Kentucky Derby Day Handicapping Guide, presented by NYRA Bets

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Overall, the Oaks day races held form pretty well despite the weather – which wasn’t as bad as expected.  Much of that can be attributed to the tremendous work, as always, provided by the Churchill Downs track maintenance crew.  They are without a doubt the best in the business and do a tremendous job of dealing with highly unpredictable weather year in and year out to deliver a racing surface that is almost always impeccable considering the conditions.  We’re expecting a fast main track and a turf course with a little give in the ground, but likely rated firm to good for Derby day.  Here’s a look at the day’s EIGHT stakes races:

Race 5 – The Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile

Not sure whether she can sing or not, but the Bernardini lass breaking from the rail has sure been trending in the right direction in her last two trips to the post.  She’s a player in here if Manny Franco can work out a trip from the rail draw.  Lady Speightspeare has some early lick in a race without a ton of pace.  If Saez can get her to break better than she did at Keeneland, she may well find herself in front.  She doesn’t have to deal with Bleeker Street (who won again on Friday) in this spot and should benefit from the class relief and tepid pace.  In Italian is really the only other pace player lined up here.  She took the Honey Fox field gate to wire, and Irad may be looking for a repeat in this spot.  She’s really done nothing wrong and looms a major threat.  Speak of the Devil certainly appears very well meant for the dynamic owner/trainer duo of Peter Brant and Chad Brown.  Flavien Prat in the saddle is almost always a good thing, and the French-bred filly will surprise absolutely no one if she ends up having her picture taken.

Race 6 – The Knicks Go

There aren’t many standouts in this wide-open affair.  With almost no pace signed on, Injunction becomes sneaky dangerous.  The best race of his life came over the Churchill surface, and it looks like he should be able to dictate the early pace.  Shared Sense ran on strongly to return to winning ways at Fair Grounds in his most recent outing and is difficult to ignore off that effort.  Drawing a line through South Bend’s lame attempt over a sloppy track in the Commonwealth leaves an otherwise viable contender.  He’s won half of his 6 prior attempts at the Louisville oval as well as 50% of his tries at the distance.  Speed figures suggest he fits well with this group.  Necker Island has hit the wire first 5 times in 9 prior trips around the main track at Churchill, and his consistency demands respect.

Race 7 – The Grade 2 Pat Day Mile

Anything can happen in a horse race, but it would take too much time and energy to try and figure out who is most capable of taking down Jack Christopher in his return from a 7-month layoff.  Any one of 11 others could potentially pull off the upset, but it’s quite difficult to form a strong opinion aside from the favorite.  My Prankster with a track and pounce trip?

Race 8 – The Grade 1 Derby City Distaff

This top-level dash for dollars is absolutely loaded with early zip.  Lady Rocket, Center Aisle, Kimari, and Edgeway all do their best running when forwardly placed.  It’s hard to separate the late-running Just One Time, Obligatory and Bell’s the One.  Speed figures suggest the Cox and Pessin trainees hold an edge, but the Curlin filly for the lethal combination of Bill Mott and Juddmonte carries a two-race win streak into this mouth-watering match-up.  Advice here is to include all 3 in the top slot on all tickets.

Race 9 – The Grade 2 American Turf

Eight and a half panels over the lawn for sophomore colts this time of year nearly always presents a handicapping challenge, and this event is no exception.  Main Event, Portfolio Company, Coinage, and Dowagiac Chief appear to provide just enough pace to set this up for someone in the second flight, or even further back.  Red Run was impressive capturing the Texas Turf Mile, and Asmussen is 33% moving horses from synthetic tracks back to the lawn.  Irish import Balnikhov just missed in his debut for the D’Amato barn and is likely to improve in his second stateside start.  Sy Dog is perfect in 3 trips to the post for Graham Motion.  He most recently took down the Transylvania over a “good” course at Keeneland in workmanlike fashion.  Favoritism is warranted.

Race 10 – The Grade 1 Churchill Downs

Now reaching the pick 3 leading into the Derby, and the card is starting to feel a tad chalky.  It’s tough to get past Jackie’s Warrior here – 2 for 3 (2^nd by a neck) at the distance and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs – the son of Maclean’s Music should find himself rather comfortable in front of this group.  Yes, he had to work through the Oaklawn slop to earn his hard-fought Count Fleet victory, but he should be razor-sharp following that effort whereas Aloha West is making his first start since the Breeders’ Cup.  Prevalence is an improving horse that should be taken seriously of his relatively easy score in the Commonwealth at Keeneland.  The Walsh barn deserves respect.  Cezanne’s last work in the Baffert barn came on March 27^th, and the difference between what was expected in southern California and what is now expected from Pletcher is notable – preferring a wait-and-see approach with the classy son of Curlin.

