Kentucky Football Goals vs. Northern Illinois

Kentucky is a heavy favorite to beat Northern Illinois on Saturday night. For some reason this matchup gives off an early-season, give-and-take game vibe like previous outings against South Carolina or Missouri. Every weekend presents a must-win scenario and this one is no different. UNI will travel to Lexington as the favorites to win the MAC but could possibly be without starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi. My estimation is that Mark Stoops has conducted intense and detail focused practices this week after a subpar offensive performance against Youngstown State. Early-season offensive struggles have been an issue in Lexington before. 

If you think back, there were questions about the eventual 10-3 team during the first part of last season. UK defeated a bad ULM squad 45-10 before taking down Mizzou 35-28 in a game that was closer than necessary. The Cats then barely squeaked by FCS Chattanooga 28-23 in a contest that featured a 46-rushing yard performance by All-SEC RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. The Cats also had a low 356-total yards, three turnovers, and were 45% on third down in the 28-23 victory. Mark Stoops told us not to panic then and said the same after the YSU outing. So, I’m not. 

OFFENSE 

This is where I normally provide an overview. But, there’ too much to get into here so let’s just dive straight into goals. 

Get on the Same Page

This goal refers to offensive efficiency. There are deeper, more detailed stats that outline this issue. But, I barely understand them myself and like to stick to basic numbers. The Cats have looked inefficient at times in the run game but have managed to produce explosive plays through the air. The result: 368 total yards per game. That’s a drop from 424 from last season but you have to remember that number was magnified over the last five games of the season. UK’s 5.7 yards per play is also down from 6.4. 

Kentucky has an explosive play producing quarterback and a bunch of Dudes to catch his passes. The numbers support both. Starting TE’s average 13 yards per reception. The starting three receivers which includes Dane Key, Barion Brown, and Tayvion Robinson average 15 yards per catch. Additionally, adding Chauncey Magwood and DeMarcus Harris into the equation brings that number up to 23. UK is tied for 10th in the nation, second in the SEC with 41 pass plays that exceed 10 yards. The offense has been explosive in the passing game but has struggled on a down-to-down basis on the ground. 

Will Levis is now fourth on the Mel Kiper Big Board and has played extremely well. QBs like Levis are rare and the feel is that the Cats need to take advantage of his last year in Lexington. At times, the senior quarterback has carried Scangarello’s offense. He averages nearly 10 yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. The Cats are going to have to get the run game going at some point this season. Rodriguez’s return will help exponentially but is not the complete answer. Remember, football is an 11-man operation. Stoops reminded us of that after answering Adam Luckett’s question about receivers blocking against YSU. 

For the most part, the run game has sputtered through the first three games. Kentucky is currently ranked 13th in the SEC by averaging 74.33 yards per game. That number is amazing given that the program’s culture is built upon winning fist fights in a phone booth. There are several contributing factors for this inefficiency. First and foremost is the absence of Chris Rodriguez Jr. Kavosiey Smoke is running behind his pads more proficiently following a productive second half in the Swamp. 

UK has allowed 11 quarterback sacks and 19 tackles for loss in twelve quarters of football. The sacks are somewhat understandable due to new offensive linemen and lack of a running game. Plus, a couple of the QB sacks were on Levis. There is plenty of blame to go around there. The tackles for loss is the most disturbing number. 19 is a lot. Getting the offense on the same page against UNI can be defined by balance. Here we go again. Balance. UK will need to rush for more than 150 yards against the Huskies. The Cats should remain explosive through the air vs. the visitors. Northern Illinois is giving up 284 pass yards and 9 yards per attempt. But, UK needs to prove that it can run the football prior to entering SEC play. 

Score a Bunch of Points

Hard hitting analysis right? The Cats have been on the cusp of rolling up big numbers but failed to do so because of missed assignments. The “Little things” have added up over the course of twelve quarters. But, they’re close. They need to get there on Saturday. 

