Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Eastern Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats are 1-0 following a 44-14 win over Ball State in the season opener. The visiting EKU Colonels are 0-1 after suffering a 66-13 defeat to Cincinnati in week one. The two I-75 neighbors will meet up at Kroger Field on Saturday.  

First things first: Kentucky should win the game. For Mark Stoops and a vast majority of the Big Blue Nation, the style in which it wins will be the focus on Saturday afternoon. The offensive Cats looked rusty or a little sluggish in the season opener but still managed to rack up seven yards per snap. The term “details” has been mentioned many times this week. We’ll get into specifics on that in a minute.  

The defense was excellent on first and second downs. Third down was a different matter. Ball State converted over 50% on the money downs which extended drives and kept the Wildcats’ offense on the sideline. The third phase was nearly flawless and was the most efficient of the three phases by a mile. Let’s get into it.  

OFFENSE 

As mentioned earlier, the offense’s intentions and effort were in the right place vs. Ball State, but the details were somewhat missing in the big picture of things. To many, including me, the offense looked a little off last Saturday. Film study showed that timing and communication were lacking. I felt that Liam Coen’s unit was a little too anxious to make big plays and forgot to execute the fundamentals that make explosives happen. All that can be cleaned up.  

Just 51 snaps were not enough vs. Ball State. But, football happens and some games have a weird flow. Last Saturday was just that. Kentucky did some good things. It averaged 13.4 yards per pass reception, scored in the Red Zone, averaged 6 yards per carry, and managed 7 yards per offensive play.  

Quarterback Devin Leary entered 2023 with high expectations. But, reality stated that he hadn’t played competitive, 11 vs. 11 football since last October. That showed on some first-half throws. Leary did finish the second half completing 10 of 11 passing attempts. He’ll be fine. The UK offense should also be fine. Here are my goals for Saturday.  

Balance Explosion (250 and 250)

The EKU defense had its hands full with Cincinnati last weekend. The Bearcats rolled up 667 total yards; this sum included 229 on the ground and 438 via the pass.  

Pretty self-explanatory goal here. Ray Davis will get his, but I’d like to see more RBs get into the game action. Dane Key and Barion Brown have the advantage vs. the EKU secondary. They should register explosives. But, I’d like to see the TEs get involved in the passing game. There’s no reason that UK can’t rush for 250 and pass for 250 on Saturday.  

Complete 70%

Cincinnati and one-time Florida Gator quarterback Emory Jones completed 82.6% of his passes vs. the Colonels. He also threw for 345 yards and 5 touchdowns. Devin Leary should complete at least 70% of his passes on Saturday. His 58% was a low number vs. Ball State. Overall offensive efficiency relies on the veteran to complete a high percentage. Leary looks to fix that vs. EKU.  

50+ Points

A game’s flow can be weird. Last Saturday’s strange contest was a perfect example. The Kentucky offense ran just 51 plays vs. Ball State. Defensive turnover for a score, kickoff return for a touchdown, and the defense’s inability to get the visitors off the field on third down led to the low number of snaps. I expect the defense to not give up over 50% on money downs vs. the Colonels. This alone should lead to more offensive possessions.  

Cincinnati converted 10 of 14 third down attempts or 71.4% vs. EKU. UC also rolled up 30 first downs. Expect a higher number of 3^rd down attempts and conversion ratio on Saturday. Scoring 50 points is the goal. But, I fully expect Mark Stoops to not run up the score if the opportunity presents itself. There’s a great deal of respect between the two programs.  

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DEFENSE 

Last Saturday’s results were perfect for Brad White. Corrections are more fun after a win. The Kentucky defensive coordinator emphasizes points allowed. Giving up 14 was a positive, but there was lots and lots of film for corrective action. White’s defense allowed Ball State to convert 9 of 17 attempts on third down. 53% won’t cut it given UK’s talent advantage. Much like the offense, the UK defense has focused on details, execution, and communication in the week leading up to facing the Colonels.  

EKU super-senior quarterback Parker McKinney is a threat and a darn good football player. The signal-caller has thrown for over 8,000 career yards and 70+ touchdowns. He’s joined by all-purpose back Braedon Sloan and a collection of pass catchers that can produce yards if given the opportunity.  

Eastern Kentucky accumulated 302 total yards against the Bearcats. McKinney completed 13/24 passes for 177 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Joshua Carter led the Colonels on the ground with 7 carries for 68 yards. QB Cameron Hergott also contributed 40 yards on the ground off just six attempts. The Colonels’ Jaden Smith’s 5 receptions for 81 yards paced the offense. Jalen Burbage (Former Cat Cornell Burbage’s son) grabbed 2 catches for 30 yards.  

