Kentucky drops to hit-or-miss postseason status following Georgia loss

On one hand, the Kentucky Wildcats have three of the biggest wins in college basketball this season. Taking on teams ranked No. 2, No. 5 and No. 7 in the latest NET update in Duke, Florida and Gonzaga, respectively, Mark Pope’s group came away victorious in all three — the only program in the nation with three top-10 wins. It’s a historic start, Pope becoming the first UK coach since Adolph Rupp to start his career in Lexington 3-0 in top-10 matchups.

That’s the good news, and certainly cannot be discounted when figuring out the Wildcats’ long-term potential. Evan Miyakawa, the best CBB hoops nerd on the internet right now, put all three opponents in Kentucky’s best wins in the “title favorites” category out of seven total teams. Those are the programs “most likely to win the whole thing,” according to his college basketball predicted efficiency landscape, which predicts per-possession efficiency above or below the average DI team.

Others in that group are Auburn, Alabama, Iowa State and Houston, making up the best the sport has to offer at this point.

The bad news? All three of the Wildcats’ losses are teams featured in the “happy to be here” category: Clemson (No. 41), Ohio State (No. 30) and Georgia (No. 29). “Just make the tourney, then we’ll see,” Miyakawa said of that bunch, lumped together with the likes of Louisville, Arkansas, Indiana and BYU, among other familiar names and faces.

Excellent wins, mediocre losses — even with Quad 1 grades.

What does that mean for the Wildcats? They fall between those two categories, factoring in the team’s high highs and low lows. Their category? “Hit-or-miss,” which features “some (that) will make noise in March, others (that) will flame out.”

Kentucky is included among the likes of UConn, Baylor, North Carolina, St. John’s, Ole Miss and Purdue — 15 total programs lumped together in that ho-hum group. The jury is still out there, unfortunately.

The group ahead of that hit-or-miss category? “Final Four Potential,” which features the likes of Tennessee, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Illinois, Arizona, Marquette and Texas A&M. As you can probably guess, those teams are considered “talented enough to make a deep run when playing well.”

You’d prefer Kentucky push back toward those top two groups, and the opportunities will certainly be there to jump back into national contention. On the flip side, the opportunities will also be there to dig deeper into the hit-or-miss bunch — or even those simply happy to be here, if they’re not careful.

Here's the current college basketball team efficiency landscape, from https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ based on predicted team efficiency going forward.

Teams are in four tiers, and you want to be as far upper right as possible 👇 pic.twitter.com/wRUHaJbW3D

— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) January 8, 2025

Kentucky is currently ranked No. 20 overall in the latest EvanMiya.com update with the No. 10 offense and the No. 50 defense, respectively.

Not the worst, but not the best, either. Plenty of time to get things back on track, starting with a win this weekend over Mississippi State.