UK’s opponent is giving up 34.3 points per outing. The UNI defense is not exactly the strength of that team. The Cats are scoring 31.3. Coordinator Rich Scangarello and Mark Stoops appeared to be unsatisfied after the Cats’ 31-0 win over YSU. Most of this annoyance must have derived from the Penguin defense’s extended action and time in the Wildcat backfield. The visitors produced far too much havoc. Will Levis was sacked four times. Six tackles for loss were too many as well. That’s got to get cleaned up if UK is to challenge in the East. 

It took former coordinator Liam Coen more than a few games for his scheme to grab hold. I’d like to think that after a heavily scrutinized few weeks that UK will play its best offensive game of the short season against the Huskies. The goal here is over 43 points. How can this happen? Glad you asked. 

UK has scored touchdowns on 8 of 16 Red Zone opportunities this season. The 50% number has been a significant drop off from 2021 results. The Cats scored 39 touchdowns out of 54 trips inside the 20 yard line for 72% a year ago. Finishing drives in the end zone is imperative and should improve upon the Rodriguez return. But, that doesn’t happen for another week. 70% or higher is the objective. 

Clean up the Turnovers

Kentucky somehow managed to win ten-games with a -11 turnover margin in 2021. Amazing. The Wildcats held onto the football against Miami (Ohio) and Florida for the most part. Last week’s game was a different story. UK put the football on the turf on four occasions and lost one fumble. Will Levis threw two interceptions. Got to clean that up. A turnover free night is fair. 

DEFENSE 

Now this is an extremely simple and singular goal. 

More of the Same

The Wildcat defense has played lights out for twelve quarters. Brad White’s unit is giving up just 9.7 points per game. Opponents are averaging 253 total yards per outing including 102 on the ground and 152 through the air. The Cats have been strong on the money down after allowing opponents with a low 17.5% third down conversion ratio. 

UK has been stout against the run and pass behind a defense that has been highly motivated, extremely efficient, and disciplined through three games. Opponents are running for 3.6 yards per carry. Quarterbacks are completing less than 50% of their passes and yards per attempt is 5, which is good enough for third in the SEC and fourth in the nation. The Wildcats lead the conference with 19 passed defended which is listed 12th in the country. Cornerback Carrington Valentine leads the country with seven “Passes defended.” There’s a lot to appreciate and admire about this defense. But, at some point in the season, White’s unit may experience a subpar performance. It happens. That’s why it’s imperative for the offense to “Get on the Same Page” and increase efficiency. This measurable goal here is limiting UNI to less than 5 total yards per play. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kentucky registered another explosive play in the third phase by blocking a YSU punt. The Cats had snap issue against Florida. Goodfellow had to dig a couple punt snaps out of the turf but overall UK was solid last week. Here’s this week’s goal. 

Return for a Score

Tayvion Robinson has been very close to breaking away from the pack on a punt return. Barion Brown has already taken a kickoff to the house. A third phase score will ignite the home crowd and ensure that UK wins the “Hidden Yardage” in special teams. 

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? 

Kentucky’s defense has been dominant. The unit is led by crafty veterans that have produced at a high level. A dynamic group of first-year players on all three levels have been equally as impressive. If there is a question about this team it has been with the offense, specifically the run game. But, so is life without Chris Rodriguez Jr. and five new offensive line starters. This is no excuse, but UK has started three different offensive line combinations in its first three games. Continuity and communication suffers from a lack of “Together” reps. 

Some are describing Saturday as a trap game. I feel that if the Cats had a true trap game it was against Youngstown State. FCS opponents Austin Peay, EKU, and Chattanooga nearly won at Kroger Field. Like I said earlier, there’s a big game feel for Saturday’s MAC opponent. Mark Stoops’ offense has a chance to “Get Right” before traveling to Oxford. 

The Top Ten Wildcats have doubters. Maybe those opinions are based on Kentucky’s offense simply looking different than years past by being a pass-heavy attack. Perhaps it’s because of the logo on the side of their helmets? Who knows why, but the Cats have an opportunity to silence some of their naysayers by producing their best four quarters of the early season against Northern Illinois.