Projecting Kentucky spreads using preseason power ratings

Tailgating will take place in the Kroger Field parking lots in 14 weeks when Kentucky opens the 2023 college football season with Ball State. The offseason is almost over and we’re diving into all of the preseason content at KSR.

Early this week, ESPN’s SP+ rankings were updated to include the spring transfer portal additions. Kentucky checks in at No. 22 overall and No. 55 in returning production. The Wildcats have the team to make some noise if the offense can have a bounce back year after the bottom fell out last season. Using the latest SP+ rankings and adding two points for home field advantage, I’ve put together some spread projections for every UK game outside of the Week 2 meeting with FCS Eastern Kentucky.

• Ball State at Kentucky (-31)
• Akron at Kentucky (-36)
• Kentucky (-15.5) at Vanderbilt
• Florida at Kentucky (-1.5)
• Kentucky (+17.5) at Georgia
• Missouri at Kentucky (-5.5)
• Tennessee at Kentucky (+7.5)
• Kentucky (+1.5) at Mississippi State
• Alabama at Kentucky (+11.5)
• Kentucky (-1) at South Carolina
• Kentucky (-1.5) at Louisville

Kentucky will likely be a double-digit favorite in its first four games. From there, expect a lot of 50/50 games. There are five games where Kentucky is a projected favorite or underdog between 1 and 5.5 points. Four games are under a field goal. Six games include one-possession projections. On paper, Alabama and Georgia are the only two opponents that are likely losses.

The season will come down to results in 50/50 games. At Draft Kings, Kentucky is a 26.5-point favorite against Ball State. There could be some Week 1 value with the Cats.