Kentucky Bowl Rundown: Mayo Party

Only three weeks remain in the 2023 college football regular season. That means the postseason picture is becoming clear. On Saturday in Starkville, Kentucky (6-3, 3-3) became bowl-eligible for the eighth year in a row. Where will the Wildcats go bowling? KSR is here to help.

Once per week until Selection Sunday arrives, we will take a look at the bowl picture for Kentucky and analyze where the Wildcats could end up in December. Unfortunately this season, the Wildcats could find themselves down the list when it comes time to slot SEC teams for bowl games.

A current look at the SEC

Entering Week 11, half of the conference is now bowl eligible with a few others sitting on the bubble with three games to play.

• Locks: Georgia (9-0), Alabama (8-1), Ole Miss (8-1), Tennesse (7-2), Missouri (7-2), LSU (6-3), and Kentucky (6-3)
• Bubble: Auburn (5-4), Florida (5-4), Texas A&M (5-4), Mississippi State (4-5), Arkansas (3-6), South Carolina (3-6)
• Eliminated: Vanderbilt (2-8)

Kentucky is one of seven teams in the running for a bowl slot. With at least one more SEC win, the Wildcats should be slotted ahead of the remaining bubble teams. Arkansas and South Carolina are each on the verge of a losing season. Mississippi State has Southern Miss on the schedule but will be a double-digit dog against both Texas A&M and Ole Miss. Florida will likely be a double-digit dog in every remaining game. Auburn should be safe with a Week 12 game against New Mexico State at home.

As of right now, it looks like nine SEC teams will be bowl eligible.

SEC bowl tie-ins

Now let’s take a look at where the Southeastern Conference will slot member institutions next month.

Tier 1

• Orange Bowl: SEC champ goes if not in the College Football Playoff
• Citrus Bowl

Tier 2

• ReliaQuest Bowl
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl
• Gator Bowl
• Music City Bowl
• Texas Bowl
• Liberty Bowl

Tier 3

• Birmingham Bowl
• Gasparilla Bowl

The College Football Playoff gets first dibs. After that, an SEC team can work its way into one of the five New Year’s Six slots. The SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame split the Orange Bowl tie-in. The highest-ranked team will make the trip to South Florida. As we stand right now, that will likely be the Ohio State-Michigan loser.

Any 10-2 SEC should have a great shot at landing in the New Year’s Six. Assuming only one SEC team makes the playoff, there are at least four teams alive for New Year’s Six contention (Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Tennessee).

Kentucky will very likely land in Tier 2 which is known as the “Pool of 6“. The SEC office will work with schools to find the best landing spots. Teams will not be able to go to repeat locations in this group. Therefore, Kentucky cannot go to Music City, Ole Miss cannot go to Texas, Mississippi State cannot go to ReliaQuest, Arkansas cannot go to Liberty, and South Carolina cannot go to Gator this year.

Now let’s take a stab at projections.

KSR’s Bowl Projections

Assuming projected betting favorites win every game from here through the regular season, this is what we project the SEC draw to look like come Selection Sunday.

• Sugar Bowl: Georgia (13-0) in College Football Playoff semifinal
• Fiesta Bowl: Alabama (11-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
• Cotton Bowl: Ole Miss (10-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
• Citrus Bowl: LSU (9-3)
• ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee (9-3)
• Gator Bowl: Missouri (9-3)
• Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Kentucky (7-5)
• Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (7-5)
• Music City Bowl: Auburn (6-6)

Due to conference record (6-2) and remaining schedule, LSU would get the edge over Missouri and Tennessee for the Citrus Bowl as the Tigers would have a better conference record and a higher national ranking. Return trips are allowed for the Citrus Bowl.

A head-to-head win would give Tennessee the first pick in the Pool of Six, and that should land the Vols in Tampa for the first time since 2015. As 2019 taught Big Blue Nation, Gator Bowl is largely considered the next best spot in this group, and that is where Missouri will land. Location makes the Texas Bowl a logical spot for Texas A&M. That leaves Duke’s Mayo and Liberty the remaining choices for Kentucky. The former is considered the better bowl game since the Wildcats are not eligible for Music City.

Heading into Week 11, a return trip to Charlotte is the favorite with three games to play. At Bank of America Stadium, Kentucky would face an ACC foe.

Games to watch in Week 11

***Vanderbilt at South Carolina (Noon | SEC Network): The Gamecocks are one loss away from sitting at home this postseason. Clark Lea‘s team could play spoiler on Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium. That could take some pressure off next week’s matchup when Kentucky rolls into Columbia for a prime-time kickoff under the lights.

***No. 13 Tennessee at No. 14 Missouri (3:30 | CBS): The winner of this top-15 SEC East showdown will have the driver’s seat in the bowl selection process. For the Tigers, a win makes 10-2 and a New Year’s Six berth likely. For the Vols, a win means a likely 9-3 finish and a huge stage when Georgia travels to Rocky Top next weekend.

***Auburn at Arkansas (4:00 | SEC Network): Hugh Freeze’s team needs one more win to clinch bowl eligibility. Sam Pittman’s team needs to win out to get to 6-6. Something will be locked in after this meeting in Fayetteville.

***No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (7:00 | ESPN): Lane Kiffin’s team is 8-1 and not out of the College Football Playoff hunt. Saturday’s game at Sanford Stadium has massive stakes for both teams.