Kentucky back to "Last Four In" in Bracketology

With 40 days until Selection Sunday, Kentucky is still on the NCAA Tournament bubble in most projections. A fresh batch of Bracketology hit the internet this morning and reflects Saturday’s missed opportunity in Rupp Arena. Prior to the Kansas game, Kentucky had moved up to the “last four byes” of most predictions; now, without the safety net of another big Quad 1 win, they’re back down the “last four in,” aka the First Four play-in games.

Kentucky’s average seed on Bracket Matrix is 10.79, with the Cats appearing in 67 of the 80 projected brackets. Bart Torvik goes lower, with an average seed of 9.4 and a 42.3% chance of making the field. TeamRankings.com also has the Cats as a 9-seed with a 60% of getting in. As you know, Kentucky is only 1-6 in Quad 1 games. While Kentucky has one of the best wins in college basketball this season at Tennessee, it also has a Quad 4 loss to South Carolina, a resume buster.

Here’s a roundup of what national media members are saying about the Cats’ chances of making the big dance.

ESPN

In this morning’s Bracketology update, Joe Lunardi moved Kentucky down to the “Last Four In” as a No. 11 seed. In this hypothetical, the Cats would face Oklahoma in the First Four in Dayton for the chance to play 6-seed Providence in the first round. Hello, Bryce Hopkins!

The Athletic’s Eamonn Brennan

In his first “Bubble Watch” of the 2022-23 season, The Athletic’s Eamonn Brennan categorizes each potential tournament team as “Lock,” “Should be in,” or “Work to do.” Kentucky is listed as “Work to do” in the SEC, along with Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State.

Kentucky (14-7, 5-3; NET: 36, SOS: 38): Saturday felt like a totemic moment in Kentucky’s 2022-23 season — a chance to beat a wavering Kansas team exactly two weeks and four wins removed from a road victory at Tennessee that seemed to revive a previously disastrous campaign. Then KU hit a bunch of semi-contested perimeter shots down the stretch, UK couldn’t answer — its offense remains stilted and overreliant on a combination of Oscar Tshiebwe and midrange shooting — and the Wildcats failed to truly turn the perceptual corner. The very average NET and schedule numbers tell a story here: This team, which we candidly expected to be one of the best in the country back in November, is merely OK. Were it not for the win at UT, it might not be in the projected field. Barring a major turnaround, it will likely flirt with the bubble from here on out.

CBS Sports

Jerry Palm also has Kentucky among the “Last Four In” in his latest update, pitting the 11-seed Cats vs. 11-seed Arkansas in the First Four in Dayton. I’m not even sure that’s allowed, but can you imagine? The winner would advance to play 6-seed New Mexico in the first round in Greensboro. In his accompanying writeup, Palm says Kentucky’s win over Tennessee is the only thing keeping the Cats in the projected field — for now.

“Kansas avoided its first four-game losing streak under coach Bill Self with a win at Kentucky. That almost knocked the Wildcats out of the bracket. Kentucky is now 1-6 vs Quad 1 opposition, with that win at Tennessee saving them for now. It is the only one the Wildcats have over a team in the updated bracket.”

Palm and Kyle Boone broke down Kentucky’s resume further on their “Bracketology Banter” show on YouTube.

“This was a huge game for Kentucky because their resume is pretty weak,” Palm said of the game vs. Kansas. “That win at Tennessee is about all they have. They’ve had some questionable losses. They just haven’t really been able to put it together this year and they really needed to have another marquee win. They came up short. They’ll have to try again. There will be other chances for them to do that, but for Kentucky now, they’ve got a resume that puts them in a game in Dayton in the First Four.”

The Road Ahead

So, how can Kentucky get off the bubble? The Cats have five Quad 1 games remaining: vs. Arkansas (Feb. 5), at Mississippi State (Feb. 15), vs. Tennessee (Feb. 18), at Florida (Feb. 22), and at Arkansas (March 4). Win at least three of those and put in a decent showing at the SEC Tournament and you’re probably in — but only if you don’t drop any games in Quads 2 and 3.

Tonight, Kentucky can pick up a Quad 2 win at Ole Miss and another vs. Florida at home on Saturday. Here’s where each remaining game sits on the team sheet according to the current NET rankings. For more on Quads and Kentucky’s team sheet, check out my post from yesterday.

Date	Opponent	NET Ranking	Quad
01/31/2023	at Ole Miss	113	Quad 2B
02/04/2023	Florida	51	Quad 2A
02/07/2023	Arkansas	28	Quad 1A
02/11/2023	at Georgia	111	Quad 2B
02/15/2023	at Mississippi St.	54	Quad 1B
02/18/2023	Tennessee	2	Quad 1A
02/22/2023	at Florida	51	Quad 1B
02/25/2023	Auburn	31	Quad 2A
03/01/2023	Vanderbilt	93	Quad 3
03/04/2023	at Arkansas	28	Quad 1A