Kentucky Bowl Rundown: Mayo Madness

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Duke's Mayo — (© Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

The Big Blue Nation received quite the palate cleanser on rivalry weekend. Kentucky hit the road and knocked off No. 9 Louisville in front of a record crowd at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Explosive plays and takeaways allowed the Wildcats to run away from the Cardinals thanks to a 31-14 blitz in the last 20-plus minutes of the game.

Louisville fans are now licking their wounds and might get knocked out of the Orange Bowl with a bad performance on Saturday night against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. After a brutal 1-5 stretch to end SEC play, Kentucky enters bowl season at 7-5 (3-5). This is not where the Wildcats wanted to be, but it is certainly better than the alternative.

What did a fifth consecutive win in the Governor’s Cup series do for Kentucky’s bowl standing? Not much I’m afraid. The location almost seems to be locked in for the Cats, but sometimes you can expect the unexpected in the selection process.

Let’s take a closer look at where the SEC stands with Selection Sunday coming at the end of the week.

Where the SEC stands entering Championship Week

The SEC currently has nine bowl-eligible teams with five programs expected to spend bowl season at home this year. That means the conference will not be able to fill all of its bowl tie-ins.

Bowl-eligible: Georgia (12-0), Alabama (11-1), Missouri (10-2), Ole Miss (10-2), LSU (9-3), Tennessee (8-4), Texas A&M (7-5), Kentucky (7-5), and Auburn (6-6)

Florida (5-7), South Carolina (5-7), Mississippi State (5-7), Arkansas (4-8), and Vanderbilt (2-10) will all be staying home for the holidays.

SEC bowl tie-ins

Let’s take a look at where SEC teams will go. With the winner of Alabama/Georgia likely headed to the College Football Playoff, not all of these spots will be filled.

Orange Bowl: SEC champ goes if not in the College Football Playoff (Tier 1)
Citrus Bowl (Tier 1)
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tier 2)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Tier 2)
Gator Bowl (Tier 2)
Music City Bowl (Tier 2)
Texas Bowl (Tier 2)
Liberty Bowl (Tier 2)
Birmingham Bowl (Tier 3)
Gasparilla Bowl (Tier 3)

After the playoff gets first dibs, an SEC team can work its way into one of the five New Year’s Six slots. The SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame split the Orange Bowl tie-in. The highest-ranked team will make the trip to South Florida. That should be No. 2 Ohio State (11-1) after Ryan Day’s team lost to Michigan again.

Any 10-2 SEC team should usually has a great shot at landing in the New Year’s Six, but this year is different with a 12 power conference teams owning records 10-2 or better. Alabama-Georgia loser, Missouri, and Ole Miss all have a case for a New Year’s Six spot, but the Rebels are likely headed for the Citrus Bowl.

That puts Kentucky in Tier 2 which is known as the “Pool of 6“. The SEC office will work with schools to find the best landing spots. Teams will not be able to go to repeat locations in this group. Therefore, Kentucky cannot go to the Music City Bowl, and Ole Miss cannot go to the Texas Bowl.

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Texas A&M’s decision will play a big role

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops just had a strong flirtation with Texas A&M. The Aggies ended all speculation shortly after Stoops publicly announced that he would be staying in Lexington by hiring Duke head coach Mike Elko. However, the Wildcats aren’t done with the folks down in College Station yet.

Due to conference records, Texas A&M (7-5, 4-4) is higher than Kentucky (7-5, 3-5) in the selection order. That will be something worth monitoring this week.

Texas A&M has not been to the Texas Bowl since 2019. The drive to Houston is a short one for this fanbase. That appears to be a top option. If the Aggies would prefer a location out of state, the Music City Bowl in Nashville would make a ton of sense since this program has not played in that bowl game since 2015. If the Aggies were to prefer the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, that could put Kentucky in an unfortunate spot since the Wildcats cannot go back to Nashville.

However, the league office wants all of these “Pool of 6” spots filled. I would expect Auburn and Texas A&M to fill the Texas Bowl and Music City Bowl spots clearing a path for Kentucky to claim the Duke’s Mayo Bowl invite.

KSR’s Bowl Projections

Assuming projected betting favorites win out this weekend, this is what KSR projects the SEC draw to look like come Selection Sunday.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia (13-0) in College Football Playoff semifinal
Fiesta Bowl: Alabama (11-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
Cotton Bowl: Missouri (10-2) in New Year’s Six at-large bid
Citrus Bowl (Orland): Ole Miss (10-2)
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa): LSU (9-3)
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville): Tennessee (8-4)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte): Kentucky (7-5)
Texas Bowl (Houston): Texas A&M (7-5)
Music City Bowl (Nashville): Auburn (6-6)

LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M are up before Kentucky in the “Pool of 6” selection process. Filling the Florida bowls typically happens first. The Wildcats appear to own the inside track for a return trip to Bank of America Stadium where Lynn Bowden Jr. ran wild against Virginia Tech in 2019.