Spread Projections: Kentucky could be betting favorite or double-digit dog in remaining games

The Kentucky football program flipped the script in Week 5 with a 20-17 victory over No. 6 Ole Miss. The Wildcats enter the first bye week at 3-2 (1-2) and that is where many expected the program to be in the preseason.

But what about the rest of the teams on Kentucky’s schedule?

Using ESPN’s SP+ rankings, KSR is experimenting with some spread projections by using Bill Connelly’s power numbers. Using a standard two points for home field advantage, Kentucky has a bunch of toss-up games along two more road games as a clear underdog.

Projected Spreads

• Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-13) | Oct. 12
• Kentucky (PK) at Florida | Oct. 19
• Auburn at Kentucky (-1.5) | Oct. 26
• Kentucky (+14.5) at Tennessee | Nov. 2
• Kentucky (+17) at Texas | Nov. 23
• Louisville at Kentucky (PK) | Nov. 30

The Wildcats will likely be a five-plus touchdown favorite over Murray State in Week 12, but the remaining schedule includes a pair of tough road games in November and three toss-up games against Florida, Auburn, and Louisville. Kentucky should only be a double-digit favorite one more time outside of the Murray State game.

KSR’s projected spreads in May have been right on the number through the first five games but that will start to change in Week 7.

Massey Ratings calls for 8-win Kentucky

In the Massey Ratings, Kentucky currently sits at No. 23 overall. Very similar to Kentucky’s No. 24 overall ranking in SP+. Ken Massey’s algorithm is calling for the Wildcats to finish the season 8-4 if you just go by the game-to-game results.

• Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 14
• Kentucky 26, Florida 24
• Kentucky 27, Auburn 20
• Tennessee 31, Kentucky 14
• Kentucky 48, Murray State 3
• Texas 31, Kentucky 14
• Kentucky 24, Louisville 22

As expected, Kentucky can reasonably expect to be in three more games that are decided by one-possession while a true upset will be needed to knock off Tennessee or Texas.