Kentucky Derby 149: Beware the AEs and the Japanese

[Ed. Note: This post was written before Forte, the previous Kentucky Derby favorite, scratched.]

As of deadline, four scratches have reduced 23 Derby entrants down to a field of 19.  Just one year ago, the late scratch of Ethereal Road allowed none other than eventual Derby winner Rich Strike into the field from the Also Eligible list.  Could the same thing happen again this year?  We’ll examine that very distinct possibility as we analyze the 6 races that make up the Derby City Pick 6 on the Kentucky Derby card.

Race 7:  The Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint

As is normally the case, there is no shortage of speed in this dash on the grass.  The aptly named gelding Nobals will certainly be hard sent from the rail.  Nothing Better, Just Might, Artemus Citylimits and Noble Reflection may all contribute to what figures to be a testing pace.  In a very well-matched field, Arrest Me Red looks like the most likely winner.  He won this race last year, and he is one of the most consistent winners in the field with 6 victories from 13 tries.  Both Beyer and Thorograph figures have the son of Pioneerof the Nile rated as arguably the fastest horse in the field.  The Wesley Ward trainee is versatile enough to stay out of trouble but not be burned up in a speed duel.  Big Invasion is another with a win over the course and solid figures but tends to come from a bit further off the pace.  He may benefit from a quick pace if Joel Rosario can negotiate a clean trip.  Motorious is another with a winning profile, but as a West coast regular he lacks experience at the distance with most of his starts coming over the downhill course at Santa Anita.  This is a truly wide-open affair, and the winner could come from anywhere.

Must Use:  Arrest Me Red, Big Invasion, Motorious, Evan Sing, Bad Beat Brian, Oceanic

Backups:  Rest of Field

Race 8:  The Grade 2 Pat Day Mile

Kangaroo Court is dangerous from his rail draw.  He’ll no doubt be hard sent for the lead by Johnny V., and the only question is how far he can take them.  While the preference in these one-turn miles is generally to have a horse cutting back, the Tim Yakteen trainee may just get an easy enough lead that he’s able to find the wire before he’s caught by the later running entries.  At 20/1 on the morning line, Damon’s Mound may offer some value.  The son of Girvin is getting back to his game in a single turn race on the main track.  His figures and running style in such races render him a horse that can outrun his odds.  Echo Again looked like an improved horse in his comeback at Oaklawn, and a repeat of that performance could be enough against this less than stellar group.  There are certainly no standouts amongst this group of sophomore colts and geldings – a theme that will be repeated later on the card – so there isn’t a result that would shock.

Must Use:  Kangaroo Court, Damon’s Mound, Echo Again, Fort Bragg

Backups:  Rest of Field

Race 9:  The Grade 2 American Turf

This full field of three-year old males going eight and a half panels on the Louisville lawn is yet another where no result would be incomprehensible.  As such, preference goes to two of the more lightly raced runners in the field as they may have ample room for improvement.  Far Bridge is unbeaten in two starts and makes his stakes debut in a race with seemingly very little pace, which may be his undoing as the son of English Channel has exhibited a late running style in his first two trips to the post.  Carl Spackler will no doubt be much closer in the early stages, and for that reason he rates as the top choice despite faltering in a head decision to Far Bridge in their debut.

Must Use:  Major Dude, Far Bridge, Carl Spackler

Backups:  Mendelssohns March, Talk of the Nation, Johannes, Mo Stash, Funtastic Again

Race 10:  The Grade 1 Churchill Downs

Cody’s Wish provides some much needed handicapping relief in this spot.  The Breeders’ Cup Mile winner is perfect in 4 prior trips around the Churchill oval, and trainer Bill Mott is clipping along at 24% off the layoff so that issue shouldn’t be of much concern.  If the Curlin colt does happen to be a bit short of his best, Fortin Hill could light up the tote board from the front end in a race lacking much early pace.

Must Use:  Cody’s Wish

Backups:  Fortin Hill, Get Her Number, Tejano Twist, Endorsed

Race 11:  The Grade 1 Turf Classic

Ocean Antlantique, Wolfie’s Dynaghost, and Bye Bye Melvin figure to set an honest pace for the stalkers and closers in this field of 10 older grass runners.  Santin is a horse for the course.  Unbeaten in two prior Grade 1 attempts over the course, the son of Distorted Humor has been at his best over the Louisville lawn.  He’s not been in the best form of late, so he could offer decent value in this spot.  Spooky Channel has been in good form recently, with 2 wins from 3 starts since returning from a 14-month hiatus.  A repeat of his most recent tally in the Grade 2 Mervin Muniz Memorial at the Fair Grounds would likely be good enough to capture this contest.  

Must Use:  Spooky Channel, Santin

Backups:  Up to the Mark, Hong Kong Harry

Race 12:  The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

The 149^th Run for the Roses looks like a wide-open affair.  As referenced earlier in the column, the sophomore crop of American males, as of yet, has done very little to enamor the patrons of the turf.  While Forte has put together an admirable winning streak, there isn’t a horse in the class that has consistently dominated the competition or posted overly impressive speed figures.  Given that, it may be the year to look abroad for a winner.  Derma Sotagake ran a 1 ½ Thorograph figure in the UAE Derby when winning the race on the front end by 5 ½ lengths.  That number is only matched by the top two runners in the Bluegrass – Tapit Trice and Verifying.  The Japanese-bred Derma Sotagake earned that figure going 9 ½ panels at Meydan, whereas the Bluegrass was run at only 9 furlongs.  Mandarin Hero just missed Santa Anita Derby glory by a nose in his North American debut after a rough start to the race.  The 100 Beyer figure he earned in that effort is the best figure in the field from a dirt race this year.  Kingsbarns, Tapit Trice and Mage all look like horses with significant upside that could show tremendous improvement in this race.  Do they have the experience required to navigate a 19-horse field?  With early speed at his disposal, Kingsbarns may not need the experience as he appears to possess the ability to turn the race into a 3 or 4 horse affair.  Angel of Empire is another that has looked very good this season, but like Tapit Trice and Forte his style requires a near perfect trip to emerge victorious.

Must Use:  Derma Sotogake, Mandarin Hero, Forte, Angle of Empire, Mage

Backups:  Kingsbarns, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s