Kentucky football drops in ESPN's updated FPI following Week 1 win

Kentucky football came away with a 24-point victory to open the 2022 season on Saturday, but it wasn’t a convincing win in the eyes of the advanced stats.

According to ESPN’s updated Football Power Index (FPI), the Wildcats dropped from No. 18 to No. 20 after beating Miami (OH) at Kroger Field. Kentucky came out of the gate slow against Miami (OH), allowing a touchdown on the opening drive before taking a slight three-point lead in the halftime break. The ‘Cats would outscore the RedHawks 24-3 in the second half, but not without some question marks being raised before the final whistle.

College Football Top 25 per ESPN’s FPI https://t.co/bY3iCfq2Vk pic.twitter.com/9wwXPAbGHA

— On3 (@On3sports) September 4, 2022

Keep in mind that these aren’t actual “rankings”. Per ESPN, the Football Power Index is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

With most of this week’s results in, Kentucky’s season projections have been slightly modified. The FPI now has UK averaging out with a final record of 8.0-4.1, which was set at 8.1-3.9 last week. Kentucky’s percentage chance of winning six games did receive a very minor bump from 96.7 percent to 96.8 percent. Additionally, the ‘Cats now have a 3.3 percent chance to win the SEC East compared to a 5.3 percent chance last week.

With one of four non-conference games out of the way, the FPI says Kentucky now has the 22nd hardest remaining schedule in the country.

Fun with numbers, am I right?!