Bowl Rundown: Kentucky appears to be in driver's seat for Tampa

Only three weeks remain in the 2022 college football regular season. That means the postseason picture is becoming clearer. As undefeated and one-loss teams jockey for playoff positioning, the rest of the sport is eyeing potential bowl scenarios.

For Mark Stoops’ 10th team at Kentucky, that means a home in the SEC’s “Pool of Six” which includes the Las Vegas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Texas Bowl, Gator Bowl, Music City Bowl, and ReliaQuest Bowl. However, what happens at the top could shake some things up.

Each week from here until the end of the season, KSR will take a closer look at all of the scenarios at play for Kentucky football. Currently, a spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl seems very possible.

SEC is projected to get 4 teams into Playoff & New Year’s Six

In Tuesday’s College Football Playoff (CFP) Top 25, Georgia was the No. 1 team and is well on its way to a second consecutive playoff bid. However, some other SEC teams are in contention for some premium spots.

Tennessee (8-1) checked in at No. 5 overall and will have a great case at the end of the season. The Vols should be double-digit favorites in every remaining game and could very well finish the year at 11-1. After the upset win over Alabama, LSU (7-2) sits at No. 7 overall and should be in great shape to grab either the Sugar Bowl (SEC champ or highest-ranked SEC team) or Orange Bowl (highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team) bid.

Alabama (7-2) has fallen to No. 9, but the Tide still has a great chance to win out. If Saban’s team does that, Bama should receive the at-large bid to the Cotton Bowl where the blue blood would face the top-ranked Group of Five team. However, that could change after this weekend.

No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1) will host Bama this weekend at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, and a win would propel the Rebels into the New Year’s Six discussions. Regardless of what happens in Oxford, the loser will most likely be headed to a Citrus Bowl bid (top remaining SEC team per Citrus selection).

The SEC has gotten four teams into the New Year’s Six before (2018) and it could very well happen again this year.

That gets us to the pool of six. Currently, Kentucky (6-3, 3-3) is tied with South Carolina (6-3, 3-3) for the top spot. However, the Wildcats will be betting favorites in two of the final three games, and the Gamecocks will be dogs of a touchdown or more to Florida, Tennessee, and Clemson to finish the year. As long as Kentucky gets to 8-4, the Cats should have the top pick.

That selection should be to make the trip to Tampa for the first time since 1998.

Who would Kentucky play in Tampa?

Now let’s get to the other side. The ReliaQuest Bowl is an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup. In the Legends and Leaders conference, Michigan and Ohio State are the clear top dogs. One will likely be headed to the playoff and the loser of the rivalry game will have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

After that, the Citrus Bowl and ReliaQuest Bowl are the next two spots. No. 14 Penn State (7-2, 4-2) and No. 21 Illinois (7-2, 4-2) are the two teams battling for these two bowl bids. Both the Lions and Illini have huge home games this week. Penn State hosts Maryland, and Illinois hosts Purdue. Getting wins this weekend would solidify each program’s case.

Much like the SEC, the Citrus Bowl will get its pick of the top Big Ten team. Penn State could look more attractive at 10-2 and pushing for a top-10 ranking over an Illinois team that will likely be fresh off a loss to Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Both Stoops and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema played at Iowa. Stoops has told reporters at a recent SEC Media Days appearance that the two coaches are friends off of the field. Both programs want to establish the run, and each has a top-15 defense. That could create some really good storylines for what would likely be a ranked vs. ranked game in Tampa.

Game of the Week: LSU at Arkansas

Kentucky appears to be in the driver’s seat, but things can change fast when talking about bowl pictures. Most importantly, LSU is quickly becoming the team to watch both nationally and in the Bluegrass.

The Tigers are fresh off a monstrous home win and currently control their destiny in the SEC West. Brian Kelly is two road wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M away from bringing home a division title in year one. But Saturday will not be easy.

LSU is hitting the road to face Arkansas in the Battle for the Golden Boot. The morning kickoff in Fayetteville could be a supreme letdown spot after the overtime win over Alabama and the Tigers are currently laying only a field goal out in the desert.

The Hogs have a top-20 offense and could legitimately threaten LSU if this game turns into a shootout. A loss would likely mean that the Tigers would finish the year at 9-3/9-4 and would then fall out of New Year’s Six range. That could take away a trip to Tampa for Kentucky.

What happens if Kentucky cannot go to Tampa?

This is the million-dollar question. There is no easy answer.

The most sensible destination would be to the Music City Bowl due to location and good TV spot, but that game is at the same time as Kentucky’s home basketball game with Louisville on New Year’s Eve. That simply makes a Nashville trip very unlikely.

The most attractive location could be the Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 17) in a primetime window on ABC, but that is the weekend before National Signing Day. Kentucky’s coaching staff is probably going to want to have that free for recruiting purposes.

That leaves just three options. The Gator Bowl may not be on the table since Kentucky just went to Jacksonville in 2020. That gets us down to Liberty Bowl vs. Texas Bowl. Both contests are against the Big 12 and occur on the Wednesday after Christmas (Dec. 28). My guess is that UK will pick location, and the Big Blue Nation will get to spend a few days on Beale Street.

Projections Round-Up

Now let’s see what some of the experts think. Here you can find where Kentucky is falling in some of the major bowl projections.

• ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: Gator Bowl vs. NC State (Dec. 30, 3:30 PM, ESPN, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL)
• ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: Music City Bowl vs. Minnesota (Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN, Nissan Stadium, Nashville TN)
• Brett McMurphy: ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Notre Dame (Jan. 2, Noon, ESPN2, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)
• CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm: Music City Bowl vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN, Nissan Stadium, Nashville TN)
• Sporting News’ Bill Bender: Music City Bowl vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 31, Noon, ESPN, Nissan Stadium, Nashville TN)

Only McMurphy is rolling with ReliaQuest. Again, due to scheduling conflicts, Music City is very unlikely to happen.

Kentucky to-do list

Now is the time to focus on what must happen this weekend for the Wildcats to strengthen their grip on a potential trip to Tampa for a third consecutive trip to the Sunshine State for a bowl game.

1. Beat Vanderbilt: There is seemingly no way that Kentucky can get to Tampa without finishing the year at 8-4. That means two wins to close up November. The Cats need to take care of business against Vandy and Louisville at home.
2. LSU handles its business: The top thing to watch this weekend is what happens down in Fayetteville. An LSU win would make things much clearer. An upset win by the Hogs could muddy the waters.
3. Florida takes care of South Carolina: The Gamecocks own the tiebreaker over Kentucky if both teams finish with identical records. The Cats need Shane Beamer’s team to drop some games. Saturday is a big spot as Carolina is a touchdown-plus dog in The Swamp. Kentucky could use a Florida win.
4. Enjoy Alabama vs. Ole Miss: There is another big game in the SEC, and its result could determine who gets into the New Year’s Six and who heads to the Citrus Bowl. Plus it’s Nick Saban vs. Lane Kiffin. And the Rebels still have a shot in the SEC West. Just enjoy what should be a thrilling football game.