Bracketology: Kentucky trending out ahead of pivotal game vs. Mississippi State

You don’t need me to tell you that Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume looks rough with six games left in the regular season. After back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Georgia, Kentucky’s chances of making the Big Dance dropped over 25% in the computer models. TeamRankings.com has the Cats’ chances of getting a bid at 50.3%. BartTorvik goes lower at 39.1%.

Kentucky is now among the “First Four Out” in most NCAA Tournament projections. The Cats’ average seed on BracketMatrix, which compiles all the Bracketologies on the interwebs, is 10.90. With 26 days until Selection Sunday, Kentucky appears in 61 of the 100 projected brackets on the internet.

This week, Kentucky has two big opportunities to get back on the right side of the bubble, but neither is easy. Tomorrow night, they’ll face fellow bubble team Mississippi State in Starkville. The Bulldogs are only 7-5 in SEC play but are riding a five-game winning streak, the most recent win being over Arkansas in Fayetteville. You know, the same Arkansas team that pummeled Kentucky in Rupp last week. We’ve said this a lot lately, but with both teams on the bubble, this feels like a play-in game.

On Saturday, Kentucky hosts No. 10 Tennessee, the team the Cats knocked off in Knoxville one month ago. The Volunteers have lost two straight (at Vanderbilt, vs. Missouri), but a win would still be massive for Kentucky’s resume. Tomorrow night, Tennessee hosts No. 1 Alabama. Maybe the Vols will beat the Crimson Tide, leading to a letdown game in Lexington? We can still dream, right?

While we wait for the actual basketball to take place, check out the latest NCAA Tournament projections below.

ESPN

Joe Lunardi has a new bracket up on ESPN this morning and it does not include Kentucky. The Cats are among the “First Four Out” with Oregon, USC, and Wisconsin. Mississippi State is in the “Last Four In,” along with North Carolina, New Mexico, and Clemson.

In his “Bubble Watch” column, John Gasaway filed Kentucky under “Work to Do” among SEC teams, along with Texas A&M, Florida, and Mississippi State.

Apparently the Wildcats won’t be happy until they extend this suspense all the way to Selection Sunday. With a seven-point loss at Georgia, John Calipari’s team crossed a line official Friend of Bubble Watch Joe Lunardi drew in the sand before tipoff. Lose here, Joey Brackets warned, and you fall all the way out of the projected field. Granted, UK faced the Bulldogs without CJ Fredrick and Sahvir Wheeler. Can a full-strength version of the Wildcats now play its way into the actual bracket? Absolutely, and better defense would help. Including the 47-point outburst Arkansas recorded in the second half of its win at Rupp Arena, Kentucky has allowed 1.20 points per possession over its past 60 minutes of basketball. (updated Feb. 11)

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The Athletic

In his weekly Bubble Watch column, Eamonn Brennan calls Kentucky and fellow blueblood North Carolina “the two bubbliest teams in college basketball” and teases a potential matchup in the First Four in Dayton. Like a lot of us, he seems perplexed by the Cats’ terrible resume. Kentucky is the last of his SEC teams with “Work to do.” Arkansas, Teas A&M, Auburn, and Mississippi State are listed ahead of the Cats in that category.

Kentucky (16-9, 7-5; NET: 46, SOS: 38): The Wildcats are now 1-7 against Quadrant 1. There are teams not even on this page that have a better record against the best opponents on this schedule. Of course, UK has the benefit of a 6-1 record against Quadrant 2, and that matters too, but in some ways the whole “terrible against Quadrant 1, good against Quadrant 2 (at least until last weekend when we lost at Georgia)” thing defines this team for what it is: mediocre. Mid. It’s a bubble team right on the very edge of the cut line (for us, anyway) that also features the reigning national player of the year. There are all kinds of reasons you could dig into for exactly why this is the case, but all the same, we still have not totally wrapped our heads around how weird it is. It is very, very weird.

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CBS Sports

Kentucky is the first team out in Jerry Palm’s latest projections. Mississippi State is the last team in.

Speaking of not playing to its potential, Kentucky is the first team out of the bracket this morning. North Carolina is in despite an 0-8 record against Quad 1 opponents. That happened because Ohio State finally took one loss to many to remain in Quad 1. 

Also, Wisconsin is in despite being just four games above .500 and having a NET ranking of 80. The Badgers do much better in the rankings that do not rely so heavily on scoring margin.

And there are people out there who want to expand the tournament. The best case against that is to look at this bracket. Or any bracket. I’m in favor of going back to 64, but I feel pretty certain that will not happen.

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USA Today

Kentucky is also the first team out of USA Today’s latest bracket.

• Last Four In: North Carolina, Clemson, USC, Memphis
• First Four Out: Kentucky, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Oregon

In the write-up, Eddie Timanus, Paul Myerberg, and Erick Smith go a little more in-depth on their bubble decisions.

Farther down the bracket, there’s good news for one blue-blood program but bad news for another. North Carolina remains in the field and for the moment avoids the play-in game even with Monday’s miss against Miami (Florida.). The news wasn’t so good for Kentucky. A loss at Georgia over the weekend has the Wildcats on the outside, though Wednesday night’s date with fellow first-four candidate Mississippi State could help them climb back in.

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Bracketville

This is one of the few brackets to still have Kentucky in the field, even as part of the First Four. This projection has Kentucky playing Memphis in one of the play-in games. This update came out yesterday morning, so it may not account for North Carolina’s loss to Miami last night in Chapel Hill.

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Kentucky’s Resume vs. Other Bubble Teams

How does Kentucky’s resume stack up against the other teams on the bubble? Bracketologists.com makes it super simple to find out. Here are the resumes of the “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. As you can see, Mississippi State has three Quad 1 wins (Marquette, Arkansas, TCU) to Kentucky’s one (Tennessee). They also have three Quad 2 losses (Florida, Drake, Georgia).