Race 11 – The Grade 1 Turf Classic

One of the more wide-open-looking races on the card, the Old Forester Bourbon can often produce a decent price to juice up the multi-race exotics ending with the Derby.  Speed figures suggest Ivar is the fastest horse in the race, and while there isn’t a load of early pace (which should make either Bizzee Channel or Tribhuvan somewhat dangerous) this horse feels more like a grinder that might appreciate the stretch to nine panels over the mile distance to which he’s more accustomed.  Shirl’s Speight – out of a champion sprinter and a dam by a miler – is another stretching out, but his late-running style suggests the distance may be within his grasp.  Adhamo came from the clouds to just miss in a grade 3 at Fair Grounds in his debut for the Chad Brown barn.  Flavien Prat can typically remedy the wrong side of a head bob decision.  Brendan Walsh adds blinkers to Santin, a 20% move for his barn.  The horse looks like a player regardless, so if the equipment change is a positive – 6/1 looks to be good value.

Race 12 – The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

All in all, this looks like a pretty nice group.  Time will tell.  Call me crazy, but Crown Pride will take some across-the-board action from this wallet.  The competition he bested in Dubai is beyond questionable, yes.  Winners of that race do not have a good track record in this one (though the 2017 selection in this spot, Thunder Snow, did go on to win 3 other group 1s, including back-to-back victories in the Dubai World Cup, following his Derby DNF).  However, his absolutely sensational breeze over the local strip on Wednesday cannot be ignored.  Was it too much?  Perhaps, but the Japanese-bred colt is clearly in fine fettle leading up to the biggest test of his career.  Since Churchill Downs smartly changed to a points system rather than graded stakes earnings, only one horse has come from well off the pace to win – Orb, in the first year of the change, 2013.  Since then, every winner of the race has come from the top flight.  Certainly, that trend will be broken at some point, but it is certainly worth mentioning.  In a 20-horse route race where cheap speed has largely been eliminated, early positioning is quite important.  That makes Epicenter the most likely winner of this race.  His tactical speed allows Joel Rosario to assess the pace and place him accordingly.  His biggest fault is drawing directly inside of Summer Is Tomorrow, the definitive cheap speed of the race – his entry owing to having led a pace-less UAE Derby far enough to maintain a runner-up position and thereby earn the requisite points required for Derby qualification.  Zandon is quite possibly the best horse in the race, but he has a history of not breaking well and is likely to leave himself too much to do in a 20-horse field.  White Abarrio has done very little wrong, with his lone blemish coming in a 3^rd place effort behind the re-opposing Smile Happy and Classic Causeway in the Kentucky Jockey Club over this very strip last November.  The comfy confines of Gulfstream Park have provided all 4 of the Race Day colt’s wins for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.  The question of whether he can replicate his south Florida form in Louisville is legitimate.  Cyberknife has been training exceptionally for Brad Cox.  What did he beat in Arkansas is a question for which we are all awaiting an answer.  Smile Happy has the nice KY Jockey Club victory over the track, but distance appears to be a legitimate question.  Mo Donegal can certainly get the distance, but the rail draw and his late-running style will likely leave him with too much to do.  The former Baffert horses are both interesting.  Messier was not fully cranked for the Santa Anita Derby, did all the dirty work, then faltered in the lane to his stablemate.  There is very little doubt he will improve off that effort, but he’s yet to find the wire first on the biggest stage.  The talent is most likely there, but does he have the heart of a champion?  Taiba could be anything.  The Gun Runner colt has the best speed figures of any horse in the race and captured the Santa Anita Derby with relative ease in only his second start.  There is simply no telling what this horse could be.  That said, he’s not been overly impressive in the mornings leading up to the race.  You have to wonder whether that incredible victory in just his second afternoon appearance took too much out of him.  Disregard at your own peril.  

Last but certainly far from least we must mention Barber Road.  Dearest of friends Jared Hughes, bloodstock agent, plucked this Race Day colt out of the Keeneland November sale as a weanling for a paltry $15,000.  This horse has danced every dance with the utmost consistency and runs like the Derby distance is what he truly desires.  He’ll most certainly be moving forward when most of the field is retreating nearing the wire.  Can he win?  It’s a horse race after all.  One thing is for sure – you will not find a more kind, gracious or humble owner than ex-WalMart CEO Bill Simon – a trainer more in tune with his horses than Johnny Ortiz – a jockey more likable than Reylu Gutierrez – or, most certainly, a bloodstock agent with more character than Jared Hughes.  My hope, as always, is to provide readers with information that might allow them to cash tickets and enjoy their racing experience.  This particular first Saturday in May, my hope beyond all hopes is that this plucky racehorse named Barber Road gives his most worthy connections the absolute thrill of a lifetime – whatever that may be.     

Best of luck to all and Happy Derby Day!