Kentucky has close game trend in home contests following bye week

The bye weeks have not treated Kentucky well during the Mark Stoops era. The Wildcats have had multiple blowout road losses to Mississippi State (2017, 2021) and Tennessee (2022) after a week off. Quite often, we see the Wildcats come out rusty after an in-season break. Most notably, the trips away from home tend to go very badly.

However, things have gone better when the Wildcats can stay at home and play at Kroger Field. Under Stoops, Kentucky has stayed at home off the bye week seven times. In those games, UK is 4-3 outright but just 1-6 against the spread.

• Florida 24, Kentucky 7 (2013)
• Auburn 30, Kentucky 27 (2015)
• Kentucky 40, Mississippi State 38 (2016)
• Kentucky 15, Vanderbilt 14 (2018)
• Kentucky 24, Arkansas 20 (2019)
• Tennessee 17, Kentucky 13 (2019)
• Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 35 (2020)

The last six games at home off a bye week have been decided by a combined 17 points. Kentucky has not been good as a favorite, but Mark Stoops has seen his team find a way to grind out some wins. UK used a long Austin MacGinnis field goal make to record arguably the biggest win of the Stoops era in 2016. A wind storm couldn’t stop UK from finding a way against Vanderbilt in 2018. The Wildcats also found a way in 2019 against Arkansas in the first game with Lynn Bowden Jr. at quarterback.

Kentucky has won 4 of 5 at home off the bye with the only loss coming to Tennessee in 2019. In that matchup, the Vols needed a goal-to-go stop late in the fourth quarter to secure a huge road victory for second-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt.

We should probably expect another close game when Josh Heupel brings his third Tennessee team to Kroger Field next weekend. UK will be a home dog off the bye for the first time since 2016. Will the same result follow in another huge game for this program and Mark Stoops?