The biggest personnel mismatch in the game is the EKU offensive line vs. the Kentucky front seven. The Cats should own the line of scrimmage which could make for tough sledding for Walt Wells’ squad. Deone Walker and crew should wreak havoc on Saturday. Let’s get into goals.  

5 QB Sacks

Parker McKinney isn’t exactly a stationary target. The senior quarterback can move around the pocket and extend plays with off-platform throws. Kentucky registered three QB sacks a week ago and was close on several more snaps which could have led to the total exceeding at least six. JJ Weaver recorded one QB sack. He was joined by Trevin Wallace’s 0.5 and Kahlil Saunders’ 1.5.  

I’m setting the goal at five quarterback sacks. Cincinnati registered three last weekend. UK’s front seven is much more stout than the Bearcats’. UK should get out to a fast offensive start which will force the visitors to abandon the run game which could result in a high number of pass attempts. The odds may be in the Cats’ favor for a sack-happy afternoon at Kroger Field.  

10 Tackles for Loss

More on the front seven. As you can see from this article, I am incredibly impressed by Kentucky’s defensive line and linebackers. The Cats ranked last in the SEC in 2022 with just 54 tackles for loss. Brad White’s group got out to a faster start this season after recording eight TFLs vs. Ball State. Matter of fact and much like the QB sack category, the Wildcats missed on more than a few opportunities for that total to exceed 10.  

Linebacker Trevin Wallace is a name I’ve been screaming for a few years now. He showed why in the opener. Wallace paced the Wildcats with two TFLs a week ago. Joining the star LB were Alex Afari (another rising star) and Kahlil Saunders with 1.5, JJ Weaver 1, Keeshawn Silver 1, and Jamarius Dinkins 1. As you can see, 6.5 of UK’s 8 tackles for loss were from front-seven defenders. Ten is the total I’d like to see vs. EKU.  

35% or Lower on 3^rd Down

KentuckySportsRadio.com’s videos are awesome. We hope you follow along with us by viewing our stuff on the YouTube. I happened to watch Brad White’s Wednesday interview and I could sense, feel, and understand his facial expressions when he discussed Ball State’s success on third down. I know Brad. He’s a calm, collected, and highly cerebral playcaller. But, he’s a former linebacker and one of the most competitive dudes I know. In other words, he was ticked off, to put it nicely.  

I expect third downs to be an emphasis for his defense vs. EKU. Getting off the field in order to give the offense additional possessions will matter. I set the goal here for 35% or lower on third downs. Ball State’s 9/17 conversion ratio was unacceptable. Oh, by the way, I like a mad Brad White.  

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Man, it felt so darn good to watch Kentucky win the third phase in the season opener. Not only did the Cats win the phase, it dominated. Kicker Alex Raynor was perfect by going 5/5 on PATs and nailing FGs from 41, 46, and 46 yards. Barion Brown went untouched for a kickoff return for a score. The Cats also blocked a FG, Chance Poore nailed kickoffs into the end zone and Wilson Berry averaged 47 yards per punt. Snaps and holds were solid. Jay Boulware’s special teams were a thing of beauty last Saturday. Simple goal for the EKU game.  

More of the Same

While I don’t expect Walt Wells to kick to Barion Brown, I do think the Cats can enjoy another successful third-phase outing.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?  

There are multiple connections between the Cats and Colonels. From Walt Wells to CJ Conrad and Maxwell Smith, there are several Colonels with UK ties. We also got the heartbreaking news that the great Roy Kidd was being moved to hospice care. Our thoughts and prayers are with Coach, his family, and the EKU faithful. Coach Kidd is an all-time great. The history of football in Kentucky cannot be written without several chapters about Roy Kidd and his Colonel teams that won national championships. Kidd’s influence on his former players makes for beautiful stories of inspiration, love, and respect.  

I’m just going to say it. I hate this game. I respect and care for Walt Wells and those in his program. I grew up cheering for the Colonels and the Cats. I greatly respect Coach Kidd and everything he did for our Commonwealth. I just want this one to be over with no injuries on either side. Then, I can go back to my Wildcat bravado and root for EKU for the rest of the way out.  

But, tackle football will happen on Saturday afternoon. That means there will be a winner declared on the scoreboard. But still, this one’s tough. I’ve known EKU RB Braedon Sloan and his family for many years. The Sloan family’s seats at Kroger Field were near mine and I also worked with his uncle for years. It’s strange to emphasize that Kentucky needs to slow his production in order to win. Jalen Burbage is the son of former Wildcat and friend Cornell Burbage. I’ve watched several players on EKU’s roster play high school football in our Kroger KSR Games of the Week. CJ Conrad and Maxwell Smith are coaches on the opposite sideline. I love those two. But, at the end of the day, the scoreboard will be working and I want Kentucky to win.  

Kentucky should roll on Saturday; after that, we can reunite for all things Wildcat and Colonel and get on with the season.  

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