SEC Tournament Predictions from the KSR Staff

It was a banner year for the SEC. The league dominated the non-conference slate, then put on a show week after week after week in what many are saying is the best collection of college basketball teams to ever represent one conference. Before as many as 13 teams are selected for the NCAA Tournament, 16 schools travel to Nashville to compete in the SEC Tournament.

Bridgestone Arena was once a home away from home for the Wildcats, who turned the event into the Kentucky Invitational. Kentucky won six SEC Tournament titles in nine seasons, but the Cats are 2-5 in the event since bringing home the crown in 2018.

How will this team perform in Mark Pope’s first SEC Tournament since his ’96 Cats fell to Mississippi State in the Championship Game? The KSR crew creates its forecast and predicts who will take home the hardware from Nashville on Selection Sunday.

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Nick Roush

There’s something special about Mark Pope’s first Kentucky basketball team. Big Blue Nation has tempered expectations throughout the season, and yet they continue to overachieve.

Ahead of the postseason, there seems to be a general consensus among Kentucky fans. A low bar has been set. Win one SEC Tournament game and end the lengthy Sweet 16 drought. That will make most fans happy. This group has enough gumption to do that and a little more.

Jalon Moore and Jeremiah Fears will rebound from an awful season finale against Texas and put up big numbers against Georgia. Kentucky won’t need a generational Otega Oweh performance to secure an opening-round win over the Sooners.

Alabama and Florida might be the most challenging matchups for Kentucky. Without Jaxson Robinson, it’s hard to win a shootout against two of the best shootout teams in college basketball. But consider this. Kentucky has not gone nuclear from the three-point line since they knocked down 16 against Mississippi State in January. They’re due for one of those nights when everything goes right. That will happen in a spectacular win over Bama that gets Kentucky to the SEC Tournament Semifinals. They will run out of gas on Saturday, a day later than everyone expected.

Kentucky Finish: Semifinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Florida

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Tyler Thompson

The SEC Tournament has long been one of my favorite times of the year. The Big Blue Nation descending upon Nashville is a rite of spring and especially fun for this Music City resident. That’s why it’s pained me to see everybody have to turn around and go right back home after just one Kentucky game. This year, with a coach who wants to win the event just as much as fans do, the Cats will break their bad Nashville streak and stick around until Saturday.

Oklahoma vs. Georgia will be an ugly basketball game on Wednesday. No matter the outcome, I am confident that Kentucky will take care of business on Thursday night. If it’s Georgia, there’s a revenge factor. If it’s Oklahoma, I think Kentucky has made enough progress since the game a few weeks ago that it won’t need Otega Oweh’s second-half heroics. Plus, have you seen how much Brandon Garrison hates the Sooners? After almost getting nailed with a beer can after the game, I’m a little scared to think about what those elbows might do.

That brings us to Friday night. How much do you believe the old adage, “It’s hard to beat a team three times”? It will be put to the test against No. 5 Alabama. The Cats hung with the Crimson Tide in the first matchup in Lexington. Without Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson, it was a very different story in Tuscaloosa a month later, but the shorthanded Cats showed some life at the end.

With a rowdy crowd behind them, I think they’ll rise to the challenge and upset Bama to notch their 12th Quad 1 win. Unfortunately, they’ll come up short of their 13th vs. Florida on Saturday, but two wins, one over a top-five team, will be enough to keep the good vibes flowing on the court and in the fanbase heading into the Big Dance.

Kentucky Finish: Semifinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Auburn

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Zack Geoghegan

I’m penciling in Kentucky to win its opening round matchup no matter who the opponent is. I’d rather the Wildcats take on Georgia than Oklahoma in that showdown, but regardless, it’ll be Mark Pope’s first-ever SEC Tournament win.

If it’s Georgia, revenge will be on the brain. That loss was over two months ago and came on the road. The Bulldogs closed the regular season strong, but UK’s new-look defense would shut them down. If it’s Oklahoma, Kentucky already has the blueprint with the win from a couple of weeks ago, which also happened on the road. No matter who ends up being on the other side of the floor, that will be a home game atmosphere for the ‘Cats.

Then comes Alabama, a team Kentucky has already lost twice to. While it’s tough to beat a team three times in the same season, sometimes it’s just a matter of one team being better than the other. I believe Alabama is a true Final Four contender; I’m not sure I’d say the same about UK right now. That being said, the matchup could easily be the most exciting of the tournament with the combined final score over 200 points. Pope has a better idea of what his roster can do compared to those other games, but Alabama is just slightly better right now. The Crimson Tide then go on to win the whole thing en route to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky Finish: Quarterfinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Alabama

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Drew Franklin

It’s a new era for Kentucky Basketball, one that cares about the SEC Tournament. With Mark Pope’s enthusiasm for the conference tournament and a newly energized Big Blue Nation heading to Nashville to watch it, Kentucky is due to break out of its postseason funk in the Music City, where the Cats have lost four straight SEC Tournament games since beating a No. 10 seed in the 2019 quarterfinals.

