An Unusual Kentucky Derby 148 Phenomenon

In December greetings change to “Merry Christmas!” followed by a brief week of “Happy New Year!” There’s a similar transformation in the city of Louisville during springtime. Some folks will greet you with a “Happy Derby” in the final weeks of April, but that’s not as common as the second portion of pleasantries.

“Who’s your Derby horse?”

Over the next two weeks every casual conversation with acquaintances across town will include that question. The first time that question was asked among friends ahead of Kentucky Derby 148, something unusual happened. Nobody talked.

“Eh, I don’t yet.”

Lack of Frontrunners in the Kentucky Derby Field

“I guess Epicenter?”

Throughout coverage of Kentucky Derby 148 you will hear analysts comment on this year’s “wide open field.” They say it every year. The phrase has lost its meaning, and yet, this year it’s actually 100% true.

The current futures on the Kentucky Derby field only include four horses with single-digit odds. Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, trained by Steve Asmussen, leads the field with only one loss since it broke its maiden at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old. Asmussen has more wins than any other trainer in North America, but has never won a Derby. Like many recent Derby winners, it’s a front-running horse that has been unchallenged down the stretch.

It’s one of only four horses with multiple graded stakes wins, yet this horse still doesn’t feel like the horse to beat on the first Saturday in May. The last two Derby favorites (both of which were beaten at Churchill Downs) entered the race with four-race and five-race win streaks, respectively. There are zero horses in this year’s Derby that have won three straight races. Epicenter may be the best of the bunch, but that would not be the case in most years.

No Bob Baffert

“Well, you can’t throw out Baffert’s horses.”

That tactic has made bettors plenty of money over the years. This year you can’t simply throw some money on the white-haired West Coast wrecking ball. However, Bob Baffert is not completely out of the equation.

Two horses that will take a lot of money were previously trained by Baffert. His former assistant, Tim Yakteen, has taken the reins of Messier and Taiba. The lightly-raced latter upset the former in the Santa Anita Derby, just its second career start.

Let the Cake Bake

“We’ll see.”

Last year I spent at least a month spreading the Gospel of Brad Cox’s Essential Quality. His other horse, Mandaloun, ended up winning the race by finishing second. The Juddmonte colt became the talk of the backside after a couple of bullet works at Churchill Downs. This year there will be another pony that turns heads before dawn beneath the Twin Spires. Maybe that horse ends up becoming my Derby horse. Maybe the winner is the one that your daughter thinks has the silliest name. When picking a Derby horse, it’s better to be lucky than good.