Turnover Troubles: How poor ball security is derailing Kentucky's offense

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NCAA Basketball: Kentucky at Mississippi — Feb 4, 2025; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels forward Malik Dia (0), guard Davon Barnes (7), Kentucky Wildcats forward Trent Noah (9) and forward Andrew Carr (7) battle for a loose ball during the first half at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Kentucky is .500 in SEC play with six games to go despite owning a combined a 5-2 record against teams projected to become a No. 7 seed or higher in the NCAA Tournament. Where most of the losses have occurred have been against teams flirting with the bubble. There has been another common denominator in those defeats outside of losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.

Ball security has been an issue for Mark Pope‘s team with and without Lamont Butler in the lineup in losses.

Opponents	Turnovers	Turnover Percentage
Georgia	14	18.7%
Vanderbilt	17	25.4%
Arkansas	14	19.2%
Texas	15	20.5%

Kentucky only had a healthy Lamont Butler for the Georgia game, but played without him against Arkansas and Texas. The home win over Texas A&M is the only conference victory Kentucky has where their turnover rate went over 18 percent (23.6%). Protecting the basketball has been an issue in losses.

Kentucky’s offense is No. 4 nationally in KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency rankings. The Wildcats rank No. 30 in adjusted tempo. This is a team that can score in bunches. Even with poor free throw and three-point shooting against Texas, the Cats still found a way to score 78 points in 73 possessions on a high turnover rate.

The offense is the strength of this team. That strength is negated when the Wildcats cannot protect the basketball.

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Kentucky has only scored less than 75 points twice in conference play — high turnover rates were a major reason why. UK had a bad shooting night against Georgia on top of a high turnover rate. Vanderbilt slowed the game down and a extremely high turnover rate negated a good shooting performance from the road team at Memorial Gym.

As the season winds down, keep an eye on Kentucky’s turnover rate. That is what is allowing winnable games to slip away. Kentucky’s best strength cannot be maximized when the team is giving up 20 percent of their possessions.

Kentucky’s home contest with Vanderbilt could again come down to if the Wildcats can protect the rock or not.