Kentucky continues to out-offense its opponents in big wins
After a loss, it is easy to look for areas where Kentucky struggles. Physicality. Rebounding. You get it. However, it is much less excruciating to hunt for trends after big-time wins, and that conclusion is clear: Mark Pope’s team outscores its opponent during big games.
Yes, I know how that sounds. Of course, scoring more points than the other team is typically the goal for every team, but in Kentucky’s case this year, volume scoring has been the key to success. In Kentucky’s four wins over top-15 opponents (Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, and now Mississippi State), Kentucky averaged 92 points per game. That, my friends, is a lot. On the flip side, they gave up an average of 87.8 points in these same marquee games. That is also a lot.
Kentucky’s pace plays a big part in those numbers, as they rank 31st in the nation in possessions per contest. However, a super-efficient offensive game combined with an equally efficient defensive performance would save on some Big Blue Nation fingernail chewing at the end of games.
Kentucky is great at offensive rating but can improve on defensive rating
According to CBB Analytics, the Wildcats rank 8th in the nation in offensive rating but an unsettling 108th in defensive rating. If you just look at the SEC, those numbers shift to 3rd and 15th, respectively.
While it has made for some thrilling wins, Pope may need to churn some numbers through a defensive algorithm and string together a series of poetic, motivationally strategic mantras to improve his team in this area.
If Kentucky’s shots aren’t falling, this team hasn’t been stopping the opposing team with regularity as showcased against Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson. Moreover, Kentucky’s offensive efficiency has often been primarily driven by one player in these big games. Whether it is seven 3s by Jaxson Robinson against Mississippi State or seven 3s by Koby Brea against Florida, Kentucky has been propelled to victory multiple times by a guy getting hot at the right time.
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Don’t get me wrong. Out-offensing a team is fun to watch and reminds Millenials and older of the Rick Pitino days, but is it a sustainable way to make a deep run in March? Maybe, but probably not.
Kentucky might not be as bad as the defensive ranking suggests
Let’s not get all Debbie-downer after a big win. The last thing I want to do is sound like a drunken post-game radio show caller or disgruntled message board poster. A deeper look into the numbers might justify Kentucky’s lower defensive ranking, primarily their schedule has been tough. The ‘Cats have played the 10th hardest schedule of anyone in the NCAA thus far and would be even higher if not for a few cupcakes they played earlier in the year. It might not be that Kentucky is poor defensively, it could be that they have simply played some very good teams.
On top of that, it wouldn’t take much of an improvement for Kentucky to shoot up the defensive efficiency rankings. According to Team Rankings, Houston is the best in the country in this category but after about spot No. 10, there is a huge conglomeration of teams bunched together. If Kentucky improved just their 1.001 rating to 0.95, they’d jump from 113th to 51st in the nation. This 0.051 difference is more than the difference between first-place Houston and third-place Duke.
Can they get better defensively? Absolutely. But the Big Blue sky isn’t falling yet.
As Pope says, it is better to focus on what the team is doing, rather than what they aren’t doing. If outscoring every team is the strategy to victory, I’m here for it. But if this offense pairs up with a more efficient defense, the Alamo is the limit for this team.
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