On Thursday, Kentucky will win its second-round game against the Georgia/Oklahoma winner, setting up a third shot at Alabama, the tournament’s No. 3 seed, on Friday. In that game, we will see the full resurgence of Kentucky Basketball in the SEC and in Nashville, as the Cats upset the Crimson Tide to avenge the two regular-season losses. Lamont Butler on Mark Sears and Kentucky winning the 3-point contest will be the difference-makers in the quarterfinal win.

On Saturday, though, the fresher legs of No. 2 seed Florida will take advantage of Kentucky’s third game in three days, the high emotions of beating Alabama, and moving from the night session to the afternoon on less than 24 hours rest. The Gators will win a tight one to end UK’s 2025 SEC Tournament run on Saturday, but the BBN will quickly set its sights on the NCAA Tournament with high expectations, pleased by the two wins in Nashville.

Kentucky Finish: Semifinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Auburn

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Jack Pilgrim

Some of the most prominent voices in basketball have said winning the SEC Tournament will be more challenging than winning the NCAA Tournament this season — as many as five games in five days featuring the best teams in the sport, the league essentially guaranteed to set the all-time record for most from a single conference in the field of 68. 14 teams are in the top 45 of the NET, six of those forced to start their Nashville journeys on Wednesday. It’s going to be an all-out war from the opening tip of the first game through Sunday afternoon inside Bridgestone Arena.

I have a different theory, though. Maybe I’m crazy. Odds are pretty good, actually.

Think about the heavy hitters of the conference and what’s on the line for each of them. Auburn put together one of the most dominant regular seasons in history racking up 16 Quad 1 wins. They’re pushing for a national championship, a letdown in the Tigers’ eyes if they fall short of San Antonio. The same can be said for Florida and Alabama as potential No. 1 seeds with Final Four expectations, Rick Barnes still looking to beat those allegations, as well. If not now, will Tennessee ever under his leadership? Winning in Nashville won’t make a difference there — if anything, fatigue is a factor, playing through Sunday potentially limiting those programs from the real prize.

For Kentucky, though, you could argue the Wildcats have the most to play for and the least to lose. They’ve likely locked in a No. 3 seed floor with No. 2 seed upside, a few additional Quad 1 wins away from that mark. Then you’ve got the desperation factor for Big Blue Nation, something Mark Pope addressed on day one at his introductory press conference. This fanbase is craving any type of postseason success, wanting nothing more than to watch the confetti fall from the sky as their beloved Cats hold up a trophy for the first time since 2018 — no, we’re not counting the 2023 GLOBL JAM gold medal in Toronto.

The stars are aligning for a special run in Nashville and I’m ready to call my shot.

Kentucky Finish: Finals
SEC Tournament Champion: Kentucky

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Jacob Polacheck

Mark Pope and Kentucky have won some big games in year one, but the SEC Tournament will be the biggest of them yet. It also happens to be in a year when the conference is perhaps better than it’s ever been.

These games matter, especially with how much Pope has hyped up the conference tournament since day one. Even after defeating Missouri, there are still questions about how much this team can do without Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa. Personally, I think they can make a run, but I’m not predicting it in a loaded SEC Tournament.

My prediction is that Kentucky gets past the winner of Oklahoma/Georgia, but falls short against Alabama. It’s hard to beat a team three times in one year, but if a team can do it, it’s this Alabama team. The Crimson Tide are hitting their stride at the right time.

Kentucky Finish: Quarterfinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Alabama

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Adam Luckett

Mark Pope directly addressed that the SEC Tournament will matter as long as he is the head coach at Kentucky during his introductory press conference at Rupp Arena. The Kentucky head coach doubled and tripled-down on those comments recently. I expect that we will see an inspired performance from Kentucky.

But the draw is a tough one.

Kentucky will have to be an at-large team on Thursday night. A case could be made that Georgia is playing like a top-15 team entering the tournament. A win sets up a third meeting with Alabama. The Tide have felt like a very tough matchup for Kentucky due to their ability to create easy twos and win the three-point volume battle against the Cats. I have a feeling we will see another Kentucky run in the SEC Tournament end on Friday.

Bama beats Kentucky, gets revenge on Florida in the semifinals, and beats the winner of Texas A&M/Tennessee as Auburn fails to reach Sunday. Nate Oats claims his third SEC Tournament championship in five seasons.

Kentucky Finish: Quarterfinals
SEC Tournament Champion: Alabama

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2025 SEC Tournament Championship Odds

(TOURNAMENT SEED) TEAM	CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
(1) Auburn	+140
(2)Florida	+250
(3) Alabama	+500
(4) Tennessee	+600
(6) Kentucky	+2500
(5) Texas A&M	+2500
(7) Missouri	+4000
(8) Ole Miss	+6000
(10) Mississippi State	+8000
(9) Arkansas	+15000
(13) Texas	+25000
(11) Georgia	+25000
(12) Vanderbilt	+25000
(14) Oklahoma	+25000
(16) South Carolina	+25000
(15) LSU	+25000

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