is attempting 21.0 threes per game, which is below John Calipari’s goal of 25 and ranks 203rd nationally. The Cats are making an average of 8.0, which ranks 106th. The number of threes attempted compared to the number of field goals attempted is 33.0, which ranks 293rd in college basketball. Just for comparison, Alabama’s three-point rate is 46.5.

In Kentucky’s three losses, the Cats are shooting 19-71 from the outside, an abysmal 26.8%. Here are the individual splits of Kentucky’s shooters in those games:

Cason Wallace: 5-12 (33.3%)

• vs. Michigan State: 2-5 3PT (40%)
• vs. Gonzaga: 2-3 3PT (66.7%)
• vs. UCLA: 1-7 3PT (14.3%)

Antonio Reeves: 27.8%

• vs. Michigan State: 1-3 3PT (33.3%)
• vs. Gonzaga: 2-7 3PT (28.6)
• vs. UCLA: 2-8 3PT (25%)

CJ Fredrick: 12.5%

• vs. Michigan State: 1-6 3PT (16.7%)
• vs. Gonzaga: 1-6 3PT (16.7%)
• vs. UCLA: 0-0 (0%)

The only good news in this post is that on Wednesday, Kentucky faces Florida A&M, one of the worst teams in college basketball. The Rattlers are 2-7 this season, most recently losing to Louisville 61-55. They rank 357 out of the 363 teams in KenPom. Kentucky should have zero problems scoring against them; however, one win vs. a bad team does not signify progress and will do little to calm an uneasy fanbase. With big games right around the corner (at Missouri, at Alabama, a Tennessee), it’s going to be a bumpy ride.