Kentucky doesn't have a bye in Nashville... yet.

DrewFranklinKSR

kentucky-fans-sec-tournament — Kentucky fan Rick Cothern cheers wearing an Elvis wig during a pep rally at Wildhorse Saloon before a game at the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament in Nashville on Friday, March 15, 2019.

Kentucky’s win over LSU kept the Wildcats in good standing for a bye in next week’s SEC Tournament. At 9-8 in league play, Kentucky is all alone in eighth-place in the conference through Tuesday’s results. Texas and Arkansas helped out by beating Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

1 Auburn (15-2)
5 Florida (12-4)
7 Alabama (12-4)
4 Tennessee (11-5)
15 Missouri (10-6)
22 Texas A&M (10-7)
Ole Miss (9-7)
19 Kentucky (9-8)
25 Mississippi State (8-9)
Vanderbilt (8-9)
Arkansas (7-10)
Georgia (7-10)
Texas (6-11)
Oklahoma (4-12)
LSU (3-14)
South Carolina (2-15)

Kentucky also holds tiebreakers over Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, so even with a loss at Missouri on Saturday, the Wildcats feel good about a top-eight seed.

However, there is one scenario that would make Kentucky the SEC’s ninth seed, playing against South Carolina in the first game of the tournament on Wednesday. It is the worst-case scenario for Big Blue Nation and, by my calculations, the only one that costs Kentucky a bye into Thursday.

Here’s what we can’t have happen:

Ole Miss goes 0-2 against Tennessee and Florida
Kentucky loses at Missouri on Saturday
Mississippi State loses at Arkansas on Saturday
Vanderbilt beats Georgia on Saturday

With those five results, the regular season would end with a three-way tie for seventh between Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss, each with 9-9 records. Unfortunately, Kentucky would be third in the round-robin tiebreaker (Vanderbilt 2-1, Ole Miss 1-1, Kentucky 1-2), which would give the Cats the No. 9 seed and a Wednesday game in the conference tournament. Vanderbilt would be seventh, and Ole Miss eighth.

Get the On3 Top 10 to your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

Simply put, Kentucky is safe from Wednesday with any scenario that isn’t a three-way tie with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt at 9-9.

Go Cats and Mississippi schools

Ole Miss can go ahead and blow it all up on Wednesday by beating Tennessee on Senior Night in Oxford, which would ensure that the Kentucky-Vanderbilt-Ole Miss tie never exists. If Tennessee wins Wednesday night, Kentucky will need to win at Mizzou on Saturday to control its own destiny, or hope for an Ole Miss, Mississippi State, or Georgia win.

Not to confuse you any further, but let’s say Kentucky beats Missouri in Columbia; then, there is an entirely different conversation (and a lot more math) about the best-case scenario. A No. 6 seed is still on the table for Kentucky if Missouri loses out, beginning with Wednesday’s game at Oklahoma.

We’ll have that conversation after the final three midweek games play out on Wednesday. Right now, I need an Advil, sleep, and to not think about SEC scenarios for a while.

Go Cats. Hotty Toddy.